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TSMC November 2022 Revenue Report 50% Revenue Jump!

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
TSMC November 2022 Revenue Report

HSINCHU, Taiwan, R.O.C. – Dec. 9, 2022 - TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today
announced its net revenue for November 2022: On a consolidated basis, revenue for November
2022 was approximately NT$222.71 billion, an increase of 5.9 percent from October 2022 and an
increase of 50.2 percent from November 2021. Revenue for January through November 2022
totaled NT$2,071.33 billion, an increase of 44.6 percent compared to the same period in 2021.

TSMC Monthly 2022 November.jpg


TSMC Spokesperson:
Wendell Huang
Vice President and CFO
Tel: 886-3-505-5901

Media Contacts:
Nina Kao
Head of Public Relations
Tel: 886-3-563-6688 ext.7125036
Mobile: 886-988-239-163
E-Mail: nina_kao@tsmc.com

Ulric Kelly
Public Relations
Tel: 886-3-563-6688 ext. 7126541
Mobile: 886-978-111-503
E-Mail: ukelly@tsmc.com
 
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Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
KEY POINTS
  • -TSMC, which makes chips for other companies, said November revenue totaled 222.71 billion new Taiwan dollars ($7.27 billion), a 50.2% year-over-year rise.
  • -One analyst said “high-end smartphones” including the A16 chip for Apple’s iPhone and the latest semiconductor from Qualcomm contributed the “majority of its (TSMC’s) seasonal strength.”
  • -Earlier this week, TSMC announced the opening of a second chip plant in Arizona, upping its investment in the state from $12 billion to $40 billion.

 

Mooredaddy

Active member
This has been an exceptionally strong year. I wonder how growth looks next year. Surely it must slow down from this torrid pace no?
 

hist78

Well-known member
Because the exchange rate fluctuated throughout the year, it's hard to pin point TSMC full year revenue in the US dollar term. Base on the January to November revenue, I think TSMC will reach 2022 full year revenue between US$77 billion to $80 billion.
 

Mooredaddy

Active member
Because the exchange rate fluctuated throughout the year, it's hard to pin point TSMC full year revenue in the US dollar term. Base on the January to November revenue, I think TSMC will reach 2022 full year revenue between US$77 billion to $80 billion.
Likely to hit $100 billion/year by end of 2023 don’t you think? The scale is truly enormous.
 
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hist78

Well-known member
Likely to his $100 billion/year by end of 2023 don’t you think? The scale is truly enormous.

Because the economy slow down, I think TSMC 2023 revenue will be approaching US$100 billion but not reaching or exceeding $100 billion. But who knows. The society and market are changing fast that new demand and new applications can come out to surprise us.
 

Mooredaddy

Active member
Because the economy slow down, I think TSMC 2023 revenue will be approaching US$100 billion but not reaching or exceeding $100 billion. But who knows. The society and market are changing fast that new demand and new applications can come out to surprise us.
With N3 massively ramping next year my personal base case is $100 billion of revenue for TSMC next year. January will be very telling when we get yearly guidance from management. This was already a down year for semis and yet TSMC still blew the doors off of revenue growth. If inventory finishes its correction at any point in the first half next year as been guided by CC I’d expect next year to be very good as well. I’m more curious about Intels earnings truth be told as I’d like to see if things are going to be turned around in the right direction or further deterioration. Also anyone have a good read on Samsung? I find their financials so hard to parse especially the semi side of the business as everything is so amalgamated.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
With N3 massively ramping next year my personal base case is $100 billion of revenue for TSMC next year. January will be very telling when we get yearly guidance from management. This was already a down year for semis and yet TSMC still blew the doors off of revenue growth. If inventory finishes its correction at any point in the first half next year as been guided by CC I’d expect next year to be very good as well. I’m more curious about Intels earnings truth be told as I’d like to see if things are going to be turned around in the right direction or further deterioration. Also anyone have a good read on Samsung? I find their financials so hard to parse especially the semi side of the business as everything is so amalgamated.
My bet would be 2024. Apple will be the only N3 HVM next year. N3E will be HVM in 2024 for most of the biggies? AMD, Nvidia, Qcom, Intel, etc…

$100B, that is going to be a party!!!
 

