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I think the possibility for this deal to get approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is less than 30%. Unless there are some major restrictions or spin-off, although I don't see any feasible way to structure it.
Yes. I was at the Gartner/SEMI symposium today and the kickoff reception for SEMICON. There was a lot of skepticism about whether it would get approved. But Intel is an investor in Tsinghua Unigroup and does joint vertical flash stuff with Micron. If Intel wants it to happen it might make it more likely.
When it comes to national security (by whatever definition US government sees), CFIUS, Congress, and Senate have repeatedly denied or intervened business deals or transactions between US companies and Chinese companies. The amount of US Treasury securities PROC owned didn't overcome the political reality in those cases.
If this acquisition can get approval from CFIUS, then the structure of technology transfer restriction in place for many years and jointly enforced by US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan), and South Korea will become meaningless.
While I do think CFIUS will ultimately block the sale of Micron, I would argue it makes little sense to do so.
1. Micron isn't the leader in cutting-edge DRAM technology. The Koreans (specifically Samsung) clearly are at this point.
2. DRAM is a commodity. Prices have been dropping & demand is low (hence Micron's current stock price). Maybe someone can enlighten me on what exactly the national security concerns?
3. Ultimately China will get want it wants if its determined to do so (given time & China's substantial financial resources). Take for example, China's armed forces. Previously in the 80s, Taiwan (with US-supplied weapons technology) would easily repeal an attack by the mainland. Now...Taiwan would fall if China truly decided to take over. NOTE: I'm definitely not saying this is a good thing. But my argument would be that there is nothing we can do (other than slow it) to prevent China from ultimately getting the technology. If this is the case, why not let Micron (and the market) decide the value & make China pay accordingly?