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Taiwan, Ultimate Risk for China and the World, Semis Front and Center in the World

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Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
Nothing good can come out of a China/Taiwan conflict for China or the world. For China, the risks are numerous and enormous. If they attempt to take over Taiwan, the conflict could extend from India, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, the US(which would probably involve Nato since they are allies by treaty) and their economies rely upon TSM chips like most of the world's economies. To think Putin and Russia would not also take advantage of this would be naive, he could easily take full advantage of this to China's detriment. This would also cast doubt on where covid actually came from and the lack of transparency in the initial investigations. Any real conflict and the Chinese would take over a near useless. TSM would be rendered almost useless by being cut off from much of the ecosystem that Morris Chang spent decades assembling from around the world that rely on trust that would no longer exist if China took over Taiwan by force. The damage to the world economy could also make many of the foreign bonds China holds worthless and uncollectable. The economic, political, and physical damage of starting a world war could easily blowback on China with unknown implications on its internal economy, social structure, and political structures. If China thinks violating the Hong Kong treaty caused problems and condemnation, this would be a very minor and negligible distraction compared to what a military assault on Taiwan would bring. Just the cost of invading Taiwan could be easily upwards of a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs and damage to China alone. This money could be put to much better uses than throwing money down a rat hole of international conflict and condemnation. The damage to world trade would hurt all with no country being immune. I wish the leaders on all sides could learn the lessons of Morris Chang and building an ecosystem built on trust and mutual benefit, something our leaders on all sides should take to heart. You can't argue with the results that Morris Chang achieved not only for TSM and their partners, but the world in general.

Collaboration and cooperation could prove the opposite and yield tremendous dividends for China and the world through increasing the rate of progress for everyone. Truly integrating markets and mutual respect for IP could unleash a wave of advancement and productivity unmatched in human history with the onset of widespread advanced artificial intelligence, machine learning, and the automation of everything. China's accomplishments are great, such as moving more people out of poverty in the shortest time in human history and bringing a massive country into modern times in an equally short period of time. I hope China sees the upside which could be rapid and immediate by seeking profitable collaboration and cooperation over conflict that could damage the world and make them a pariah. Investing the trillion dollars that a widespread conflict could easily cost China and the trillions Taiwan and its allies would also lose, would be a much, much wiser investment with literally staggering returns if spent on advancing technologies in numerous areas, coupled with true collaboration and cooperation. I hope the world leaders choose prosperity over conflict. I wish our leaders would follow the example of Morris Chang and build ecosystems based on trust and collaboration in which all sides benefit and contribute to a better world. This system of building ecosystems would benefit everyone and hopefully could be extended to almost everything one step at a time.
Comments, thoughts, and additions solicited and welcomed
 
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Nothing good can come out of a China/Taiwan conflict for China or the world. For China, the risks are numerous and enormous. If they attempt to take over Taiwan, the conflict could extend from India, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, the US(which would probably involve Nato since they are allies by treaty) and their economies rely upon TSM chips like most of the world's economies. To think Putin and Russia would not also take advantage of this would be naive, he could easily take full advantage of this to China's detriment. This would also cast doubt on where covid actually came from and the lack of transparency in the initial investigations. Any real conflict and the Chinese would take over a near useless. TSM would be rendered almost useless by being cut off from much of the ecosystem that Morris Chang spent decades assembling from around the world that rely on trust that would no longer exist if China took over Taiwan by force. The damage to the world economy could also make many of the foreign bonds China holds worthless and uncollectable. The economic, political, and physical damage of starting a world war could easily blowback on China with unknown implications on its internal economy, social structure, and political structures. If China thinks violating the Hong Kong treaty caused problems and condemnation, this would be a very minor and negligible distraction compared to what a military assault on Taiwan would bring. Just the cost of invading Taiwan could be easily upwards of a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs and damage to China alone. This money could be put to much better uses than throwing money down a rat hole of international conflict and condemnation. The damage to world trade would hurt all with no country being immune. I wish the leaders on all sides could learn the lessons of Morris Chang and building an ecosystem built on trust and mutual benefit, something our leaders on all sides should take to heart. You can't argue with the results that Morris Chang achieved not only for TSM and their partners, but the world in general.