M. Y. Zuo

Member
But hasn't the total amount of USD in existence also increased by 50% in the last 3 years?


What's the true growth after adjustment for real inflation?
 

Mooredaddy

Active member
But hasn't the total amount of USD in existence also increased by 50% in the last 3 years?


What's the true growth after adjustment for real inflation?
As someone with an economics background, it doesn’t quite work like that. The majority of USD that was conjured into commercial bank reserves by FED open market operations had no real velocity through the system beyond sitting on bank reserves to ensure financial markets were sufficiently lubricated. Inflation did and still is the result but it’s not quite 50% more money in practical terms. There will be empirical studies on this but my personal impression is about 20% more USD actually made its way to into the economy with sufficient velocity. Still way too much in retrospect but it’s important to remember just how scary the first days of covid truly were. I still remember the eerie silence in my city. Economic activity was in danger of completely seizing up. That being said Treasuries are now rolling off the FED balance sheet to the tune of $100 billion a month and the economy is taking it about as well as you could expect which shows just how much really wasn’t percolating throughout the economy. It was just sitting there. Side note this shows just how much of a economic juggernaut the U.S is, the economy is simultaneously taking very aggressive hikes in the FED funds rate and balance sheet roll off without totally falling apart. I don’t think any other economy on earth could withstand that as well as the U.S has. All my opinion of course.
 

hist78

Well-known member
But hasn't the total amount of USD in existence also increased by 50% in the last 3 years?


What's the true growth after adjustment for real inflation?
It's a good question but I'm afraid that there isn't any good way to calculate the inflation adjusted "true" growth of TSMC.

For example:

1. Which country's inflation rate should we use in the calculation? US, EU, Mainland China, or Taiwan's?

The Taiwan's inflation rates for the past several years were less than 2% while US inflation rates were much higher.

2. We can't tell the the distribution of the reasons/types/quantity of the increased revenue. TSMC keeps adding/adjusting new/old products and services and keeps raising and dropping prices all the time.

3. The exchange rate fluctuated all the time.
 

M. Y. Zuo

Member
As someone with an economics background, it doesn’t quite work like that. The majority of USD that was conjured into commercial bank reserves by FED open market operations had no real velocity through the system beyond sitting on bank reserves to ensure financial markets were sufficiently lubricated. Inflation did and still is the result but it’s not quite 50% more money in practical terms. There will be empirical studies on this but my personal impression is about 20% more USD actually made its way to into the economy with sufficient velocity. Still way too much in retrospect but it’s important to remember just how scary the first days of covid truly were. I still remember the eerie silence in my city. Economic activity was in danger of completely seizing up. That being said Treasuries are now rolling off the FED balance sheet to the tune of $100 billion a month and the economy is taking it about as well as you could expect which shows just how much really wasn’t percolating throughout the economy. It was just sitting there. Side note this shows just how much of a economic juggernaut the U.S is, the economy is simultaneously taking very aggressive hikes in the FED funds rate and balance sheet roll off without totally falling apart. I don’t think any other economy on earth could withstand that as well as the U.S has. All my opinion of course.
Thanks for the detail.

The 30% extra that didn't make it into anyone's spending but did sit in the collective balance sheet, didn't do anything?

Am I reading it right, that it had literally zero effect? It seems a bit counterintuitive.
 

M. Y. Zuo

Member
It's a good question but I'm afraid that there isn't any good way to calculate the inflation adjusted "true" growth of TSMC.

For example:

1. Which country's inflation rate should we use in the calculation? US, EU, Mainland China, or Taiwan's?

The Taiwan's inflation rates for the past several years were less than 2% while US inflation rates were much higher.

2. We can't tell the the distribution of the reasons/types/quantity of the increased revenue. TSMC keeps adding/adjusting new/old products and services and keeps raising and dropping prices all the time.

3. The exchange rate fluctuated all the time.
Hmm perhaps a better way would be to calculate things from the opposite direction.

