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Taiwan/TSM is Safe, AI/ML will compound on themselves

A

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
At this point in time, China is in no condition economically or militarily in any condition to invade Taiwan. A war would not only be severely damaging, but costly on a scale that makes the Ukraine war a minor conflict. World trade and economics would be severely damaged and China already has severe problems. It would be far, far more productive to reach an agreement over TSM or go to the black market for needed technology than a war. TSM will continue to be the leader in AI/ML chips that will be key to solving the many challenges before the world in over population, energy, food and resources. As AI/ML compound on themselves giving us untold power to solve the challenges before the world. These solutions are now beyond most imaginations as we have never before in human history have had the power of AI/ML we are just in the very early stages of recognizing and being able to bring to bare the massive innovative power both bring. Any thoughts, expansions or conflicts this trend may bring appreciated.
 
Arthur Hanson said:
At this point in time, China is in no condition economically or militarily in any condition to invade Taiwan. A war would not only be severely damaging, but costly on a scale that makes the Ukraine war a minor conflict. World trade and economics would be severely damaged and China already has severe problems. It would be far, far more productive to reach an agreement over TSM or go to the black market for needed technology than a war. TSM will continue to be the leader in AI/ML chips that will be key to solving the many challenges before the world in over population, energy, food and resources. As AI/ML compound on themselves giving us untold power to solve the challenges before the world. These solutions are now beyond most imaginations as we have never before in human history have had the power of AI/ML we are just in the very early stages of recognizing and being able to bring to bare the massive innovative power both bring. Any thoughts, expansions or conflicts this trend may bring appreciated.
Click to expand...
I'm waiting to see how Falcon Shore would perform on Intel 18A
 
Arthur Hanson said:
At this point in time, China is in no condition economically or militarily in any condition to invade Taiwan. A war would not only be severely damaging, but costly on a scale that makes the Ukraine war a minor conflict.
Click to expand...
If the war ends fast, leaders may think why not? And also, third aircraft carrier is expected to take to the sea within this year. And China may possess five or six aircraft carriers by the end of decade which isn't that far away.
 
delong.height said:
If the war ends fast, leaders may think why not? And also, third aircraft carrier is expected to take to the sea within this year. And China may possess five or six aircraft carriers by the end of decade which isn't that far away.
Click to expand...
Aircraft carriers are large, slow, very expensive targets. Drones and missiles controlled by advanced chips will make carriers a poor choice for modern warfare. Also sleeper torpedoes and mines that only trigger on a ships signature are changing warfare radically when they are used. The Chinese carriers have to used a sloped deck that means they can't carry a full fuel or weapons load compared to our catapult launch technology. Tech is changing warfare radically in an ever shorter time period. The same is true of Russian carriers. Carriers I feel are obsolete because of rapidly advancing technologies. Any thoughts on this sought and welcome.
 
Arthur Hanson said:
At this point in time, China is in no condition economically or militarily in any condition to invade Taiwan. A war would not only be severely damaging, but costly on a scale that makes the Ukraine war a minor conflict. World trade and economics would be severely damaged and China already has severe problems. It would be far, far more productive to reach an agreement over TSM or go to the black market for needed technology than a war. TSM will continue to be the leader in AI/ML chips that will be key to solving the many challenges before the world in over population, energy, food and resources. As AI/ML compound on themselves giving us untold power to solve the challenges before the world. These solutions are now beyond most imaginations as we have never before in human history have had the power of AI/ML we are just in the very early stages of recognizing and being able to bring to bare the massive innovative power both bring. Any thoughts, expansions or conflicts this trend may bring appreciated.
Click to expand...
TSM is a leader in Foundry advanced manufacturing. Who leads what is driven by the fabless designers.

You pump AI with little deeper understanding. LLM are an interesting new development but I haven’t seen one thing they have really driven a home run money or business win. The only win is all the deep pockets spending like crazy FOMO.

What is key to solving the worlds problems will be human inventiveness and their smart application of technology. AI/ML ain’t solving the worlds health, food or population problems
 
IF China would hypothetically go to war over Taiwan (which they won't), this would not necessarily mean a full-scale invasion, with D-Day style amphibious landings, etc. The comparison with Ukraine is limited in this regard. Ukraine is a huge and flat country, ideal for tank warfare and large-scale battles (the frontlines are several thousand kms long), whose interest to the West lies mainly in its strategic position next to Russia and the Black Sea, i.e. the country's geography itself is its main prize. As long as the country exists, it has value. On the other hand, Taiwan is a somewhat small and mountainous island (20 times smaller than Ukraine), whose interest to the world powers (China included) lies mainly in its advanced manufacturing capabilities. Those happen to be located in a few urban centers, the rest of the island is "useless" in strategical terms, i.e. no one is interested in controlling huge mountain peaks devoid of urban centers. All those TSMC fabs, Foxconn, D-Link, etc. factories, if destroyed (and any target can eventually be destroyed with today's technology) would turn Taiwan into a Casus Belli fundamentally void of any sense, for the US to go into an open conflict with China. After, say, a month of heavy bombing, what interest would there remain in a destroyed Taipei? We can be 100% sure that the Chinese military (and others) are very accurately analyzing how many low-tech drones vs. expensive cruise missiles vs. strategical bombers are needed in Ukraine to level a target of the size of a Semiconductor Fab. We all know in this forum you can't make semiconductor chips in a war environment. This might sound harsh (and it is) but this is how wars are won. IF China would successfully destroy Taiwan's manufacturing capabilities (or even very strongly deny shipping to and from the island), how do you think the rest of the world would react, facing a potential long-term shortage of chips because of a war in the Straits region? TSMC Engineers could be evacuated for sure, but tbh, they're not that important (they would be debriefed Operation Paperclip-style and then perhaps employed somewhere else.)
 
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