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Toyota is taking the solid state game seriously. With over 1,000 patents on solid state batter technology, what is holding them back from releasing it into the world right now?
www.torquenews.com
Toyota and their partners (Panasonic among them) own or control over 1300 patents in solid state batteries that will allow a car to travel up to 700 miles and over 900 in the near future. This will have a dramatic impact on everything from phones, mobile devices, solar power back up and may foster as many changes as AI/ML just in a different manner. With Tesla being a partner with Panasonic on their battery plant outside of Reno, this should push battery technologies at an ever-increasing speed in performance and applications. These developments will be a massive game changer in just about everything. From transportation of all types and free many fields and devices from having to be plugged in. This will undoubtedly create entirely new markets for semis. Any thought or comments appreciated.
Having patents and scaling to multiple 100GWh plants (the scale of the industry today) at competitive price - and safety - are different things. Various announcements in labs of ways to get double the energy density of today's best EV packs have been around over the years but then it usually takes many more years until seeing them in the market. Progress is not even linear - the LFP batteries which are probably the majority of the market today are not the capacity leaders, but they are cheaper, safer, avoid cobalt, tolerate fast charging. So the market demonstrates that advancing a mature product requires a balance of many factors. Does Toyota have the right mix? Congratulations if they do, but there is a long road ahead.
It is interesting that Tesla is diversifying battery supplies. It makes its own, it still partners with Panasonic, but it also buys a huge amount of LFP from BYD. They are decoupling their vehicle tech from a bet on any one battery type and will be able to take advantage of new types quickly. I do not see Toyota trumpeting unproven batteries as their strategy as a sign of maturity. They need to show, like Tesla, that they make the best EV for any battery.
I agree with what your points Tanj. However I do have one thought. I think of Toyota in a similar manner to TSMC (and not specifically because of the volume). Rather it is because of the caution both companies share. My opinion is Toyota will sell solid state batteries when it is ready for HIGH volume production (as opposed to Tesla volume production). Now if that day is in five years or in two decades, I don't know. But I am still convinced that Toyota is doing this because they see it as a prerequisite for scaling EV production to the volumes expected from them, and that they won't pull the trigger until solid state batteries offer either a more cost effective or a better solution than current EV battery tech.
A reasonable hypothesis, but then how do you explain them playing with the very unready H2 vehicles yet not having any true EVs?
I can see they have a different world view - selling cars to markets around the world, many quite unready for EVs (though E mopeds and delivery vehicles are rapidly appearing everywhere), making them conservative and misjudging the importance of leading in affluent markets where EVs have become the engines of capitalization. But that does not explain the wacky bet on H2 which they keep regurgitating even as they try to convince us they like EVs.
It seems more like Intel in 2015 than TSMC. Captive to internal politics and stuck on the wrong bets.
Bragging is easy, doing it is hard, as Tanj nicely explained. I think Toyota is more like Intel, now starting to show a bit desperation, because the interrupter, in this case Tesla, just like TSMC, has rapidly altered the industry landscape in a few years. Just like Intel, Toyota still have lots of resources and even talents (like IBM >10 years ago), but they will soon need their own Pat Gelsinger if they keep putting their own Otellini or Krzanich in charge. I hope Toyota gets more serious and more quickly about EV before it's too late, as they certainly should know building a car is not just Toyota itself but requires an entire ecosystem which Japan does not have for making EVs while the US, Korea and especially China all do now.
Solid state is a major challenge to manufacture. Conventional Li-Ion has very well developed manufacturing processes. The next generation of batteries looks like it's going to be dry electrode/semisolid but even this faces major challenges. After that silicon anode and maybe advanced separator materials. It's not clear to me what advantage solid state will have over dry electrode/semisolid that will justify significant complexity in manufacturing for solid state. Just my opinion.
As I understand it they have only sold one of those in very low volumes exclusively in CA. Given the legal mess that CA I think it is more likely a result of some weird program or law there. I suppose it also helps that this infrastructure physically exists there in limited quantities (as opposed to the literal zero that exists outside of CA). I do agree it is odd how much they push them though, as it doesn't seem like something that makes sense. In developed nations BEVs sound like an easier transition and a superior technology. In the developing world/remote areas I think ICE will be too far superior over H2/fuel cells. But I would love to be proven wrong.
Given current regulations across the developed world are mandating EV adoption at a rapid rate, I don't know if intel and Toyota are comparable. Toyota was taking a conservative path and are caught a bit behind folks like GM/VW on Li-ion BEV efforts. Had there been no government involvement, I don't think Toyota would be concerned (given their deep expertise in ICEV and HEV/PHEVs design/manufacturing) and I think you might not have seen the flurry of BEVs they've announced over the past 1-2 years (hard to say though since auto platforms take a while to develop).