Collaboration and cooperation could prove the opposite and yield tremendous dividends for China and the world through increasing the rate of progress for everyone. Truly integrating markets and mutual respect for IP could unleash a wave of advancement and productivity unmatched in human history with the onset of widespread advanced artificial intelligence, machine learning, and the automation of everything. China's accomplishments are great, such as moving more people out of poverty in the shortest time in human history and bringing a massive country into modern times in an equally short period of time. I hope China sees the upside which could be rapid and immediate by seeking profitable collaboration and cooperation over conflict that could damage the world and make them a pariah. Investing the trillion dollars that a widespread conflict could easily cost China and the trillions Taiwan and its allies would also lose, would be a much, much wiser investment with literally staggering returns if spent on advancing technologies in numerous areas, coupled with true collaboration and cooperation. I hope the world leaders choose prosperity over conflict. I wish our leaders would follow the example of Morris Chang and build ecosystems based on trust and collaboration in which all sides benefit and contribute to a better world. This system of building ecosystems would benefit everyone and hopefully could be extended to almost everything one step at a time.
Comments, thoughts, and additions solicited and welcomed
For China, the risks are numerous and enormous. If they attempt to take over Taiwan, the conflict could extend from India, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, the US(which would probably involve Nato since they are allies by treaty) and their economies rely upon TSM chips like most of the world's economies.

Hardly. No combination of such forces can challenge China within 1000 miles of its coast, nor is any Taiwanese willing to shed blood when a PRC takeover will quadruple everyone's wages

Expect, instead, a bland official announcement: "As of midnight tonight, movement of goods and services to and from Chinese Taipei must clear PRC Customs and Immigration. Pursuant to this domestic policy change, the Taiwan Straits will be domestic Chinese waters and a 200-mile ADIZ will be enforced around Taipei". Of course, China's immensely powerful navy, air-force and missiles will back this up, and a picket line of missile patrol boats will patrol the ADIZ.

In other words, business as usual, except that global power shifts decisively in China's favor through its control of ICs, and the visible impotence of the US.
 

kingmouf

Member
Why on earth should we be discussing in an engineering semiconductor forum things like war and world domination plans? I do not mean no insult or anything, but I am amazed that war planning is always in the back of your mind. No good thing will come out of that, but I guess this kind of mentality grows to a nation that has been at war for every single year in its history (and drifts the whole world in this game) and bases its entire economy and existence in war games. Has there ever been a discussion, hey let's stop all war industries from producing guns and killing machines and turn all these R&D efforts and trillions of dollars into something useful, like I dont know, medicine? environment restoration? true clean energy? space? infrastructure? human development? zero-impact constructions? theoretical sciences? engineering? chips? <add your favourite things that you believe can change our lives> . Just wondering, since you have been discussing that for sooooo long in this forum how you are going to bring back to the US manufacturing and advanced technology production capabilities, what if you only slightly reduced the effort, resources and money spent on your great war imagination and the role of the keeper of the world, wouldn't you absolutely regain all the control of the bleeding edge technology market and manufacturing?

I am not naive and none of the aforementioned are as profitable as the game of war, but if the game of war is in our minds and plans as an acceptable or inevitable thing, well we are simply vastly more prone to accept it rather than oppose it. So how about turning the conversation on how you can use all your brilliant minds (and all the world's brilliant minds that seem to be very keen on joining your excellent universities and research), your unique resources and business-growing ecosystems into turning your country into a bright spot, rather than discussing what will happen if China invades, or if a missile is launched or if a conflict disrupts Taiwan etc etc. ? It would certainly make a much more interesting forum - at least for me, hopefully for other people here as well, who would not want to see our efforts, work and beloved interests of designing and producing hardware and computer systems to be the center of a new global conflict. Computer systems can be viewed as the technology enabler that can assist all nations move forward and manage to surpass their struggles, not as another one reason to go to war like oil, minerals and other resources. Just saying.
 

