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Sketchy Report Suggests That Intel Plans To Offload Its Sub-3nm Processes On TSMC, And An Industry Analyst Contends That It’s All Downhill From Here

fansink

fansink

Active member
Lu Xingzhi or Andrew Lu, a well-regarded industry analyst, recently penned an interesting Facebook post, arguing that Intel's inflows were now insufficient to support a CapEx of between $5 billion and $6 billion that is needed to sustain the R&D activities and the eventual mass production cadence of the company's advanced production nodes. Critically, the analyst now believes that Intel's technology lag vis-a-vis its other peers in the industry will continue to increase.

Interestingly, Andrew Lu also believes that TSMC will likely pick up a lot more orders as Intel continues to flounder, with the CapEx of the Taiwan-based giant expected to soar to around $40 billion by next year.

Of course, if Intel does end up punting on orders related to its advanced production nodes, it will have to severely modify or even jettison its current overarching strategy to deliver margin expansion, one that sees the company doubling down on its foundry division to drive aggressive growth and, concurrently, eke out cost savings of "more than $8 billion to $10 billion exiting 2025," which would allow for a non-GAAP gross margin of around 60 percent and non-GAAP operating margins of around 40 percent by 2030.

www.google.com

A Sketchy Report Suggests That Intel Plans To Offload Its Sub-3nm Processes On TSMC, And An Industry Analyst Contends That It's All Downhill From Here

Intel's indigenous resources will likely not be able to support the capital expenditure required by its advanced production nodes.
www.google.com www.google.com
 
fansink said:
Lu Xingzhi or Andrew Lu, a well-regarded industry analyst, recently penned an interesting Facebook post, arguing that Intel's inflows were now insufficient to support a CapEx of between $5 billion and $6 billion that is needed to sustain the R&D activities and the eventual mass production cadence of the company's advanced production nodes. Critically, the analyst now believes that Intel's technology lag vis-a-vis its other peers in the industry will continue to increase.

Interestingly, Andrew Lu also believes that TSMC will likely pick up a lot more orders as Intel continues to flounder, with the CapEx of the Taiwan-based giant expected to soar to around $40 billion by next year.

Of course, if Intel does end up punting on orders related to its advanced production nodes, it will have to severely modify or even jettison its current overarching strategy to deliver margin expansion, one that sees the company doubling down on its foundry division to drive aggressive growth and, concurrently, eke out cost savings of "more than $8 billion to $10 billion exiting 2025," which would allow for a non-GAAP gross margin of around 60 percent and non-GAAP operating margins of around 40 percent by 2030.

www.google.com

A Sketchy Report Suggests That Intel Plans To Offload Its Sub-3nm Processes On TSMC, And An Industry Analyst Contends That It's All Downhill From Here

Intel's indigenous resources will likely not be able to support the capital expenditure required by its advanced production nodes.
www.google.com www.google.com
Click to expand...
sub-3nm of TSMC is not on the table, I doubt that Intel can transition to TSMC for now with all their 18A product lines. It's too big to make that transition.

As I argued before, Intel may not have the money to continue the capex for 18A, what they can do still is license the technology to Samsung, and let Samsung spent the capex. Samsung has far more EUV, and most the EUV are still under-utilized.
 
delong.height said:
sub-3nm of TSMC is not on the table, I doubt that Intel can transition to TSMC for now with all their 18A product lines. It's too big to make that transition.

As I argued before, Intel may not have the money to continue the capex for 18A, what they can do still is license the technology to Samsung, and let Samsung spent the capex. Samsung has far more EUV, and most the EUV are still under-utilized.
Click to expand...

Somehow, I can't find any major semiconductor technology transfer from one company to another that developed into a great success, except for one. I might be wrong, or perhaps I am missing something?


The failures (or not a big sucess):
  • DEC sold its StrongARM division to Intel as part of a lawsuit settlement. Intel later sold the division to Marvell.

  • IBM's technology transfer to UMC at 28nm, 10nm, etc.

  • IBM's technology transfer to Samsung.

  • IBM's technology transfer to GlobalFoundries through the IBM Semiconductor spinoff. GlobalFoundries stopped at 7nm, and now IBM and GlobalFoundries are suing each other.

  • Samsung 14nm technology transfer to GlobalFoundries.
The success:
  • RCA transferred its 7.5-micron CMOS and 3-inch wafer manufacturing technology to ITRI of Taiwan in the 1970s. That eventually led to the creation of many semiconductor companies we know today, such as UMC, TSMC, and MediaTek.
 
hist78 said:
Somehow, I can't find any major semiconductor technology transfer from one company to another that developed into a great success, except for one. I might be wrong, or perhaps I am missing something?


The failures (or not a big sucess):
  • DEC sold its StrongARM division to Intel as part of a lawsuit settlement. Intel later sold the division to Marvell.

  • IBM's technology transfer to UMC at 28nm, 10nm, etc.

  • IBM's technology transfer to Samsung.

  • IBM's technology transfer to GlobalFoundries through the IBM Semiconductor spinoff. GlobalFoundries stopped at 7nm, and now IBM and GlobalFoundries are suing each other.

  • Samsung 14nm technology transfer to GlobalFoundries.
The success:
  • RCA transferred its 7.5-micron CMOS and 3-inch wafer manufacturing technology to ITRI of Taiwan in the 1970s. That eventually led to the creation of many semiconductor companies we know today, such as UMC, TSMC, and MediaTek.
Click to expand...

When a company that starts with an "I" offers you a technology.....
 
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