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US hit 'turning point' with China: Intel CEO

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Madeline Coggins
Tue, January 17, 2023 at 8:28 AM PST


At the 2023 World Economic Forum, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger claimed the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act was a "turning point" in global competition with China. "The CHIPS and Science Act was a clear statement that we are going to win back the semiconductor industry, we are going to be manufacturing it," Gelsinger said on "Mornings with Maria" Tuesday.

"But it was also the CHIPS and Science Act. And many of those elements are for health care, are for A.I., for long-term leadership. So I'm a real optimistic here that our approach to being this open, collaborative, innovative society, The rebuilding of key manufacturing and semiconductor industry is that underlayment for it… I think the future is very bright, and we've seen the most significant step through the CHIPS Act to help make that happen."

In August 2022, Congress approved $52.7 billion for semiconductor manufacturing and research and a 25% investment tax credit for chip plants that is estimated to be worth $24 billion.

The legislation aims to improve competition with China by strengthening U.S. manufacturing, supply chains and national security, and invests in research and development, science and technology.

Pat Gelsinger CHIPS Act Taiwan.jpg


Patrick Gelsinger, chief executive officer of Intel Corp.

Gelsinger noted that the renewed commitment to American manufacturing and the semiconductor industry will help the overall global economy in addition to cutting dependence on Taiwan.

"Everything is becoming more and more digital and everything digital runs on semiconductors. So this is critical to every aspect of human existence," he said. "Where the oil reserves are [located] defined geopolitics for the last five decades; where the technology supply chains and semiconductors are located will define geopolitics for the next five. It's that important."

Intel has grown its semiconductor manufacturing by opening new plants beyond Silicon Valley including Arizona and Ohio. Gelsinger said bringing these advancements into central hubs of U.S. manufacturing show "the Rust Belt ends and the Silicon heartland begins."

While the U.S. and Europe have moved to boost semiconductor industries, Gelsinger emphasized the importance of restoring the "interdependency" of the supply chain.

"So if I could make something $0.10 cheaper, I'd go make it there. But if that caused the consolidation of a single port, a single island, a single place in the world that everything is dependent upon, that's not good for geopolitics. One earthquake, one natural issue, one shutdown, one pandemic issue. All of those caused this radical disruption in the supply chains of the world," Gelsinger said.

"We need to rebalance those supply chains. We need resilient supply chains. And our investments in the U.S. are a piece of that. Get back to technology leadership and have the manufacturing capacity to build and satisfy our industries for the future," he added, noting this is a key focus of the 2023 World Economic Forum.
Gelsinger echoed the concerns of a majority of chief economists at Davos who said in a survey they expect a recession in 2023.

"We don't see any good news in the near term," he said. "I think the first half of this year will be pretty rugged because [of] China [and] COVID, Europe [with] energy and Ukraine, U.S. [and] inflation. So when you look across the three major markets, I don't see any good news."

Despite his pessimistic outlook for 2023, the Intel CEO also emphasized developments in the U.S. semiconductor and technology industries are investments for the "long term" that will manifest in the second half of the decade rather than the second half of the year.

"A three-quarter economic cycle should not dictate a five-year capital build-out plan. You just can't make those decisions. And we see semiconductors doubling this decade. So I need to be building the capacity for that. And it is exactly what Jamie [Dimon] said, that long-term investment strategy."

"So we need the support of the financial sector to go do that. We need the support of our public-private partnerships with government to go do that. And we are underway making some big long-term bets on the future of the technology industry."
FOX Business' Landon Mion contributed to this report.

 
"So if I could make something $0.10 cheaper, I'd go make it there. But if that caused the consolidation of a single port, a single island, a single place in the world that everything is dependent upon, that's not good for geopolitics. One earthquake, one natural issue, one shutdown, one pandemic issue. All of those caused this radical disruption in the supply chains of the world," Gelsinger said.

This was the Globalfoundries mantra early on, fear uncertainty and doubt. It didn't work then and it won't work now. With TSMC building manufacturing plants around the world at a blistering speed (compared to others) the Silicon Shield has never been stronger.