danxchen

New member
Nothing good can come out of a China/Taiwan conflict for China or the world. For China, the risks are numerous and enormous. If they attempt to take over Taiwan, the conflict could extend from India, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, the US(which would probably involve Nato since they are allies by treaty) and their economies rely upon TSM chips like most of the world's economies. To think Putin and Russia would not also take advantage of this would be naive, he could easily take full advantage of this to China's detriment. This would also cast doubt on where covid actually came from and the lack of transparency in the initial investigations. Any real conflict and the Chinese would take over a near useless. TSM would be rendered almost useless by being cut off from much of the ecosystem that Morris Chang spent decades assembling from around the world that rely on trust that would no longer exist if China took over Taiwan by force. The damage to the world economy could also make many of the foreign bonds China holds worthless and uncollectable. The economic, political, and physical damage of starting a world war could easily blowback on China with unknown implications on its internal economy, social structure, and political structures. If China thinks violating the Hong Kong treaty caused problems and condemnation, this would be a very minor and negligible distraction compared to what a military assault on Taiwan would bring. Just the cost of invading Taiwan could be easily upwards of a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs and damage to China alone. This money could be put to much better uses than throwing money down a rat hole of international conflict and condemnation. The damage to world trade would hurt all with no country being immune. I wish the leaders on all sides could learn the lessons of Morris Chang and building an ecosystem built on trust and mutual benefit, something our leaders on all sides should take to heart. You can't argue with the results that Morris Chang achieved not only for TSM and their partners, but the world in general.

Collaboration and cooperation could prove the opposite and yield tremendous dividends for China and the world through increasing the rate of progress for everyone. Truly integrating markets and mutual respect for IP could unleash a wave of advancement and productivity unmatched in human history with the onset of widespread advanced artificial intelligence, machine learning, and the automation of everything. China's accomplishments are great, such as moving more people out of poverty in the shortest time in human history and bringing a massive country into modern times in an equally short period of time. I hope China sees the upside which could be rapid and immediate by seeking profitable collaboration and cooperation over conflict that could damage the world and make them a pariah. Investing the trillion dollars that a widespread conflict could easily cost China and the trillions Taiwan and its allies would also lose, would be a much, much wiser investment with literally staggering returns if spent on advancing technologies in numerous areas, coupled with true collaboration and cooperation. I hope the world leaders choose prosperity over conflict. I wish our leaders would follow the example of Morris Chang and build ecosystems based on trust and collaboration in which all sides benefit and contribute to a better world. This system of building ecosystems would benefit everyone and hopefully could be extended to almost everything one step at a time.
Comments, thoughts, and additions solicited and welcomed
I wish to make the following comments: 1. CCP in its nearly 100 year history has seldom considered issues from a "P&L" basis, or it considers on the basis of losing human lives. Examples are just too numerous to be listed here. 2. CCP, and indeed, many mainland Chinese, consider Taiwan is still part of China. The analogy here is Iraq considered Kuwait is part of Iraq. This is just a fact, not an opinion. 3. The only way to stop the war is to associate the life and death of CCP decision makers with that of the Taiwanese people. A real threat backed up by real teeth behind it will probably effective in preventing a war, assuming these decision makers in Beijing is not insane and capable of reasoning.
 
I wish to make the following comments: 1. CCP in its nearly 100 year history has seldom considered issues from a "P&L" basis, or it considers on the basis of losing human lives. Examples are just too numerous to be listed here. 2. CCP, and indeed, many mainland Chinese, consider Taiwan is still part of China. The analogy here is Iraq considered Kuwait is part of Iraq. This is just a fact, not an opinion. 3. The only way to stop the war is to associate the life and death of CCP decision makers with that of the Taiwanese people. A real threat backed up by real teeth behind it will probably effective in preventing a war, assuming these decision makers in Beijing is not insane and capable of reasoning.
1. Examples are just too numerous to be listed here. Please list one.

