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Taiwan Should Destroy Island’s Semiconductor Industry If China Invades?!?!?!

hga

New member
They should certainly say they will.
Exactly.

I can't imagine our host is unfamiliar with the concept of deterrence, and has never heard of scorched earth policies, which per that Wikipedia article are known to go back to ~500 BC.

Absent internal subversion, a sufficiently successful invasion of Taiwan should result in Taiwan's critical semiconductor infrastructure being reduced to twisted metal bathed in chemical hell stews. It's been rumored explosives have been prepositioned in magazines close to factories like the Swiss did and may still do.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
The Asia media is full on board so its working:





Personally I think it's old school military thinking that will more likely cause a war rather than prevent it. A double dog dare per say and China will not back down, not the CCP anyway.
 
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Andy1299

Member
The Asia media is full on board so its working:




Personally I think it's old school military thinking that will more likely cause a war rather than prevent it. A double dog dare per say and China will not back down, not the CCP anyway.
It’s correct thinking both in the past and now. One of the main goals for China in taking Taiwan is capture of the semi industry knowledge and capacity. Despite China/CCP stubbornness, anything you can do add uncertainty to the obtainability of that goal reduces incentive for war vs. increases. That and Taiwan’s missiles aimed at key China power/ industry is the best way to deter military action.
 

Andy1299

Member
An ounce of diplomacy is worth a ton of war. A deterrent only exists in the mind of the beholder.
Diplomacy is always preferable, however, it only works when there is something behind it.

If the above wasn't true then the EU would carry the same international diplomatic weight as the US vs. being largely ignored...
 

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
A different approach would be to move as much talent as possible and have them work remotely from the US. Also, have last minute evacuation plans for key people and enough parts of equipment that are hard to replace to Australia or the US.
 

Andy1299

Member
A different approach would be to move as much talent as possible and have them work remotely from the US. Also, have last minute evacuation plans for key people and enough parts of equipment that are hard to replace to Australia or the US.
I had a similar thought on the parts -> ones that only asml/ asml supplier can make
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
 

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
The US Military sure does think differently:

Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan

Giving careful thought about one of my largest holdings, removing key, impossible to replace pieces of strategic equipment and software could accomplish the same thing and become bargaining chips in future negotiations or simply just destroy pieces the Chinese could not obtain. It would make for some very interesting bargaining. Also strategically located and very sophisticated explosive on long time triggers could also give the Chinese something to think about.

I wonder if it is possible for the Chinese to realize the extreme value of a peace dividend of collaboration and cooperation. We obviously have poor negotiators on both sides. The trade conflict could easily cause as much damage as a major war. Maybe its time for real time online negotiations for total transparency for all.
 

hkwint

Active member
Well, if TSMC was rigged, all China would have to do to tank $20 billion of market value in US stocks and cause a stock market meltdown leading to mass panic would be to 'take leadership' over Taiwan right?

Sinking TSMC would immediately bankrupt Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Xilinx, soon Intel - and many others, while damaging Tesla, Amazon, Facebook and many others. Fund managers would lower stock targets of those stocks if such a risk really existed, vaporizing billions of USD. Just look how they calculate climate risks these days.

China on the other hand would not be hit that hard, they can't access advanced EUV tools right now. Sinking TSMC would lead to their home fabs being competitive again.

I'd assume the wealthy people in power in the US are not OK with that excruciatingly stupid scenario.
 

kvas

New member
I was thinking about the idea of deterrence by threatening to destroy TSMC for a while. Initially it seemed like an obvious good idea to me but now I'm much less convinced. After learning more about China, it seems to me that semiconductors are not their primary reason for wanting Taiwan, so saying "you won't get TSMC if you conquer Taiwan" seems like weak deterrence, particularly when TSMC is already limiting the sales of leading edge tech to China. OTOH, destruction of TSMC would improve China's relative position in the technology war against the West -- now this doesn't sound like deterrence at all, does it?

(trigger warning: wild speculation follows)

But what if we could evacuate TSMC from Taiwan? Imagine the US setting up a special economic zone (let's call it "Taiwania" for convenience), where Taiwanese citizens and businesses could easily relocate. Then TSMC could start building fabs in Taiwania, its suppliers could also set up business there, and anyone from Taiwan could go too if they fancy it. Some people from the US would follow and Taiwania would eventually become a big semiconductor innovation hub ensuring semiconductor independence for the US while rescuing the people of Taiwan (or rather those that would like to be rescued) from their current predicament. Eventually China could take over Taiwan the island while Taiwan the people would be (partially) in Taiwania with hopefully more freedom than they would get after becoming part of China. Now we have also prevented WW3, yay!

Obviously, there are many reasons why this plan might not work: the US wouldn't want to set this up, people of Taiwan will not want to leave their home, or they will not want to move to the US and lose sovereignty, China consider this to be crossing their red lines, TSMC in Taiwania wouldn't be as good as the original; finally this might just take too long and the takeover will happen before any substantial move happened. But surely the plan that I have invented in 15 minutes can be improved a lot if some smart people got to it. Why are they all optimising ad impressions on cat-video sharing platforms anyway -- there are more important things to do!
 

hist78

Well-known member
The US Military sure does think differently:

Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan


"The US Military sure does think differently"

During and after the WWII, US Army four-star General Joseph Stilwell claimed and successfully convince the White House that Chinese Communist Party is a land ownership reformer and will bring peace, prosperity, and democracy to China.

I think US Army War College should spend some decent amount of energy to study why a West Point graduated four-star general and some other with the same behavior got such twisted brains.
 
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hkwint

Active member
I was thinking about the idea of deterrence by threatening to destroy TSMC for a while. Initially it seemed like an obvious good idea to me but now I'm much less convinced. After learning more about China, it seems to me that semiconductors are not their primary reason for wanting Taiwan, so saying "you won't get TSMC if you conquer Taiwan" seems like weak deterrence, particularly when TSMC is already limiting the sales of leading edge tech to China. OTOH, destruction of TSMC would improve China's relative position in the technology war against the West -- now this doesn't sound like deterrence at all, does it?

(trigger warning: wild speculation follows)

But what if we could evacuate TSMC from Taiwan? Imagine the US setting up a special economic zone (let's call it "Taiwania" for convenience), where Taiwanese citizens and businesses could easily relocate. Then TSMC could start building fabs in Taiwania,

Well, a certain piece of Phoenix is already becoming some kind of Taiwania right?
 
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