What would happen to TSMC if China gains control of Taiwan?

[jmlobert]

this possibility has always been overblown by Westerners. most probable outcome is it won't happen and both sides continue the status quo indefinitely.

if you like your doomsday scenario though, China would almost certainly take out Taiwan's power grid during an invasion and global chip supply chain would be severely disrupted.

after the war it's anybody's guess. China could lock down TSMC and hoard all the leading edge tech for itself. Western countries would try to retaliate through sanctions but that will hurt themselves equally due to global reliance on Chinese trade and manufacturing.

I agree that the most likely scenario is status quo. I doubt that Taiwan will volunteer to join China.

If there is an actual hostile take-over, Taiwan and TSMC could be cut off very rapidly from any and all technology made in western states, such as all scanners. And most non-litho tools. That would relegate TSMC output to obsolescence rather quickly. Plus, embargoes could then also be implemented to other Chinese companies like SMIC. It would not work in China's favor.

 

[Jert]

Our media conceal the degree to which Taiwan and China are already integrated. Taiwan is represented in China's Congress, for example, and enjoys the right to sail on China's vast internal waterways–giving it a unique cost advantages over its SE Asian rivals. President Xi has relatives in Taiwan and the Taiwanese trust him more than they trust their own politicians.

My Chinese friends laugh at the idea of a purely military takeover of Taiwan. As they observe, one Chinese frigate can sink the entire Taiwan Navy without ever coming in range of its weapons.

More likely, they say, is a bland official announcement that, henceforth, all movement of goods and services into and from Taiwan must clear PRC Customs and Immigration. Otherwise, no changes are contemplated.

Of course, this would be backed up and enforced by China's immensely powerful navy, air-force and missiles, and a picket line of missile patrol boats around the new ADIZ and across the Taiwan Strait which would, a fortiori, become domestic waters, closed to all military traffic.

In other words, business as usual, except that global power would shift decisively in China's favor both through its control of IC imports and exports, and the impotence of the US military to hinder China's move.

Would be interesting to know who these Chinese friends are. I am hoping they are not living on the American soil. "one Chinese frigate can sink the entire Taiwan Navy"?, and "Taiwan is represented in China's Congress"? Seriously??

 

[VCT]

Our media conceal the degree to which Taiwan and China are already integrated. Taiwan is represented in China's Congress, for example, and enjoys the right to sail on China's vast internal waterways–giving it a unique cost advantages over its SE Asian rivals. President Xi has relatives in Taiwan and the Taiwanese trust him more than they trust their own politicians.

My Chinese friends laugh at the idea of a purely military takeover of Taiwan. As they observe, one Chinese frigate can sink the entire Taiwan Navy without ever coming in range of its weapons.

More likely, they say, is a bland official announcement that, henceforth, all movement of goods and services into and from Taiwan must clear PRC Customs and Immigration. Otherwise, no changes are contemplated.

Of course, this would be backed up and enforced by China's immensely powerful navy, air-force and missiles, and a picket line of missile patrol boats around the new ADIZ and across the Taiwan Strait which would, a fortiori, become domestic waters, closed to all military traffic.

In other words, business as usual, except that global power would shift decisively in China's favor both through its control of IC imports and exports, and the impotence of the US military to hinder China's move.

"Taiwan is represented in China's Congress"
A couple of Taiwanese that we never heard of went to China and represent Taiwan in China's Congress. We Taiwanese see them as traitors. (I can not remember their names because they are nobody) Of course they get a lot of benefits for being traitors.

"President Xi has relatives in Taiwan and the Taiwanese trust him more than they trust their own politicians."
I would say 5% of extremist in Taiwan trust President Xi.

You were totally mislead by your Chinese friend. lol

 

[hist78]

Pretty sure the KMT triggered the civil war when they tried to massacre the communists. They "f@cked around and found out" as we say in America. KMT also went on to work with the CIA to develop heroin trade in the Golden Triangle and fueled our drug war in the 80s which explicitly targeted urban African Americans.


American elites are desperate for another war because they think it'll reset their balance books. They abandoned their labor aristocracy to the Chinese in response to stagflation in the 1970s and the CCP used it to pull a billion people out of poverty, which is a surefire way to draw their ire. (e.g. GDP per capita in Bolivia under Evo Morales)

But one of the drawbacks of zero meritocratic accountability since the fall of the USSR is that now everyone is an inept, cynical, upward failson. The revolving doors between public and private bodies in finance, insurance, real estate, and defense have made for such national embarrassments like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the financial "bailout" of 2008 that purged 10,000,000 families* from their homes, the "Affordable" Care Act, the F-35 "Lightning", etc.

I think it's telling that they ignored the F-35 in their latest simulations of China crossing the Straits. War with China will only exist in the imaginations of people who consume mainstream media, all while our elites continue plundering the tax base as the country decays into irrelevancy as a post-WWII economic fluke.

"Pretty sure the KMT triggered the civil war when they tried to massacre the communists. They "f@cked around and found out" as we say in America. "

Your history observation is in line with CCP's talking points. It also can be used to explain why Eastern Europe followed USSR's "leadership" and "vision" for 40 some years.

 

[hist78]

Just pitching in, as I have given thought to this many years back.

I would divide the problem into two parts.
1. If china will take over Taiwan
it's a matter of when, if not IF. While it is better left to defence analysts, more than china..I am more interested in Taiwan's defence strategy. How far are they willing to go.

2. What will happen to tsmc
During the last phase of WW2, US and USSR were acting more like rival . There was a race to capture defence tech assets of soon to decline Germany.
What they got hold of.. (Equipments, scientists).. Acted as foundation for their future space race.
I see same trend here.. China will not let tsmc die.. Consider it like acquisition.. A bigger company like huwei will take over management,.. Change a few things here and there... World will complain for a while.. After few yrs it will be business as usual.

I guess US has games this eventuality (post take over bargaining power).. That is why I see tsmc, samsung diversifying in US to ensure their business continuity.

"I would divide the problem into two parts."

Since we are all talking about "possible" outcome, I'd suggest a third possible result of CCP trying to invade Taiwan.

That is: CCP will collapse due to infighting, power grabs, and uprising that were triggered by the failure of invading Taiwan.

 

[coldsolder215]

Your history observation is in line with CCP's talking points. It also can be used to explain why Eastern Europe followed USSR's "leadership" and "vision" for 40 some years.

Oh that explains the region's growing widespread nostalgia for the USSR after 30 years of western shock therapy and neoliberalism. Or maybe the fact that their life expectancy dropped by a decade as a result of Yeltsin's "leadership" and "vision" has something to do with it.