Semis now Competing with People

[Arthur Hanson]

Semis have now advanced to the point they are now competing with people on a scale not previously fully taken into account , so if the semi sector is going down, so will the market for people, especially with AI/ML now advancing at breakneck speed. Any thoughts, expansions on this appreciated.

 

[nghanayem]

The steam engine and nitrogen fertilizer created far more jobs than they took away and enriched all members of society (in spite of fears at the time that they would impoverish society by killing people's jobs). In my opinion there is no reason to believe that AI will be any different. Lots of jobs will cease to be, but new jobs will take their place. Water and steam powered textile factories killed tons of handmaiden/cottage industry jobs, but created tons of jobs in these new factories. Computers increased the output per employee many times over and totally eliminated some jobs like low level accountants and human-calculators. One final example would be automated farming equipment and the Haber-Boche process increased output per farmer by hundreds if not thousands of percent. At first glance this might seem terrible given like 95% of the world's people were farmers before the first industrial revolution, but in reality it just freed up people from just sustaining themselves farming to fueling further industrial developments. I see AI/ML spreading to more sectors than it was already in the same way. I see no indication that AI/ML proliferating into more applications won't be any different.

 

[MKWVentures]

@Arthur Hanson

IMO progress creates jobs. Different jobs maybe... so you need to adapt.

I am not sure what AI/ML advancing at breakneck speed means. What in your mind is the current impact of AI on job elimination? how are we being impacted today or in 2023?

I asked ChatGPT and it said it didnt know. It did say customer service request can be answered by AI instead of a call center. It also said robot use is growing in manufacturing.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

Factories have been operating dark(no people, no light, no climate control) for years and now this may even extend to offices for periods of time or sharply reduced staffing. AI/ML will greatly leverage talent and its productivity.

 

[MKWVentures]

Factories have been operating dark(no people, no light, no climate control) for years and now this may even extend to offices for periods of time or sharply reduced staffing. AI/ML will greatly leverage talent and its productivity.

@Arthur Hanson .... checking on details. Which major factory is operating with no people, no light, no climate control?

 

[Paul2]

The steam engine and nitrogen fertilizer created far more jobs than they took away and enriched all members of society

I would argue, the correct phrasing should be "The steam engine and nitrogen fertilizer created far more jobs than they took away from enriched members of society"

Prior to steam engine such amount of bulk physical labour was only accessible to barons, and others who can round up lowest societal castes with force.

Before chemical fertilizers, agricultural production was heavily influenced by government guano monopolies, which taxed food production, and, indirectly, much of the population that way.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

@Arthur Hanson .... checking on details. Which major factory is operating with no people, no light, no climate control?

Just google it, I know many people who have worked in plants that go DARK through the night shift. This has been going on for over twenty years. There are numerous examples posted of plants going dark at night and just having a day shift.

 

[rchang94]

Just google it, I know many people who have worked in plants that go DARK through the night shift. This has been going on for over twenty years. There are numerous examples posted of plants going dark at night and just having a day shift.

But if you know many people working in those plants does it contradict "no people".

 

[Arthur Hanson]

But if you know many people working in those plants does it contradict "no people".

There are still people, but in many cases the headcount is cut in half or even more.

 

[rchang94]

There are still people, but in many cases the headcount is cut in half or even more.

I think risk will be on the low value labor. Short-term probably more divided society but long-term frees up people's time to do other things. On aggregate basis should help human as a specie advance to next level. Obviously the counter argument would be AI leads to our extinction.

 

[benb]

A person must decide:
-I have faith in the free market, capitalism, Adam Smith's invisible hand directing the butcher, the baker and the candlestick makers maximize their selfish self-interest it is not a net negative but a net positive for society as a whole, despite the creative destruction when the butcher can fire 75% of the staff and use automation, including AI
-I don't trust the free market, want limits on capitalism, view the invisible hand as a pseudo-religion, think people should be punished for being selfish rather than rewarded, don't want creative destruction and would punish the butcher if he fires 75% of the staff

I fall more into the first category, but more because it's default when there is no competent leadership; maybe I'm against leadership, fundamentally.

 

[tooLongInEDA]

A person must decide:
-I have faith in the free market, capitalism, Adam Smith's invisible hand directing the butcher, the baker and the candlestick makers maximize their selfish self-interest it is not a net negative but a net positive for society as a whole, despite the creative destruction when the butcher can fire 75% of the staff and use automation, including AI
-I don't trust the free market, want limits on capitalism, view the invisible hand as a pseudo-religion, think people should be punished for being selfish rather than rewarded, don't want creative destruction and would punish the butcher if he fires 75% of the staff

I fall more into the first category, but more because it's default when there is no competent leadership; maybe I'm against leadership, fundamentally.

If you work in the semiconductor business, you've almost certainly signed up for creative destruction and are in the first category. Basically, almost all technology means creative destruction of whatever it replaces (unless it's a completely new area).

Ironically, the second category is often labelled "progressive". But in fact is often inhibiting progress.

Of course, in practice we're all a mix of both.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

More than any other sector, semis of all types and sophistication are changing the whole business ecosystem at every level. This extends from design to production to marketing and finally distribution. This process is only accelerating and going on steriods with AI/ML getting to the point they are changing everything, and their potential is still largely unexplored. I can't even imagine what tranformations society, culture, government and business will be like ten years from now. I just hope wisdom prevails over the vast power that is going to be created with the new tools of every type at our disposal. Never before has mankind had true AI/ML to work with. This is a new frontier and no one will be able to predict the outcome, just educated guesses.