2. CCP, and indeed, many mainland Chinese, consider Taiwan is still part of China. The analogy here is Iraq considered Kuwait is part of Iraq. This is just a fact, not an opinion.
It can be a fact or an analogy, but it can't be both. Choose one.

3. The only way to stop the war is to associate the life and death of CCP decision makers with that of the Taiwanese people. A real threat backed up by real teeth behind it will probably effective in preventing a war, assuming these decision makers in Beijing is not insane and capable of reasoning. Please provide one example of a real threat that will be effective.
 

Jert

Member
1. Examples are just too numerous to be listed here. Please list one.

2. CCP, and indeed, many mainland Chinese, consider Taiwan is still part of China. The analogy here is Iraq considered Kuwait is part of Iraq. This is just a fact, not an opinion. It can be a fact or an analogy, but it can't be both. Choose one.

3. The only way to stop the war is to associate the life and death of CCP decision makers with that of the Taiwanese people. A real threat backed up by real teeth behind it will probably effective in preventing a war, assuming these decision makers in Beijing is not insane and capable of reasoning. Please provide one example of a real threat that will be effective.
If you need to LOOK for examples, you are clueless about how that party operates.
 
If you need to LOOK for examples, you are clueless about how that party operates.
Just as I thought. You are making stuff up. There are no such examples.

Far from being clueless about China and the CPC, I've written a book on the subject, Why China Leads the World: Talent at the Top, Data in the Middle, Democracy at the Bottom. At fine bookstores world wide.
 

Jert

Member
Just as I thought. You are making stuff up. There are no such examples.

Far from being clueless about China and the CPC, I've written a book on the subject, Why China Leads the World: Talent at the Top, Data in the Middle, Democracy at the Bottom. At fine bookstores world wide.
Simply cannot imagine a better choice you being their biggest propaganda machine. Talent at the top? Democracy? hahahah, hahaha.... you such a joker.
 
Talent at the top? Getting an entry-level government job requires an IQ of 140–something that hasn't changed in 2000 years. (An IQ of 140 is required for a PhD in theoretical physics)

Democracy?
Let’s compare democracy in China and the USA by examining it in six dimensions: formal, elective, popular, procedural, operational and substantive.

  1. Formally–in shape or appearance–China’s constitution (Article Three: “The State organs of the People’s Republic of China apply the principle of democratic centralism. The National People’s Congress and the local people’s congresses at various levels are constituted through democratic elections. They are responsible to the people and subject to their supervision. All administrative, judicial and procuratorial organs of the State are created by the people’s congresses to which they are responsible and by which they are supervised”.) makes her a democracy. America’s constitution doesn’t. America is a republic founded by democracy-hating slave-owners who never mentioned democracy in the Constitution or anywhere else except to curse it. China 1–USA 0.

  2. Electively, China has bigger, more transparent elections than the USA that are supervised and certified by The Carter Center, which also runs China’s election website. China 2–USA 0.
Popularly, China has a twenty percent higher voter participation than the USA (62% to 52%), suggesting that more Chinese voters think their vote counts. China 3–USA 0.

Procedurally, China uses a public, democratic process to appoint senior officials and approve all legislation. America? Not so much. American presidential candidates are chosen by wealthy backers and appointed by an unelected group of people called the Electoral College which nobody understands. China 4–USA 0.

Operationally, American presidents operate like like medieval monarchs. They hire and fire all senior officials and frequently order citizens kidnapped, tortured, imprisoned and assassinated without consulting anyone. They can secretly ban 50,000 people from flying on airlines without explanation and take the country to war at any time, for any reason. No Chinese leader–including Mao–could do any of those things. They have to vote on everything, democratically. China 5–USA 0.

