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Taiwan and TSM now safer

China's hand is too good and it's getting better for them to make any mistake. They're going to be so much wealthier in 20 years, why put so much at risk if they're going to be in a better position in the future? Russia, however, will be in a weaker position in the future because of renewables and so on.
 
Russia is the largest country in Europe in terms of land area. But Ukraine is large too and is only second to Russia. Actually Ukraine's land area is larger than Germany and UK combine. Ukraine population is 43 million and population density is 75 persons per square km. Russian 200,000 invasion force is < 0.4 person per square km in Ukraine. Considering the fierce resistance from Ukrainian people and the unprecedented support provided by NATO and EU for Ukraine, there isn't too much hope for Putin's victory.

This war is causing and will cause a lot casualties on both sides. And Putin's purpose is to rebuild the glory of Russia Empire?! It's crazy. It's a 21st century human tragedy made by a former KGB officer's fantasy.
Indeed. This is now "The War Of Putin's Ego". One man's delusional attempt to rebuild a Russian empire that no one wants. Perhaps the Russian/Soviet empire didn't fully collapse in 1991 as we assumed and this is the final iteration before it does.
 
No one is safer because of this and I wouldn't equate Ukraine/Russia with China/Taiwan, although I agree this will make China's dream of reunification much trickier.

As far they're concerned, Ukraine was given independence by Lenin because he believed in a people's right to self-determination, while Taiwan is "the Alamo" for the losers of a civil war, ones who would later provide a convenient staging ground for the hot wars against communism in Korea and Vietnam.





Yeah I wouldn't get worked up by media from either side for another few weeks, too much misinformation and fog of war. If Georgia was any indicator, they sent newbies to absorb the initial resistance and gain experience, while Spetsnaz and the Chechens will follow on to clean up the insurgency.

Troop and materiel numbers suggest that Russia has allocated slightly greater than the 3:1 ratio that is historically recommended for a decisive victory. That they didn't immediately destroy all of Ukraine's air force has raised a lot of eyebrows, perhaps they screwed up but maybe they are holding back. Baghdad, a logistically tougher objective than Kiev, still took three weeks for the US to conquer and at the time people criticized that it was too fast and intense, and we should all know how that panned out.

The only certainty is that the people of Ukraine and Russia, and definitely not America, will suffer for this massive failure of diplomacy. We'll happily flood the country with munitions while continuing to smother Russia economically, leaving them no recourse but to double down. You'd think when it came time to dismantle the USSR we would've applied a learning or two from the Treaty of Versailles, but alas.
"Lenin because he believed in a people's right to self-determination".

Stop right there. No, he didn't. He and his successors enslaved many countries within their disastrous empire.

Let's get another thing straight. Russia has not been a normal, rule of law country for at least the past 100 years. I suspect it would have made little difference what we did. Until they sort themselves out and get rid of the corrupt kleptocrats and dictators running the show, it probably makes very little odds what we do. This is all on them. Feel guilty if it makes you feel better. I'm not going to waste any cycles doing so. I suspect containment/isolation of this toxic hazard is the best we can do.

Take a look around the world. Everything the Russians have touched over the last 100 years has been made worse. The US has at least sometimes made things better. North Korea vs South Korea.
 
"Lenin because he believed in a people's right to self-determination".

Stop right there. No, he didn't. He and his successors enslaved many countries within their disastrous empire.

Let's get another thing straight. Russia has not been a normal, rule of law country for at least the past 100 years. I suspect it would have made little difference what we did. Until they sort themselves out and get rid of the corrupt kleptocrats and dictators running the show, it probably makes very little odds what we do. This is all on them. Feel guilty if it makes you feel better. I'm not going to waste any cycles doing so. I suspect containment/isolation of this toxic hazard is the best we can do.

Take a look around the world. Everything the Russians have touched over the last 100 years has been made worse. The US has at least sometimes made things better. North Korea vs South Korea.
That's an oversimplification at best. Just look at the situation in the former USSR republics in Central Asia. They turned into dictatorships which are fast regressing in all respects: civil rights, education, industrial developments etc. Moldova and Ukraine became the poorest countries in Europe. Ukraine used to have fairly advanced industry. They basically lost all of it: ship building, space rockets, aviation, semiconductor industry etc. They are all gone. They are quickly turning into an agricultural country.
 
That's an oversimplification at best. Just look at the situation in the former USSR republics in Central Asia. They turned into dictatorships which are fast regressing in all respects: civil rights, education, industrial developments etc. Moldova and Ukraine became the poorest countries in Europe. Ukraine used to have fairly advanced industry. They basically lost all of it: ship building, space rockets, aviation, semiconductor industry etc. They are all gone. They are quickly turning into an agricultural country.
So let's see. Before WW2 East Germany was the most industrially advanced region of Germany. 40 years later, they were producing cars made from compressed cardboard (Trabants). Romania was a major food exporter - important enough that Germany effectively took it over. After the war, agriculture plumetted, Russia took half the food and they had severe food rationing. Czechoslovakia was a thriving country before WW2.

