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Trump 'unlikely to take the initiative to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip' with Beijing, Bonnie Glaser says

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Some analysts are saying that American support for Taiwan could be conditional under next president Donald Trump, and that he could use Taiwan as a bargaining chip. What does a second Trump term mean for Taiwan, especially with a Republican-controlled Congress?


AI Summary:

Trump’s Taiwan Policy and U.S.-China Relations​

  • After his 2016 election, Trump initially leveraged Taiwan for trade negotiations with China but failed. Beijing demanded adherence to the one-China policy before engaging, and Trump reaffirmed this policy after taking office.

  • In 2017, Trump developed a positive rapport with Xi Jinping, refraining from direct engagement with Taiwan’s leadership to maintain this relationship.

  • Trump may avoid using Taiwan as a bargaining chip in the future but could consider concessions on Taiwan if it aligns with his broader goals.

Taiwan Strait Tensions​

  • Speculation about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan between 2027-2030 remains, but experts cite China’s economic challenges and military instability as factors reducing the likelihood.

  • Military purges in China since 2023, including high-ranking officers, suggest concerns over the readiness of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for such an operation.

  • Beijing’s “grey zone” tactics—coercion without open conflict—seek to isolate Taiwan and deter independence.

U.S., Taiwan, and Regional Dynamics​

  • Taiwan is a vital U.S. partner, being the 8th largest trading partner and a leading semiconductor producer.

  • The U.S. seeks to maintain the cross-strait status quo while equipping Taiwan for self-defense under the Taiwan Relations Act.

  • Countries like Japan and G7 allies are enhancing deterrence through defense investments and freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait.

Risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea​

  • The South China Sea currently poses a higher risk of U.S.-China conflict due to frequent naval and aerial encounters.

  • While tensions in the Taiwan Strait could escalate due to deliberate Chinese actions, the South China Sea remains volatile, with risks of accidental clashes involving U.S., allied, and Chinese forces.

Broader Implications​

  • Taiwan’s geostrategic importance, democratic values, and economic contributions make it central to U.S. policy.

  • Any Chinese aggression toward Taiwan could destabilize U.S. alliances, undermine regional security, and disrupt global supply chains.

  • Collaborative deterrence strategies among like-minded nations are essential to maintaining peace in the region.

Who is Bonnie Glaser:​


Bonnie Glaser is a prominent expert on Asia-Pacific security issues, particularly U.S.-China relations and cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan. She is currently the Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), where she focuses on policies to foster regional stability, strengthen U.S. alliances, and address challenges posed by China.

Previously, Glaser was the Director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She has written extensively on Chinese foreign policy, Taiwan, and broader security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. Her work often explores China's military modernization, regional strategy, and implications for U.S. policy.

Glaser frequently appears in academic forums, public discussions, and media as a respected voice on East Asia and U.S.-China relations. She is also known for her expertise on cross-Strait dynamics and her contributions to better understanding the strategic calculations of both Beijing and Taipei.
 
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