Substantively, China’s government policies produce democratic outcomes. Ninety-six percent of Chinese voters say that the government’s policies are just what they want and eighty-three percent say China is being run for their benefit rather than for the benefit of a special group. Only thirty-eight percent of Americans think this of their country. Ninety percent of Chinese voters are pleased with the direction their elected representatives are taking them, compared to twenty percent of Americans.

Score: China 6–USA 0.
 

hist78

Active member
Talent at the top? Getting an entry-level government job requires an IQ of 140–something that hasn't changed in 2000 years. (An IQ of 140 is required for a PhD in theoretical physics)

Democracy?
Let’s compare democracy in China and the USA by examining it in six dimensions: formal, elective, popular, procedural, operational and substantive.

  1. Formally–in shape or appearance–China’s constitution (Article Three: “The State organs of the People’s Republic of China apply the principle of democratic centralism. The National People’s Congress and the local people’s congresses at various levels are constituted through democratic elections. They are responsible to the people and subject to their supervision. All administrative, judicial and procuratorial organs of the State are created by the people’s congresses to which they are responsible and by which they are supervised”.) makes her a democracy. America’s constitution doesn’t. America is a republic founded by democracy-hating slave-owners who never mentioned democracy in the Constitution or anywhere else except to curse it. China 1–USA 0.

  2. Electively, China has bigger, more transparent elections than the USA that are supervised and certified by The Carter Center, which also runs China’s election website. China 2–USA 0.
Popularly, China has a twenty percent higher voter participation than the USA (62% to 52%), suggesting that more Chinese voters think their vote counts. China 3–USA 0.

Procedurally, China uses a public, democratic process to appoint senior officials and approve all legislation. America? Not so much. American presidential candidates are chosen by wealthy backers and appointed by an unelected group of people called the Electoral College which nobody understands. China 4–USA 0.

Operationally, American presidents operate like like medieval monarchs. They hire and fire all senior officials and frequently order citizens kidnapped, tortured, imprisoned and assassinated without consulting anyone. They can secretly ban 50,000 people from flying on airlines without explanation and take the country to war at any time, for any reason. No Chinese leader–including Mao–could do any of those things. They have to vote on everything, democratically. China 5–USA 0.

Substantively, China’s government policies produce democratic outcomes. Ninety-six percent of Chinese voters say that the government’s policies are just what they want and eighty-three percent say China is being run for their benefit rather than for the benefit of a special group. Only thirty-eight percent of Americans think this of their country. Ninety percent of Chinese voters are pleased with the direction their elected representatives are taking them, compared to twenty percent of Americans.

Score: China 6–USA 0.
I have many friends and business contacts either inside or outside of mainland China. Their real-world experience about China's society and government are totally opposite to your opinion. Opinion is one thing that has to be based on the fact. Otherwise it becomes a fantasy.
 
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I have many friends and business contacts either inside or outside of mainland China. Their real-world experience about China's society and government are totally opposite to your opinion. Opinion is one thing that has to be based on the fact. Otherwise it becomes a fantasy.
Here are some facts for you and your friends to ponder:
  1. There are more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, and imprisoned people in America than in China.

  2. China's infant mortality, 5.4 per thousand births is lower than America's 5.69 and Chinese children's healthy life expectancy is longer than American kids and they will graduate high school three years ahead of them.

  3. In every annual survey, by Edelman, WVS, or Harvard University, the Chinese Government is ranked the most trusted on earth.
 

VCT

Member
Here are some facts for you and your friends to ponder:
  1. There are more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, and imprisoned people in America than in China.

  2. China's infant mortality, 5.4 per thousand births is lower than America's 5.69 and Chinese children's healthy life expectancy is longer than American kids and they will graduate high school three years ahead of them.

