jim_22222
Banned
not really, many MIT physics PhDs are paid lower than a fresh CS grad from a state univ. They don't care freedom to think that much.
TechanaLye assesses China as 3 years behind TSMC
- Thread starter Fred Chen
- Start date
If China got a license to ASML technology then certainly it's a matter of time.
I’d argue just give them enough money and people will tolerate just about anything. Looking at the TSMC employees how they are paid and what they accept, I rest my case. Money and a path to a better life regardless of what your 80 hit weeks is like is accepted, LOL
jim_22222
Banned
china can even play the HK Macau card. where there is higher level of political autonomy. many US prominent professors have showed interest. if Trump had not banned US nationals from helping Chinese this could happen much earlier.
for many people it's if they will get the opportunity to be treated generally fair not some thing like freedom matters. Many Taiwanese executives left US companies to join TSMC since there they can get their deserved opportunity of promotion.
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Wasn’t it but a few years ago we had China and it’s cities full of expats and Intel, Samsung, TSMC and others expanding and doing joint ventures and than Xi and his ideology and shift shut it down?
Western business and governments had great hope. I’d say it was Xi and his ideology that shut it down. Till a few years ago much of technology was arcing forward to catch up and superior before it all unraveled and we are in full divorce
DepthFirst
Member
China cannot because it killed one country, two systems. Hong Kong and Macau no longer can be considered any different than mainland China after Beijing acted so harshly in asserting more direct control and crushing all protest. The US is fortunate that Xi acted so harshly and impatiently.
I don't understand what you're trying to assert here. There are lots of jobs which will pay more than a Post Doc does, be it big tech software or wall street. That doesn't mean that there aren't hard working and motivated Post Docs. Nor does it mean JPL, Oak Ridge aren't staffed with bright young minds who are excited to be working on big problems. That there is enormous opportunity doesn't somehow diminish freedom in anyway.
China’s not in the same place it was 10-20 years ago.
* Their housing crisis and housing devaluation pervades the domestic spending which has fallen far below the past.
* Many of their government-steered exports are now under targeted tariffs, by North America, the EU and even other parts of Asia, South America, Africa and Oceania.
* Local governments are tapped out in what they can fund. Many have debt loads that exceed 50% of their GDP and they can no longer leverage land sales due to falling prices, to painlessly service debt and spending.
* The problematic situation shows in the rapidly growing percentage of loss-making industrial companies. Right now the number is at 30% and still increasing rapidly, the highest that percentage has been in over 25 years. The loss-makers are spread across steel, chemicals, etc., but are especially heavy in construction, semiconductors, automobiles (ICE and EV), solar PV, and batteries. The graphic is quite shocking.
* To make matters worse, the newly-formulated youth unemployment rate in China soared above 17% in July.
So there‘s not as much “magic government money” or patience to fund targeted industries that won’t pay off for 10 years. Nor is there enough domestic demand to consume the industrial output that the government has already placed big bets on. A lot more money is going to need to go into picking up the pieces of failed enterprises, to prevent collapse of the social contract in China.
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Great observations. China is not the omnipotent power that some people make it out to be.
Housing prices were getting astronomical. So they popped the housing bubble. In my opinion this might have just made them avoid a Japanese 1990s style collapse.
Their export volume is still extremely high as is their trade surplus. It hit its historic maximum this year.
The debt is internal. The government owns the banks. They can reform the tax system.
They could just print the money, deposit it in the central bank, and erase the debt. They could start making people pay land tax for a change. They could increase VAT.
The last segment in the chart does not show the picture for the complete year. A lot of businesses enter loss making territory in the summer.
So you mean there is a lot of unemployed youth in the summer? Who could have thought.
A lot of companies with obsolete business models, like the ones which make internal combustion automobiles, will go bankrupt yes. That is creative destruction. I expected more from the country in which Henry Ford was born than to make rehashed Marxist arguments about the terrible destruction wrecked by investment.
Their government is fixing two issues, high oil imports, and high city pollution, in one stroke by going electric. People who claim they have overcapacity in solar are also looking at current demand, and not projected future demand.
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jim_22222
Banned
If this is a serious professional forum, I would suggest everyone do some serious research before posting. Tesla and Disney have been expanding significantly in China in recent years. Have you read a line from the CHIPS Act?
jim_22222
Banned
People | Yacoby Lab
yacoby.physics.harvard.edu
This is a typical Harvard physics lab. How many Americans can you find? Not many. Why? Because even if they get a faculty role after graduating, it still pays much less than a CS bachelor's degree.
some of them did go to wall street or software. but lot's of wasted effort.