Bottom line: Insulting Taiwan, TSMC, and the semiconductor ecosystem with fear uncertainty and doubt is a VERY bad idea. The people who fan a fire are just as responsible as the person who started it, my opinion.
 
I was in Taiwan for one of the big ones. The whole country shut down for a couple of days but the fabs kept running. Fabs are built tough in Taiwan. Even so, they really are nothing compared to the earthquakes we have here in California. The West coast could just as easily break off and fall into the ocean or Canada could invade us. :ROFLMAO:
 
I was in Taiwan for one of the big ones. The whole country shut down for a couple of days but the fabs kept running. Fabs are built tough in Taiwan. Even so, they really are nothing compared to the earthquakes we have here in California. The West coast could just as easily break off and fall into the ocean or Canada could invade us. :ROFLMAO:

"The West coast could just as easily break off and fall into the ocean".


OMG, are you talking about Max Zorin's old plot to destroy California and Silicon Valley?

I just found out that Mr. Zorin was born in Dresden Germany. No wonder he knew something about semiconductor. 😱
 
Oh yeah? How many minutes did that Taiwan quake shake for?

I was at the Hotel Royal down the street from TSMC Fab 12. It shook for a while but again nothing different than a California earthquake and no damage to the hotel. I think it was in 1999.

The California Loma Prieta quake in 1989 was the worst I have experienced and it only lasted 20 seconds. I never thought is was going to stop but no real damage to any of my houses. Things fell of shelves and stuff like that. We did lose bridges, freeways, and structures. It was based in Silicon Valley where I was working but San Francisco took the most damage.

Where I live (East Bay) we have quake swarms, a bunch of small quakes, very unnerving. And we have droughts then fires and now floods. Not to mention crime waves all over the US. Taiwan is much safer in my opinion.
 
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I was at the Hotel Royal down the street from TSMC Fab 12. It shook for a while but again nothing different than a California earthquake and no damage to the hotel. I think it was in 1999.
That sounds like the Richter 7.3 quake in 1999. VCT says it was 102 seconds, which is moderately long, and the time duration of shaking is what brings a lot of buildings and infrastructure down. That 1999 quake was pretty serious stuff; 2415 deaths, well over 100,000 buildings severely damaged or destroyed. If TSMC's fabs survived it sufficiently to resume production, that's impressive.

My eyes-rolling response to Gelsinger's comment is because subduction zones, like Oregon is in, cause quakes that are far worse than what happened in Taiwan. The chance of a quake like that is relatively small, the last one was in 1700 and the probability of the next one is calculated to be 37% in the next 50 years, but the Richter scale is base-10 logarithmic, so a 9.3 quake has 100 times the power of a 7.3. The only recent North American quake like that was in 1964 in Alaska, and it was a 9.2 that went on for five minutes in Anchorage. Five freaking minutes? I can't imagine that. Not to mention multiple aftershocks which themselves were over 6.5. I don't know how well Intel fabs in Oregon are built, but I doubt any fab on the planet would survive even an 8.0 shaking for five minutes.

And if that isn't silly enough, the most active volcano in North America blew it's top off about 75 miles away from Hillsboro in 1980. Mt. St. Helens.

So when I read Gelsinger's remarks, I was thinking: with your most advanced fabs northern Oregon, you're warning about the risk of earthquakes in Taiwan.. seriously?
The California Loma Prieta quake in 1989 was the worst I have experienced and it only lasted 20 seconds. I never thought is was going to stop but no real damage to any of my houses. Things fell of shelves and stuff like that. We did lose bridges, freeways, and structures. It was based in Silicon Valley where I was working but San Francisco took the most damage.

Where I live (East Bay) we have quake swarms, a bunch of small quakes, very unnerving. And we have droughts then fires and now floods. Not to mention crime waves all over the US. Taiwan is much safer in my opinion.
I lived in CA and OR for over 25 years. I've experienced a bunch of little quakes in both states. One in SoCal was strong enough to get me to buy earthquake insurance on our home. Having been evacuated twice because of fires, I agree that I worry about fires more than big quakes in CA. (We have family in both states.) I agree that Taiwan is probably safer from most calamities than CA or OR, but I have to agree with Gelsinger that the geopolitical risk is real. I think he should stick to that portion of the message, and quit the natural disaster nonsense.
 
