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Taiwan’s election highlights the potential for a conflict that would decimate the global economy.
www.bloomberg.com
As I have previously written the cost of China trying to take over Taiwan by force would be staggering in lives, military equipment, physical destruction on every level and a staggering destructive effect on the world economy. There would be no winners, only losers and China actually has the most to lose. The cost differential between improved collaboration and cooperation is far greater than even this figure. Sadly, the two powers both need to take their respective sides and attitudes in a new direction. They can either choose wealth and prosperity or death and destruction. We will soon see who the true leaders with wisdom are or are not. Any thoughts, comment or alternatives sought and welcome.
There was similar strategy of economic interdependence in 1930s... Or EU-Russia in recent history. Xi is more ideological and he already showed that he is willing to sacrifice economic prosperity to achieve his goals when he cracked down on tech sector...
There was similar strategy of economic interdependence in 1930s... Or EU-Russia in recent history. Xi is more ideological and he already showed that he is willing to sacrifice economic prosperity to achieve his goals when he cracked down on tech sector...
The Chinese populace is ever more sensitive to economic conditions as they have become more prosperous. The newest Costco in China has had a huge turn out with only one hundred allowed in at a time. As China has advanced, so have the people's quest for a better life. Xi doesn't care, but the people are increasingly restless. Xi has seen first hand the economic damage war has done to Russia.
The Chinese populace is ever more sensitive to economic conditions as they have become more prosperous. The newest Costco in China has had a huge turn out with only one hundred allowed in at a time. As China has advanced, so have the people's quest for a better life. Xi doesn't care, but the people are increasingly restless. Xi has seen first hand the economic damage war has done to Russia.
Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, left, celebrates his victory with running mate Bi-khim Hsiao in New Taipei City, Taiwan, Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. The Ruling-party candidate has emerged victorious in Taiwan's presidential election and his opponents have conceded...
semiwiki.com
One thing I can tell you by personal experience is that the quality of life in China has increased dramatically over the last 20 years. Same with Taiwan. I witnessed it first hand. And saying Xi doesn't care is ignorant. What are wars about in the first place? When quality of life is threatened, right?
If Xi Jinping will win, he, personally, is not losing anything, only gaining massively. If he wins, he will be politically unassailable internally, and likely gain personal security for the rest of his life.
War is not good for anyone because it causes human & economic sufferings. Unfortunately, the communists and some religious leaders are anchored in a tribal and imperialistic paranoia ideologies which are keeping people in the dark and mediocracy.
The Chinese populace is ever more sensitive to economic conditions as they have become more prosperous. The newest Costco in China has had a huge turn out with only one hundred allowed in at a time. As China has advanced, so have the people's quest for a better life. Xi doesn't care, but the people are increasingly restless. Xi has seen first hand the economic damage war has done to Russia.
what is exactly the "economic damage war has done to Russia"?
please compare GDP measured and estimated for this and next year between, for example Russia and Germany - estimate by world bank I mean - or also absolute value or simply % growth compared across countries.
Forcing people to obey & accept or submit to a certain ideology (or religion) is in contradiction with the free spirit or freedom of speech and self determination. Who gives the right on this planet to a certain race or ethnicity to control and dominate other people? Since people can't agree to disagree in a peaceful, respectful and civilized manner, it is clear that human civilization has the wrong priorities and is caught up in a world wide crisis. Wars are not good for most people but only for a handful of warmongers and ideologs which like to make more money, control and enslave the human mind.
Taiwan’s election highlights the potential for a conflict that would decimate the global economy.
www.bloomberg.com
As I have previously written the cost of China trying to take over Taiwan by force would be staggering in lives, military equipment, physical destruction on every level and a staggering destructive effect on the world economy. There would be no winners, only losers and China actually has the most to lose. The cost differential between improved collaboration and cooperation is far greater than even this figure. Sadly, the two powers both need to take their respective sides and attitudes in a new direction. They can either choose wealth and prosperity or death and destruction. We will soon see who the true leaders with wisdom are or are not. Any thoughts, comment or alternatives sought and welcome.
This Bloomberg analysis unfortunately does not take into consideration a third scenario (which I'd posit is far more likely to happen in case Xi decides to go to war), and that would be a continuous and very intense bombing campaign, using a (weeks/months-long) combination of:
1. Cheap drones (including "suicide" ones), to saturate air defence, etc.
2. Cruise missiles,
3. High-altitude bombers,
The aim would be to destroy and/or seriously maim Taiwan's semiconductor sector and all that support it.
We here all know the inherent frailness of semiconductor manufacturing, i.e. you can't produce chips when your infrastructure is being bombed 24/7.
In a nutshell, this potential conflict would be very similar to what happened in Ukraine (i.e. regular bombings targeting the infrastructure and defense fabs/repair shops).
Not only semi fabs, but also the whole ecosystem (water supply, electric grid, logistics, etc.) around it would be destroyed/rendered useless in a matter of hours/days, and bringing it back to a useful state would take Taiwan out of the semiconductor equation for many years.
In a weird (?) twist of fate, this situation would first and foremost benefit the US, as China would lose economic ties to the rest of the world (essentially killing its semiconductor sector caused by a lack of high-paying customers) and any knowledge transfer from TSMC would (if not be directly to the US Fabs) then take place under a very strong tutelage of the US tech sector, who would take again the lead in semi manufacturing.
Since this outcome would be a catastrophy for both China and Taiwan, and only benefit one of the belligerent, I don't believe it will happen but it would be the most realistic war-scenario.
The other two scenarios proposed by Bloomberg won't happen either, because they're a dead-end for China only, which they know perfectly well.
OK, got it. Although in this case I'd argue that the topic of a hypothetic conflict over Taiwan brings both areas closely together. People on this forum generally have a solid grasp of the tech aspect (something most mainstream journalists don't these days), so we are able to steer the discussion into new directions.
Edit: punctuation.
Taiwan, I have no doubt will have some very nasty surprises for China in a conflict. In many wars all the carefully laid plans go out the window when the first conflict takes place. I have no doubt this would not only be a brutal physical war, but also psychological/political/trade war at staggering costs to all parties.
www.bloomberg.com