Again, doubt how many researchers care about freedom that much, unless they are LGBTQ member, which US has a clear advantage.
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Analysis reveals limited impact of U.S. tech curbs on consumer products
U.S. export curbs on chip technology have spurred China to become more self-reliant in producing semiconductors. © Reuters
KOTARO HOSOKAWA, Nikkei staff writerAugust 31, 2024 23:01 JST
TOKYO -- An analysis of China's current semiconductor technology revealed that the country is approaching a level three years behind industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., showing the limitations of U.S. efforts to stem Beijing's development of cutting-edge chips.
Hiroharu Shimizu, CEO of Tokyo-based TechanaLye, a semiconductor research company that disassembles 100 electronic devices a year, told Nikkei about China's capabilities.
Shimizu showed semiconductor circuit diagrams for two application processors, the brains of a smartphone: one from Huawei Technologies' Pura 70 Pro, released in April, and one from a top-of-the-line Huawei smartphone from 2021.
The Kirin 9010 -- the newest phone's chip -- was designed by Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon and mass-produced by major Chinese contract chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC). The 2021 phone's Kirin 9000 chip was also designed by HiSilicon, but mass-produced by TSMC.
SMIC, which is subject to U.S. measures to suppress advanced chip technology, is capable of producing 7-nanometer chips. TSMC supplied 5-nm processors to Huawei for the 2021 phone.
Generally, the smaller the nanometer size, the higher the performance and the smaller the chip. However, SMIC's 7-nm mass-produced chip is 118.4 square millimeters, while TSMC's 5-nm chip is 107.8 sq. mm. The two chips have similar areas and performance levels.
TSMC's Kirin 9000 chip, left, and SMIC's Kirin 9010 chip were found to be nearly comparable in performance. (TechanaLye)
Although a difference in yield still exists, SMIC's capabilities are approaching a level three years behind TSMC, based purely on performance of the chips that were shipped. HiSilicon's design capabilities have also improved, as shown by its ability to produce chips with comparable performance as TSMC's 5-nm products, despite their wider circuit width.
Huawei's Pura 70 Pro is equipped with a total of 37 semiconductors that support memory, sensors, cameras, power supply and display functions. Of these, 14 were from HiSilicon, 18 from other Chinese manufacturers and just five from foreign manufacturers, including South Korea's SK Hynix for DRAM and Germany's Bosch for motion sensors. Some 86% of the phone's chips were made in China.
"In effect, the only semiconductors subject to the U.S. regulations are cutting-edge server chips for artificial intelligence and other applications," Shimizu said. "As long as the chips do not pose a military threat, the U.S. is probably allowing their development."
Chinese players made 34.4% of global chipmaking equipment purchases in 2023, roughly double the figure for South Korea and Taiwan, according to industry group SEMI. The country is expanding its mass-production capabilities by focusing on equipment that is not targeted by export restrictions on cutting-edge technologies.
Given this trend, the fact that SMIC's 7-nm chips now rival TSMC's 5-nm chips in processing capability could have major implications for the industry. TSMC also faces growing hurdles to stay ahead of Chinese rivals technologically as miniaturizing circuits become increasingly difficult.
"The U.S. regulations so far have only slightly delayed Chinese innovation, while sparking efforts by the Chinese chip industry to boost domestic production," Shimizu said.
asia.nikkei.com
U.S. export curbs on chip technology have spurred China to become more self-reliant in producing semiconductors. © Reuters
KOTARO HOSOKAWA, Nikkei staff writerAugust 31, 2024 23:01 JST
TOKYO -- An analysis of China's current semiconductor technology revealed that the country is approaching a level three years behind industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., showing the limitations of U.S. efforts to stem Beijing's development of cutting-edge chips.
Hiroharu Shimizu, CEO of Tokyo-based TechanaLye, a semiconductor research company that disassembles 100 electronic devices a year, told Nikkei about China's capabilities.
Shimizu showed semiconductor circuit diagrams for two application processors, the brains of a smartphone: one from Huawei Technologies' Pura 70 Pro, released in April, and one from a top-of-the-line Huawei smartphone from 2021.
The Kirin 9010 -- the newest phone's chip -- was designed by Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon and mass-produced by major Chinese contract chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC). The 2021 phone's Kirin 9000 chip was also designed by HiSilicon, but mass-produced by TSMC.
SMIC, which is subject to U.S. measures to suppress advanced chip technology, is capable of producing 7-nanometer chips. TSMC supplied 5-nm processors to Huawei for the 2021 phone.
