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Trump, good or bad for the tech sector?

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
Will Trump help or hurt the tech sector and who will he put in charge of this increasingly critical part of the US economy? The tech sector is extremely important and how the Trump administration deals with it as far as finances, education, trade and several very important factors may determine the fate of the economy both good and bad. He has embraced many tech leaders, any thoughts on what team or group Trump will listen to? Any expansions on this area would also be appreciated. Also will he try to tame the hacking and crime which is becoming widespread on the consumer end? How will he deal with Taiwan? Thanks
 
Musk I feel will be a valuable asset. He is a proven hard worker and Vance seems to be pretty sharp. It's the leader that can assemble the best team. I dealt personally with a tech that delt directly with Trump and Leona Helmsley who left her fortune to her dogs and he said Trump was very sharp at wheeling and dealing with New York government and unions on top of the numerous challenges of New York city. He also stated that Trump knew what it took to have top end communications system expected in trophy New York buildings. The rest I don't know.
 
I think it is all tied to the global economy. If his actions damage the economy in general, then chip demand will wane. If the global economy overall does better, Chip demand will increase.

I think we are likely to see an immediate wane because of tariffs. If the higher level strategies work, they will take a decade to beat fruit IMO.
 
I think it's really hard to say. Probably good overall, but :

Pros:
- Policies should lower energy costs (= datacenter, manufacturing benefits); caveat - cheap fuels won't last forever
- Favorable tax positions and less government overhead to slow down tech
- Emphasis on future tech (AI investment), and honing of CHIPS act (= signals "go" for tech)
- **Less government oversight (no Disinformation Governance Board, etc.) (= allow tech companies to operate with less checks and balances);
- Don't see him choosing China over Taiwan

Mixed:
- Immigration stances (= harder to source qualified labor, but investment in existing sectors)
- He has 'turned off' his (tech) advocates before -- the commerce board that he started in 2016 was a good idea but they all left him. Hopefully he's learned here.

Cons:
- A different type of cronyism than the past (= like past administrations, there will be winners and losers)
- Ending globalization means less places to partner with, potential reduction in overall capital available
- Some COGs will increase due to overseas labor pool being tariff'd
- Remains to be seen if he'll ACTUALLY lower government spending; his first administration was more pro-spend in nature
- For a portion of the tech sector (EVs, Batteries, Solar, etc.) he favors going backwards; Pollution is still a long term drag on the economy (can expand on this if desired)

**caveat - this adds other risks especially consumer ones too, but should help the tech sector short term achieve financial goals
 
If Trump imposes his proposed 30% tariff on ALL goods coming into the US (which I kind of doubt since someone will pay him handsomely in some back channel not to do this), it would immediately throw the US economy into recession IMO.

Depending on how far he REALLY goes with the tariffs will determine if the impact is minor, or causes a flat out depression.
 
I think it's really hard to say. Probably good overall, but :

Pros:
- Policies should lower energy costs (= datacenter, manufacturing benefits); caveat - cheap fuels won't last forever
- Favorable tax positions and less government overhead to slow down tech
- Emphasis on future tech (AI investment), and honing of CHIPS act (= signals "go" for tech)
- **Less government oversight (no Disinformation Governance Board, etc.) (= allow tech companies to operate with less checks and balances);
- Don't see him choosing China over Taiwan

Mixed:
- Immigration stances (= harder to source qualified labor, but investment in existing sectors)
- He has 'turned off' his (tech) advocates before -- the commerce board that he started in 2016 was a good idea but they all left him. Hopefully he's learned here.

Cons:
- A different type of cronyism than the past (= like past administrations, there will be winners and losers)
- Ending globalization means less places to partner with, potential reduction in overall capital available
- Some COGs will increase due to overseas labor pool being tariff'd
- Remains to be seen if he'll ACTUALLY lower government spending; his first administration was more pro-spend in nature
- For a portion of the tech sector (EVs, Batteries, Solar, etc.) he favors going backwards; Pollution is still a long term drag on the economy (can expand on this if desired)

**caveat - this adds other risks especially consumer ones too, but should help the tech sector short term achieve financial goals

Trump has limited influence in tech sectors because this is a highly competitive and globalized industries and the market is changing lighting fast. He wants to be recognized as the biggest rainmaker in the room and people will happily play with him.
 
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