I don't entirely disagree with the message that Pat was trying to deliver, because tsmc geographical diversification is way over due, for their shareholders and their customers, or literally for the world economy. But the way he delivered was terrible. At his level he can do better.
 
I don't entirely disagree with the message that Pat was trying to deliver, because tsmc geographical diversification is way over due, for their shareholders and their customers, or literally for the world economy. But the way he delivered was terrible. At his level he can do better.

Agree. That type of speak does motivate TSMC so expect a strong push into EU and hopefully India. The US and Japan expansion have already started. It would be a good sign as well if TSMC expanded the fabs in China.

The typhoons were much more concerning to me in Taiwan. I suffered through a few of those as well but again the fabs kept on fabbing.
 
That sounds like the Richter 7.3 quake in 1999. VCT says it was 102 seconds, which is moderately long, and the time duration of shaking is what brings a lot of buildings and infrastructure down. That 1999 quake was pretty serious stuff; 2415 deaths, well over 100,000 buildings severely damaged or destroyed. If TSMC's fabs survived it sufficiently to resume production, that's impressive.
The epicenter of that earthquake was in central Taiwan, and the shake in Hsinchu wasn't as severe. However, it's still one of the largest I personally felt. (I lived there then.)

Electricity for fabs was restored 4 days after that earthquake, much quicker than that for other industries and households. If you read Chinese, here's a report: https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/6028

The typhoons were much more concerning to me in Taiwan. I suffered through a few of those as well but again the fabs kept on fabbing.

Hsinchu generally does not get the brunt of typhoons. It may be difficult to go to work, but things really do just run normally.
 
I was in Taiwan for one of the big ones. The whole country shut down for a couple of days but the fabs kept running. Fabs are built tough in Taiwan. Even so, they really are nothing compared to the earthquakes we have here in California. The West coast could just as easily break off and fall into the ocean or Canada could invade us. :ROFLMAO:
Taiwan has an average of more than 1.5 major (6.0 or higher) quakes per year.

The Cascadia zone off NW USA (running roughly from CA-OR border up past Vancouver Island) is indeed a 9.5 capability and has about 50% chance in next 50 years. Its centerline is around 200km away from the plants in OR and the energy of a big quake is the sum of rips over 1000 km long. The energy reaching the plants will be mostly long, low frequency ripples. One would assume Intel has modelled this and built for it, since the region is very well aware of the possibility. We have many more "ordinary" rifts in the NW in the 6 to 7 capability range, and feel quakes every few years.
 
The epicenter of that earthquake was in central Taiwan, and the shake in Hsinchu wasn't as severe. However, it's still one of the largest I personally felt. (I lived there then.)
Electricity for fabs was restored 4 days after that earthquake, much quicker than that for other industries and households. If you read Chinese, here's a report: https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/6028
Hsinchu generally does not get the brunt of typhoons. It may be difficult to go to work, but things really do just run normally.

I don't remember losing power from the earthquake. It was mid trip for me so I just stayed in the hotel until my flight out. People were still working in Fab 12. Same thing with Typhoons. People still went to work. Hardcore work ethic.

I remember watching a typhoon from the top floor of the Hotel Royal. Roof tops were flying around and people died. Some people were still trying to scooter and walk around with mixed results. It would have been funny had it not been so tragic.

According to my wife Taiwan was bad luck for me. Mostly earthquakes and typhoons but one time there was a crash at the airport and my stay was extended. I knew a couple of the people on the flight, it was going to Los Angeles. That was a bad one.
 
I don't remember losing power from the earthquake. It was mid trip for me so I just stayed in the hotel until my flight out. People were still working in Fab 12. Same thing with Typhoons. People still went to work. Hardcore work ethic.

I remember watching a typhoon from the top floor of the Hotel Royal. Roof tops were flying around and people died. Some people were still trying to scooter and walk around with mixed results. It would have been funny had it not been so tragic.
I'm surprised. Does Taiwan not have a system that means if there is a severe typhoon during work hours (or directly before them), employees essentially can get the day off?
People walking and scootering around in the middle of a storm makes absolutely no sense.
 