The amount of money and research going into solid state batteries is increasing exponentially and with AI/ML and flexible manufacturing tools and methods advancing at an ever accelerating rate change will come faster than most think. AI/ML will advance research, development and manufacturing at a rate few have even imagined. The companies that have the mind set and flexibility to take advantage of these trends will be the winners.
The amount of money and research going into solid state batteries is increasing exponentially and with AI/ML and flexible manufacturing tools and methods advancing at an ever accelerating rate change will come faster than most think. AI/ML will advance research, development and manufacturing at a rate few have even imagined. The companies that have the mind set and flexibility to take advantage of these trends will be the winners.
I'm not saying the manufacturing issues with solid state cannot be solved. What I'm saying is that by the time they are there will probably be little benefit to solid state either in performance or safety vs dry/semisolid technologies which should be cheaper to manufacture. The money and research would be better spent on other areas of battery development.
You seem correct for the USA, but they are also sold in Japan and in several European countries. Very low numbers everywhere, of course, and you need to have access to H2 stations.
Despite the low numbers, Toyota seems quite earnest in developing H2, it is not just for CA.
You seem correct for the USA, but they are also sold in Japan and in several European countries. Very low numbers everywhere, of course, and you need to have access to H2 stations.
Despite the low numbers, Toyota seems quite earnest in developing H2, it is not just for CA.
They have a lot of engineers - need to keep them doing something
H2 allows Toyota to share some FUD on the BEV industry - they’re trying to buy time while they figure out what they’re actually going to do. (See the “self charging hybrid” commercial BS from a few years ago)
There’s probably someone inside doing a superstar job selling Toyota on the financials for H2 vs. BEV. “We’re the clear leader in Hydrogen”, leaving out the part that there’s a reason no one else is investing much in it, or that “gas tanks” with Hydrogen boil off over time.
It’s going to stop sometime — just like rotary engines always find a dead end before a small revival.
Toyota is taking the solid state game seriously. With over 1,000 patents on solid state batter technology, what is holding them back from releasing it into the world right now?
www.torquenews.com
Toyota and their partners (Panasonic among them) own or control over 1300 patents in solid state batteries that will allow a car to travel up to 700 miles and over 900 in the near future. This will have a dramatic impact on everything from phones, mobile devices, solar power back up and may foster as many changes as AI/ML just in a different manner. With Tesla being a partner with Panasonic on their battery plant outside of Reno, this should push battery technologies at an ever-increasing speed in performance and applications. These developments will be a massive game changer in just about everything. From transportation of all types and free many fields and devices from having to be plugged in. This will undoubtedly create entirely new markets for semis. Any thought or comments appreciated.
For a large portion of transportation, the range problem has already been solved. 300-350 mile EVs are not that difficult to do at volume as Tesla has proven. Yes there’s cases for more - especially for commercial use, but it’s achievable. (See the Tesla semi with 500 miles range with a load..)
The real challenge is doing it at cost effective scale. Even if Solid State finally gets out of the lab it’s going to take many years to get up to speed in production, and many more years for costs to get down to “wet” state batteries which are in extremely massive volumes now.
Having patents and scaling to multiple 100GWh plants (the scale of the industry today) at competitive price - and safety - are different things. Various announcements in labs of ways to get double the energy density of today's best EV packs have been around over the years but then it usually takes many more years until seeing them in the market. Progress is not even linear - the LFP batteries which are probably the majority of the market today are not the capacity leaders, but they are cheaper, safer, avoid cobalt, tolerate fast charging. So the market demonstrates that advancing a mature product requires a balance of many factors. Does Toyota have the right mix? Congratulations if they do, but there is a long road ahead.
It is interesting that Tesla is diversifying battery supplies. It makes its own, it still partners with Panasonic, but it also buys a huge amount of LFP from BYD. They are decoupling their vehicle tech from a bet on any one battery type and will be able to take advantage of new types quickly. I do not see Toyota trumpeting unproven batteries as their strategy as a sign of maturity. They need to show, like Tesla, that they make the best EV for any battery.
Excellent points. Incumbent tech dominates because small innovations gain high leverage through high volume shipments based on existing design wins. Superior innovations disrupt with some compelling advantage. Then slowly the superior tech grows. I just looked at a visualization of Mac OS going from 3% share in 2003 to 14%, and occasionally higher. Of course TSMC helped.
www.torquenews.com