True, but TSMC will get hit harder than almost every other company.
Intel probably will benefit, assuming Samsung gets dragged into it too. If not, Samsung could benefit the most. Intel will lose sales to China and Taiwan, but being the only game in town, their sales everywhere else will depend almost entirely on their fab capacity, which will not be impacted, and is growing aggressively.
I wouldn't buy TSMC, especially after this dismal report. Not that they don't make compelling technology, but the price is largely dependent on them remaining clearly superior to their competitors in technology, which is far from certain. To put it another way, they are worth almost 4x what Intel is. They have much less potential, given they don't sell their own products. On the other hand, they are currently very successful, despite this miserable quarter, whereas Intel's recent quarter would make TSMC's look spectacularly good.
But, their landscape is going to get a lot more complicated as IFS builds up, and it already is. Plus, even TSMC is careful to not to mention performance superiority with their process, they are already inferior in this metric, and it's clearly going to get worse. Whether their tech remains ahead in density and power is another story, it's certainly conceivable, but hardly certain with Intel's nodes that will be available by 2025. And Samsung isn't exactly going away.
And even if Intel doesn't take big market share quickly, which is almost a certainty they will not, just having them around and with all the extra capacity being built by everyone, will give companies using fabs more leverage. And then there's Samsung lurking. And IBM licensing their tech. Just seems like too many things can happen, and none of them good for TSMC; they are pretty much already in best case. What else can they do, have the leading tech and win huge orders from Apple, NVIDIA, AMD and even Intel? Already there. And they are priced accordingly.
Almost four times Intel just doesn't make sense to me. It's a nice company, in a nice position, but it's much more difficult to see them doubling than Intel, for example. Much more difficult. And so many risks, especially considering geo-political, which even is going to weigh on them even if nothing does happen. Because, it can, and companies are going to limit their risks if they can.