"So if I could make something $0.10 cheaper, I'd go make it there. But if that caused the consolidation of a single port, a single island, a single place in the world that everything is dependent upon, that's not good for geopolitics. One earthquake, one natural issue, one shutdown, one pandemic issue. All of those caused this radical disruption in the supply chains of the world," Gelsinger said.

This was the Globalfoundries mantra early on, fear uncertainty and doubt. It didn't work then and it won't work now. With TSMC building manufacturing plants around the world at a blistering speed (compared to others) the Silicon Shield has never been stronger.

Bottom line: Insulting Taiwan, TSMC, and the semiconductor ecosystem with fear uncertainty and doubt is a VERY bad idea. The people who fan a fire are just as responsible as the person who started it, my opinion.

As a politician, Pat Gelsinger can say what he believes and what he thinks can attract more followers.

The problem is that Pat Gelsinger is not a politician.

In this real world Pat Gelsinger is the CEO of Intel. He needs to maintain and enhance the relationship with all customers, suppliers, partners, and governments (not just the US government) across the globe.

From several his talks in the past two years, his priority seems to be: politics is the first, Pat Gelsinger and his fame is the second, Intel's partners, customers, and shareholders are the last. He likes to making fun at Apple (a long time/former customer who Intel wants to win back) and telling people how risky it is to use TSMC's services (although TSMC is a long time and critical partner in the Intel's product roadmap).

I can't remember any CEOs from any major companies behave like Pat Gelsinger.
 
Typical typhoon/hurricanes would not make huge impacts to tsmc production because (1) all tsmc fabs are in the west of Taiwan. Typhoons usually hit Taiwan from east (Pacific Ocean) and the mountains in the middle of Taiwan would significantly weaken the impacts on west of Taiwan (2) tsmc fabs are not in the low altitude areas so fabs are unlikely influenced by flood (3) the "typhoon day-off" (announced by local government when rainfall/wind exceed certain levels) is not mandatory so tsmc still can ask fab employees to work if necessary (though employee would not be punished if they don't go to work).
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Earthquakes make much larger impacts to fabs. Most of large earthquakes occur in the east of Taiwan so not make large impacts to tsmc's fabs (it might also be one of the reason that tsmc hasn't build any fab in the east of Taiwan). The notable two earthquakes: 1999 (Sep 21) earthquake is the largest one (in the center of Taiwan) in the past 50 years and caused >2000 people died. And tsmc lost over 300 million US dollars. 2016 southern earthquake though the scale is smaller than 1999 earthquake, but it's close to Tainan Science Park where tsmc's Fab 14 (for 16/20nm) located. So it also caused few hundred million dollars lost.
 
Typical typhoon/hurricanes would not make huge impacts to tsmc production because (1) all tsmc fabs are in the west of Taiwan. Typhoons usually hit Taiwan from east (Pacific Ocean) and the mountains in the middle of Taiwan would significantly weaken the impacts on west of Taiwan (2) tsmc fabs are not in the low altitude areas so fabs are unlikely influenced by flood (3) the "typhoon day-off" (announced by local government when rainfall/wind exceed certain levels) is not mandatory so tsmc still can ask fab employees to work if necessary (though employee would not be punished if they don't go to work).
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Earthquakes make much larger impacts to fabs. Most of large earthquakes occur in the east of Taiwan so not make large impacts to tsmc's fabs (it might also be one of the reason that tsmc hasn't build any fab in the east of Taiwan). The notable two earthquakes: 1999 (Sep 21) earthquake is the largest one (in the center of Taiwan) in the past 50 years and caused >2000 people died. And tsmc lost over 300 million US dollars. 2016 southern earthquake though the scale is smaller than 1999 earthquake, but it's close to Tainan Science Park where tsmc's Fab 14 (for 16/20nm) located. So it also caused few hundred million dollars lost.

TSMC would not ask employees to come in but employees knew it was expected or they just had to get work done. With earthquakes there were lost wafers that were in process that had to be scrapped. I remember writing about this. https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/tsmc/480-tsmc-earthquake-damage-redo/
 
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