  3. In every annual survey, by Edelman, WVS, or Harvard University, the Chinese Government is ranked the most trusted on earth.
Are you serious about the vote in China? 99.9% of people in China never vote or not qualified to vote in thier whole life.
Only a few "representatives" are able to vote. Those representatives are chosen by a group of people. Not by normal people.
 
Chinese elections have been overseen by the Carter Center for decades and voter turnout, at 72%, is much higher than ours, suggesting that their votes count more.
DEMOCRACY DEFICITS.png
 

VCT

Member
Chinese elections have been overseen by the Carter Center for decades and voter turnout, at 72%, is much higher than ours, suggesting that their votes count more.
View attachment 507
I believe your chart. Most Chinese believe China is democratic.
You must have some Chinese freind. Ask them do they ever vote or not.
Please also ask them how to be the candidate.
 
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hist78

Active member
Chinese elections have been overseen by the Carter Center for decades and voter turnout, at 72%, is much higher than ours, suggesting that their votes count more.
View attachment 507
When, where, and how did the Carter Center certify the Chinese elections? I found one Carter Center's report for a election observation trip back in January 1999, the end of last century. In that report, the Carter Center pointed out several serious problems they observed but nothing to do a certification.

And you interpreted that Daliareseach.com survey results wrongly. They did the survey through smartphones and Internet connected computers about the attitudes and expectations towards democracy for each their own country. It's NOT a reality check. BTW, unless a person who is really stupid or courage, mainland Chinese people won't provide any negative opinions online regarding CCP. He/she can get serious troubles.
 
The Center oversees Chinese elections, it does not certify them.
Why is the Daliareseach survey 'not a reality check'?
Why do you say, "mainland Chinese people won't provide any negative opinions online regarding CCP. He/she can get serious troubles"? Are you suggesting that the Party holds itself beyond reproach and criticism?
If this isn't evidence of democracy, what is?
DOES MY GOVERNMENT WORK FOR EVERYONE'S BENEFIT?.png
 

hist78

Active member
Dear Godfree,

I think you better make up your mind. The word "Certify" or "Oversee" are all coming from your posts. Please ask your team members who have more experience in doing this kind of writing and posting work if you are not sure.

And after reading the Carter Center's report that was written 22 years ago, I can find neither "certify" nor "oversee" in that report about China's election. Can you or your team do some more research and provide the link to all of us?

Also, "Why do you say, "mainland Chinese people won't provide any negative opinions online regarding CCP. He/she can get serious troubles"? Are you suggesting that the Party holds itself beyond reproach and criticism?"

Yes, this is a fact for the past 100 years since CCP was established.

BTW, can you please find a name of a non-CCP party who campaigns and holds elected positions from local, province, or central government in mainland China? Sorry for the extra work for you.
 
Godfree, please take your "China good, USA bad" diatribe somewhere else. It doesn't belong here. Nor does your book plugging. This is a site for "Semiconductor Professionals". The clue is in the title.

One other point - if the USA is so dreadful (I'm not American, but let's stick to the facts for a change here), why are people from all over the world queuing up to get in ? I don't see that happening in China (if indeed it's even possible to migrate to China). Equally, US citizens are free to leave and enter without restriction.
 
Dear Godfree,

I think you better make up your mind. The word "Certify" or "Oversee" are all coming from your posts. Please ask your team members who have more experience in doing this kind of writing and posting work if you are not sure.

And after reading the Carter Center's report that was written 22 years ago, I can find neither "certify" nor "oversee" in that report about China's election. Can you or your team do some more research and provide the link to all of us?

Also, "Why do you say, "mainland Chinese people won't provide any negative opinions online regarding CCP. He/she can get serious troubles"? Are you suggesting that the Party holds itself beyond reproach and criticism?"

Yes, this is a fact for the past 100 years since CCP was established.

BTW, can you please find a name of a non-CCP party who campaigns and holds elected positions from local, province, or central government in mainland China? Sorry for the extra work for you.
can you please find a name of a non-Capitalist party who campaigns and holds elected positions from local, province, or central government in mainland USA?
 
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