That is divide the metrics by the world's overall metrics, such as GDP, GNP, etc... And see what fraction of all human activity is made up by TSMC.
 

blueone

Well-known member
Hmm perhaps a better way would be to calculate things from the opposite direction.

That is divide the metrics by the world's overall metrics, such as GDP, GNP, etc... And see what fraction of all human activity is made up by TSMC.
Worldwide GDP is about $96 trillion...
 

Mooredaddy

Active member
Thanks for the detail.

The 30% extra that didn't make it into anyone's spending but did sit in the collective balance sheet, didn't do anything?

Am I reading it right, that it had literally zero effect? It seems a bit counterintuitive.
The FED essentially pumped the banks full of money to make sure they wouldn’t be afraid to lend to people because of how uncertain the economic situation was. Two things happened after that. One, the economy roared back way faster and stronger then expected so banks really didn’t need that money after all. Secondly, the Federal government started going ham with issuing stimulus of its own (child tax benefit, recovery checks etc) this money was the true driver of inflation IMO as clearly too much money was given out and people claimed benefits/checks they didn’t really need. All the money the FED created really went into rainy day funds for the banks which didn’t need them
because stimulus checks resulted in rapid consumer debt drawdown and low loan delinquencies. Banks then had no qualms issuing loans out and money fed created really just sat there.
 

M. Y. Zuo

Member
Worldwide GDP is about $96 trillion...
Well for 2021, the estimated figures for 2022 from the IMF is $101.5 trillion, a 5.7% growth rate.

Which would put TSMC's growth relative to the world at 43-44%?

I'm not enough of a financial wizard to know how to translate that into real growth, since every country experienced inflation differently... but it does give a solid sense of relative growth.

This is tangential to the topic at hand but it does make me think measuring YoY in terms of currency is too abstract, since what humans actually care about YoY is the difference in how much tangible goods and services they have the ability to purchase.

In TSMC's case, this would be how much land, electricity, raw materials, machines, labor hours, etc., they can afford to purchase in 2022 vs 2021.
 
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Mooredaddy

Active member
Well for 2021, the estimated figures for 2022 from the IMF is $101.5 trillion, a 5.7% growth rate.

Which would put TSMC's growth relative to the world at 43-44%?

I'm not enough of a financial wizard to know how to translate that into real growth, since every country experienced inflation differently... but it does give a solid sense of relative growth.

This is tangential to the topic at hand but it does make me think measuring YoY in terms of currency is meaningless, since what humans actually care about YoY is the difference in how much tangible goods and services they have the ability to purchase.

In TSMC's case, this would be how much land, electricity, raw materials, machines, labor hours, etc., they can afford to purchase in 2022 vs 2021.
I think it would be quite complex to sufficiently accurately figure out how much of TSMC’s revenue growth is derived from organic growth or inflation pricing. It would involve modelling TSMC’s pricing power and its component reaction functions of both TSMC’s customers and competitors. An easier reasonably accurate proxy for this would be the comparison of TSMC’s competitors. Have they been able to raise pricing to the same degree, what is their revenue growth etc? Inflation pricing can only get you so far in the revenue growth game if your competitor offers a reasonably comparable alternative at better prices. This answer to this is no IMO. Samsung has not been able to raise prices anywhere near the degree TSMC has been able to and their foundry division financials show it.
 

cliff

Active member
Don't be penny wise and dollar foolish. Throw your numbers out the window. Times, they are a changin...

HBM, interposers, exotic memories, and finfets (16-12 included) are game changers. Big, slow, power hungry SOC + big board => SIP + little board with lower power and higher speeds makes existing circuits obsolete.

The semiconductor companies are oligopoly of a necessity. Chips are not a luxury. Countries will subsidize. They will print the money for defense and economy and tariff foreign goods.

Inflation (and regulations) help existing companies and blocks startups. Raise the prices. We will pay it.

Automation replaces striking workers.

Fast hardware is making AI more feasible. 100s of billions of dollars yearly on chips and packaging changes everything.
 
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