Recently, there are rumors that Intel’s Lunar Lake processor to be launched next year will be manufactured using TSMC’s 3nm process for the first time, which is expected to bring orders of more than 14 billion US dollars to TSMC. Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Lu Xingzhi issued an article saying that Intel will become TSMC’s second largest customer for 3nm, and AMD may be in danger.
Lu Xingzhi said that he recently heard that TSMC will receive orders of nearly US$4 billion and more than US$10 billion from Intel in 2024/2025 respectively. He also gave five points of analysis , saying that Intel really needs TSMC and will become the second largest customer of TSMC's 3nm foundry by 2025 at the earliest. He also bluntly said that TSMC's foundry capabilities are too strong and "as long as it is used, it will be difficult to go back." .
1. TSMC may prepare 15k/m 3nm production capacity for Intel by the end of next year and 30k/m 3nm production capacity the year after that. However, in this way, Intel will become TSMC's top three customers in 2025 and the third largest 3nm OEM. 2 major customers, if true, is AMD in danger?
2. As a result, Intel will contribute at least 5% of TSMC’s revenue growth momentum every year, accounting for 8% next year and 12% the year after.
3. Although Intel seems to be still talking tough on the surface, claiming that it will only release single GPU (graphics processor) and high-speed I/O chips, starting from Lunar Lake, it will include compute tiles. The conclusion is that using TSMC as an OEM is like taking drugs. Once you use it, it will be difficult to go back.
4. For Intel, if in-house production capacity remains unchanged and foundry production capacity increases by 19~20% of total production capacity every year, the revenue contribution of foundry products will reach 28% in 2024 and 44% in 2025. If true, , this number is frighteningly high.
5. Lu Xingzhi believes that the conclusion is that Intel needs TSMC's help because there are many benefits to TSMC, including advanced production capacity, reduced manufacturing and process R&D costs, saving capital expenditures to pay more cash dividends, and reducing depreciation expenses, and Provide more competitive product prices.