Also, notice how Ukraine is now a major food exporter. Compared to famines and food rationing under Soviet rule. There is nothing wrong with being an "agricultural country" if that is where your competitive advantange lies.

I don't go with this [I accept that you probably don't intend it] "victim blaming" - it is not the Ukrainians' fault that they had communism forced on them and that those industries were not competitive as a result (they could only survive in the make belief world of Soviet economics).
 
"Lenin because he believed in a people's right to self-determination".

Stop right there. No, he didn't.
I'm just saying this is probably how the CCP looks at it, especially given that it's one of their own foundational principles. Lenin also wrote the book on it years before the October Revolution when he never expected to gain power, so it can hold water despite how the USSR might've devolved.

This is all on them. Feel guilty if it makes you feel better. I'm not going to waste any cycles doing so. I suspect containment/isolation of this toxic hazard is the best we can do.
This kind of vitriol is what has preceded every genocide in history.

Take a look around the world. Everything the Russians have touched over the last 100 years has been made worse. The US has at least sometimes made things better. North Korea vs South Korea.
Take a look at mass killings of millions of unarmed Indonesian communists in the 60s and how that basically threw gasoline on Mao Zedong's cultural revolution and the Vietnam War. Or learn about what the CIA/Belgians did to PM Patrice Lumumba, setting off the Congo Crisis that basically underwrote the semiconductor industry that we all enjoy to this day. The one most directly relavent to this conflict is the Shock Doctrine we subjected Russia to in the 90s after they opened up, and for doing so their average life expectancy decreased by 6 years in 6 years.

But all of that is complex and lacks a clean "good vs. evil" "us vs. them" narrative to cling to so if it's easier to just foam at the mouth and kill off an entire civilization then I guess I understand, as it has all happened before seemingly it will all happen again.
 
So let's see. Before WW2 East Germany was the most industrially advanced region of Germany. 40 years later, they were producing cars made from compressed cardboard (Trabants). Romania was a major food exporter - important enough that Germany effectively took it over. After the war, agriculture plumetted, Russia took half the food and they had severe food rationing. Czechoslovakia was a thriving country before WW2.

Also, notice how Ukraine is now a major food exporter. Compared to famines and food rationing under Soviet rule. There is nothing wrong with being an "agricultural country" if that is where your competitive advantange lies.

I don't go with this [I accept that you probably don't intend it] "victim blaming" - it is not the Ukrainians' fault that they had communism forced on them and that those industries were not competitive as a result (they could only survive in the make belief world of Soviet economics).
These are valid examples but then you can find dozens of US allied countries, say, in Latin America that were (still are) doing much worse than East Germany.
Also, notice how Russia is now a major food exporter too (for example, they export 2x the amount of wheat compared to Ukraine) whereas USSR was importing wheat. They also started exporting pork, chicken and some other stuff.
Also, while Ukraine lost its industry, Russia did not (or at least not to the same extent).

A lot of this has to do with the socialist experiment. Russia just happened to be at the center of it. The socialist camp got isolated from the rest of the world. Under such circumstances any social system probably would not fare well. But look at the communist China today - the biggest economy in the world (by PPP) :)

Or take an example or Baltic States. They joined EU long ago. How are they doing? Not so well. They all lost 10 to 30% of their population after becoming independent in 1991. Their economies are not doing great either (even with huge EU subsidies). They do not have any industries to speak of (granted they are small) and mostly make money on agriculture and railroad and sea port services servicing Russian needs.

I am just saying that this is complicated. A lot of information we get in our (western) press is too one sided. The criticism is often valid but exaggerated and serious analysis is just not available (at least not in the mainstream press).
 
These are valid examples but then you can find dozens of US allied countries, say, in Latin America that were (still are) doing much worse than East Germany.
Also, notice how Russia is now a major food exporter too (for example, they export 2x the amount of wheat compared to Ukraine) whereas USSR was importing wheat. They also started exporting pork, chicken and some other stuff.
Also, while Ukraine lost its industry, Russia did not (or at least not to the same extent).

A lot of this has to do with the socialist experiment. Russia just happened to be at the center of it. The socialist camp got isolated from the rest of the world. Under such circumstances any social system probably would not fare well. But look at the communist China today - the biggest economy in the world (by PPP) :)

Or take an example or Baltic States. They joined EU long ago. How are they doing? Not so well. They all lost 10 to 30% of their population after becoming independent in 1991. Their economies are not doing great either (even with huge EU subsidies). They do not have any industries to speak of (granted they are small) and mostly make money on agriculture and railroad and sea port services servicing Russian needs.

I am just saying that this is complicated. A lot of information we get in our (western) press is too one sided. The criticism is often valid but exaggerated and serious analysis is just not available (at least not in the mainstream press).
GDP per capital of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are twice of Russia.
 
Europe and the world won't enforce a no fly zone in Ukraine because a fear of world war 3. Democratic states like ukraine, taiwan, and Eastern Europe states will need an affordable fighter jet. They may not have air superiority but not to concede air control will save lives, infrastructure, and national treasures. I know that Taiwan has their own aircraft on development but the cancelling of the lavi is looking like a penny wise pound foolish decision. I hope there is something in the works.
 
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