Generally, the smaller the nanometer size, the higher the performance and the smaller the chip. However, SMIC's 7-nm mass-produced chip is 118.4 square millimeters, while TSMC's 5-nm chip is 107.8 sq. mm. The two chips have similar areas and performance levels.
TSMC's Kirin 9000 chip, left, and SMIC's Kirin 9010 chip were found to be nearly comparable in performance. (TechanaLye)
Although a difference in yield still exists, SMIC's capabilities are approaching a level three years behind TSMC, based purely on performance of the chips that were shipped. HiSilicon's design capabilities have also improved, as shown by its ability to produce chips with comparable performance as TSMC's 5-nm products, despite their wider circuit width.
Huawei's Pura 70 Pro is equipped with a total of 37 semiconductors that support memory, sensors, cameras, power supply and display functions. Of these, 14 were from HiSilicon, 18 from other Chinese manufacturers and just five from foreign manufacturers, including South Korea's SK Hynix for DRAM and Germany's Bosch for motion sensors. Some 86% of the phone's chips were made in China.
"In effect, the only semiconductors subject to the U.S. regulations are cutting-edge server chips for artificial intelligence and other applications," Shimizu said. "As long as the chips do not pose a military threat, the U.S. is probably allowing their development."
Chinese players made 34.4% of global chipmaking equipment purchases in 2023, roughly double the figure for South Korea and Taiwan, according to industry group SEMI. The country is expanding its mass-production capabilities by focusing on equipment that is not targeted by export restrictions on cutting-edge technologies.
Given this trend, the fact that SMIC's 7-nm chips now rival TSMC's 5-nm chips in processing capability could have major implications for the industry. TSMC also faces growing hurdles to stay ahead of Chinese rivals technologically as miniaturizing circuits become increasingly difficult.
"The U.S. regulations so far have only slightly delayed Chinese innovation, while sparking efforts by the Chinese chip industry to boost domestic production," Shimizu said.
China's chip capabilities just 3 years behind TSMC, teardown shows
Analysis reveals limited impact of U.S. tech curbs on consumer products
asia.nikkei.com
Except the TSMC made Kirin 9000 and the SMIC made Kirin 9010 cannot be used in a comparison to measure the success of the process. They are different designs altogether. Not the same CPU or GPU cores. HiSilicon did a great job in managing to get this much performance out of a 7nm process with great chip design. And that is it.
DepthFirst
Member
People | Yacoby Lab
This is a typical Harvard physics lab. How many Americans can you find? Not many. Why? Because even if they get a faculty role after graduating, it still pays much less than a CS bachelor's degree.
some of them did go to wall street or software. but lot's of wasted effort.
Again, doubt how many researchers care about freedom that much, unless they are LGBTQ member, which US has a clear advantage.
Who here have you determined is not American? I have some insight on the academic level, and I can tell you that overwhelmingly most that aren’t citizen or permanent residents are only so because they’re still working their way through the arduous immigration process. Quite frankly I find your whole line of reasoning bizare. The very best from around the world come to America and somehow you find fault with that.
It’s a different kind of supply-fed bubble. Japan‘s housing bubble was based on over-heated demand. China has years of inventory to work off, some of it not even in the right places for future demand. Unfortunately 30% of China’s GDP was based on housing and 70% of family wealth was tied up in housing. A popped bubble has severe consequences.
Your numbers are off, in two ways. First, the 2023 US trade balance was lower than 2022. There has been a spike in both US and EU trade imbalances months this summer due to importers trying to bring in goods ahead of new tariffs, but that isn’t likely a structural increase. But the bigger issue for China is that the percentage of exports vs China GDP is way down over the peak in 2015 At the same time domestic consumption is decaying, even before most of the new tariffs have kicked in. That doesn’t bode well for the future, especially with all the excess capacity China has built, especially for ICE autos, EVs and solar.
China could do lots of things to try to find new money, but they haven‘t done much so far to relieve local governments. And each of the revenue increases or debt erasures you suggest would have other negative consequences - further reduced domestic consumption from a VAT, or inflation from printing money. But right now, Beijing is forcing local governments to clean up their balance sheets on their own, which means no new investments, and selling off / foreclosing on current investments at fire sale prices.
The Economist article that that graph came from mentioned the yearly cyclical behavior you mention. But even the forecast for the full year 2024 including cyclical revenues shows an increased percentage of loss-making industrial companies.
New college grads entered the market in June, many of them without jobs. Beijing reformulated its unemployment metrics for 16-24 year olds last June, when it hit a record 21.3%. The new formula removes 16-24 year olds who are still in school to get rid of the summer unemployment portion. But even with the new formulation, the number has ticked up to a new record high.
