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My guess for earliest intercept is launching the M4 with a launch during the summer (with the large die ultra and max chips coming at a later time like with M2). Option two is the 2026 iPhone. TSMC mentioned how brutal the process flow durations are getting, so it would not surprise me if Apple just needs to start iPhone HVM earlier than they are used to just to have a product on shelves in September (since the phones then need to go to china for assembly and shipped by boat world wide just to get to warehouses for distribution). One extra piece of evidence that might support this theory is that TSMC claimed N3 stated HVM at the end of 2022 and we didn’t see N3 anything until the 15 pro in September.
TSMC stock price trades with a China military threat discount and always will until the majority of fabs are outside Taiwan or PRC leadership changes and becomes less hawkish. In other words, not anytime soon.
FWIW - Apple’s iPhone business in 2022/2023 dropped from $66B in revenue to $51B from calendar Q4 to Q1, a drop of roughly 23%. Some prior years have been steeper, though many similar (source: Statista).
It looks like TSMC’s revenue drop for N3 is probably just that as (I believe) it’s the vast majority of N3 revenue right now.
My guess for earliest intercept is launching the M4 with a launch during the summer (with the large die ultra and max chips coming at a later time like with M2). Option two is the 2026 iPhone. TSMC mentioned how brutal the process flow durations are getting, so it would not surprise me if Apple just needs to start iPhone HVM earlier than they are used to just to have a product on shelves in September (since the phones then need to go to china for assembly and shipped by boat world wide just to get to warehouses for distribution). One extra piece of evidence that might support this theory is that TSMC claimed N3 stated HVM at the end of 2022 and we didn’t see N3 anything until the 15 pro in September.
For Apple to use N2 for iPhones it has to be frozen with PDK 1.0 in Q4 with production starting in Q2 the following year. The Mx processor will probably be the first N2 chip. Apple will use an optimized N3 version this year which will give the Ax SoC a big boost from last year. I will buy a new iPhone since I skipped the first N3 version.
It's not a one-to-one replacement situation. A lot of PRC's semiconductor import are used for assembling products for export. The choices of the chip selections are controlled by those foreign companies who use PRC's assembly lines.
True. I wonder what the China consumer market for semiconductors is? Higher than the US? Certainly more smartphones which is the drop we were talking about.