Not sure what you are trying to say assert in your last paragraph. Yes, new markets like the automobile in 1895 to 1950, were messy in the US with lots of local markets and brands. There were something like 1,800 different auto companies throughout that time period, that eventually consolidated into three (actually 4 by 1950). But that was when auto-making was a very local enterprise, not the global one it is today. China found a way to turn back the clock on all that with its local government style of investment policy for ICE cars, EV cars, solar, and electronics, where almost every local government creates its own local “champion”, then those champions engage in Darwinian fights to become national and potentially global champions. That might be an effective way to do create a few global competitors, but it has it has high costs in two forms:
1) Local governments take a big hit from their investment losers. That can be sustained when land sales to developers enabled local governments to print money but is incredibly painful right now.
2) Factory closures and bankruptcies have painful human and societal costs. I grew up in a US car town that made American Motors cars (like the Rambler, Gremlin and Pacer !) and got to see what happens to a town when the main plants get shut down - it’s not pretty for the people or municipal government.
Your last assertion is that China’s focus on EVs is a good thing - I agree. But even the EV business in China is getting hammered by the same investment effect. China decided to focus on EVs in the 1990’s. By 2017, the industrial policy had produced 700 EV players, by 2019 that number was down to 500, by 2022 down to 300. We‘re seeing a competition today between the remaining 100 all with factories. My guess is that we will get down to 3 companies that will become global brands, meaning they will have manufacturing plants in North America, the EU, and other locales globally to sell in those markets. The remaining 97 are going to leave shuttered factories, local government losses, and unemployed workers.
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jim_22222
Banned
Some groups list their origin on their webpages, but this one doesn't—you can look it up. Often, especially with Korean and Taiwanese , members return home. Such departments typically favor local candidates and only recruit internationally when there's a shortage of qualified locals. The crux of the issue is that graduates in these majors are often underpaid, leading to low interest in the field. However, if the pay were better at some location, many would be drawn to these positions.
This is very different than Japan, which was a demand driven bubble, but I was a little off on describing the China situation. China has a supply-driven bubble where they have 10M units that are not needed and 48M PARTIALLY built units that are ALREADY PAID for and might not get completed for years due to developer cash flow issues (the purchase money was spent on new land acquisition instead of completion).
jim_22222
Banned
seems similar problem as INTC.
over optimistic and invested ahead of demand.
Similar, but China is even more out over their skis on the building side. They built 10M units of the wrong product (or at least partially built them), while taking all the money for another 48M units of product, but then used most of that money to build more factories (in this case land) for completely different products, while maintaining only a skeleton crew to build the paid-for product. But it’s catching up with them and working its way through the whole economy. Local government land sales to developers and companies building factories have been dropping since 2022, and have dropped over 20% in 2024 vs the first 7 months of 2023. Local governments are trying to fill that gap by monetizing (selling or renting out) all their assets that aren’t bolted down.
China Property Slump Spurs Local Governments’ Quest for Cash
For the first seven months of 2024 local government proceeds from land sales slid over 20%
China Property Slump Spurs Local Governments’ Quest for Cash — The Wall Street Journal
For the first seven months of 2024 local government proceeds from land sales slid over 20%
apple.news
Those houses will still get finished. The difference is while in the US the property developers would have been perceived as too big to fail and bailed out, in this case the unfinished houses get resold to a different, financially solvent, developer, the original insolvent developer gets liquidated, and the Chinese government pays the new company to finish the houses so those people can live in them.
That amount of houses in a country with 1.4 billion people is a drop in the bucket. Compared with the disaster that is US commercial real estate right now I am not sure if people in the US should be pointing fingers at the Chinese real estate sector.
markets.businessinsider.com
To put it into perspective, the US has 15 million vacant homes. China has 4.19x the population of the US. Adjust for the population and that would be 62.85 million vacant homes in China. OMG the US residential real estate market is a disaster.
That amount of houses in a country with 1.4 billion people is a drop in the bucket. Compared with the disaster that is US commercial real estate right now I am not sure if people in the US should be pointing fingers at the Chinese real estate sector.
Bonds backed by commercial mortgages are a 'disaster' as real estate values crumble, hedge funder says
The CMBS market is in trouble, one hedge fund boss says, as loans on offices across the US are at risk of defaulting.
markets.businessinsider.com
To put it into perspective, the US has 15 million vacant homes. China has 4.19x the population of the US. Adjust for the population and that would be 62.85 million vacant homes in China. OMG the US residential real estate market is a disaster.
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