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Kissinger doesn’t see China invasion of Taiwan in next decade

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
No mention of the Silicon Shield but I agree completely. TSMC should also aggressively move forward with plans to build fabs in India. It wouldn't hurt to have the second most populated country in your corner, absolutely.


Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said he doesn’t foresee a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan in the next decade, though it’s “perfectly possible” that China will seek to weaken the island’s status.

“I don’t expect an all-out attack on Taiwan in, say, a 10-year period, which is as far as I can see,” Kissinger said in an interview on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” to air Sunday.

Kissinger, 98, who also served as national security adviser and helped pave the way for President Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to China, offered that “everyone wants to be a China hawk” and “everyone assumes that China is determined to dominate the world and that that is its primary objective.”

But he said there shouldn’t be an automatic rivalry and competition with the U.S., and that he thinks President Joe Biden during the virtual summit last week with Chinese leader Xi Jinping “began to move in a direction of a different road.”

China’s claim that Taiwan is a breakaway province to be taken by force if necessary was a contentious part the Biden-Xi talks. A Chinese Communist Party resolution reflecting Xi’s agenda advocated pushing for union with Taiwan, though it stopped short of listing unification as a near-term goal.

“We should have a principal goal of avoiding confrontation,” Kissinger told CNN. Still, he said it’s “foreseeable” that China “will take measures that will weaken the Taiwanese ability to appear substantially autonomous.”
 

soAsian

Member
I don't see China attacking Taiwan either unless CCP factions in fight get worse. Xi haven't make a trip outside of China for years. Xi is trying to extend his term. that's outside of CCP's norm. the factions inside CCP might not agree or happy that Xi might be the leader for another decade.

Xi might take Taiwan to show the Chinese people why he should stay on another term or two but that carry a risk.

Taiwan is the prefect punch bag for CCP. anything and everything that might cause the internal problems/pressures can be easily distracted by punching Taiwan and pump up the patriotic cry.
 

Lorien

New member
As someone who grew up in Taiwan in the 90's, threat of Chinese invasion is very overblown in Western media (and honestly I suspect a lot of it is click bait, riding on the sudden spotlight on Taiwan due to the chip shortage).

China-Taiwan relations isn't great right now because of the DPP government. China cares a lot about its image so it tends to make bombastic threats whenever it perceives that Taiwan is trying to assert independence, but the unspoken truth is that both sides are fine with maintaining the status quo indefinitely. Their economies are very deeply entwined and neither side stands to gain much from a war.
 

hist78

Well-known member
No mention of the Silicon Shield but I agree completely. TSMC should also aggressively move forward with plans to build fabs in India. It wouldn't hurt to have the second most populated country in your corner, absolutely.


Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said he doesn’t foresee a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan in the next decade, though it’s “perfectly possible” that China will seek to weaken the island’s status.

“I don’t expect an all-out attack on Taiwan in, say, a 10-year period, which is as far as I can see,” Kissinger said in an interview on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” to air Sunday.

Kissinger, 98, who also served as national security adviser and helped pave the way for President Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to China, offered that “everyone wants to be a China hawk” and “everyone assumes that China is determined to dominate the world and that that is its primary objective.”

But he said there shouldn’t be an automatic rivalry and competition with the U.S., and that he thinks President Joe Biden during the virtual summit last week with Chinese leader Xi Jinping “began to move in a direction of a different road.”

China’s claim that Taiwan is a breakaway province to be taken by force if necessary was a contentious part the Biden-Xi talks. A Chinese Communist Party resolution reflecting Xi’s agenda advocated pushing for union with Taiwan, though it stopped short of listing unification as a near-term goal.

“We should have a principal goal of avoiding confrontation,” Kissinger told CNN. Still, he said it’s “foreseeable” that China “will take measures that will weaken the Taiwanese ability to appear substantially autonomous.”

"“We should have a principal goal of avoiding confrontation,” Kissinger told CNN. "

It's kind of sad such words can come from Kissinger. I don't know what have happened to his fading ability to comprehend the world and the reality.

PRC/CCP is intimidating and bullying everyone in the East Asia including South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Philippine, Indonesia, Malaysia, and ROC(Taiwan). What Kissinger said is similar to the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's disaster appeasement policy toward Nazi Germany. Chamberlain's wishful thinking contributed to more Nazi's aggression and millions deaths.

Fortunately the past and the current US administrations and Congress know the history and understand the reality. They understand that appeasement or be a "nice" guy is not an option to keep US and allies safe.
 
Last edited:

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Here's another article on the same speech with a little more history. The last line is the best:


Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said Sunday that even though China continues to covet Taiwan, he doesn’t expect China to launch an invasion of the island.

“I don't expect an all-out attack on Taiwan in, say, a 10-year period, which is as far as I can see,” Kissinger said on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS.”
Discussing President Joe Biden’s virtual summit last week with President Xi Jinping, Kissinger noted that the situation surrounding Taiwan is one that hadn’t changed much since he and President Richard Nixon established a connection with China in the early 1970s.

“I believe that the ultimate joining of Taiwan and China, the ultimate creation of one China, is the objective of Chinese policy,” Kissinger told Zakaria, “as it has been since the creation of the current regime and that it probably would be in any Chinese government since Taiwan has been considered a historic part of China that was taken away by Japan, by force. That was exactly the situation Nixon and I faced when we first began contact with China.“

Kissinger said Biden was hamstrung entering the virtual summit by domestic political constraints — “Everyone wants to be a China hawk” — but said he saw evidence that Biden was attempting to steer the U.S.-China relationship in a more productive direction.

“I think Biden began to move in a direction of a different tone. That does not mean it is yielding to China; it is to try to find a level in which we can talk about those things that are known to be common,” said Kissinger, who, at age 98, is the co-author of a new book, “The Age of AI: And Our Human Future.”

Nixon surprised the world by visiting China in early 1972, the first American president to do so since Mao Zedong had established a Communist government there in 1949. Nixon’s visit was preceded by secret visits by Kissinger, then-Nixon’s national security adviser, in 1971. "We have come to the People's Republic of China with an open mind and an open heart," Kissinger told Zhou Enlai, China's prime minister, in their meeting July 9, 1971.

A half-century later, Kissinger said the relationship remains complicated, particularly given China’s military strength.

“When I first went to China, it was a poor and weak and very assertive country,” he said. “Now it is a fairly rich, quite strong and still fairly assertive country. But our challenge then and our challenge now is to find the relationship in which we can compete without driving the situation into a holocaust. And that is a big challenge for both leaders.”

Kissinger added: “The challenge in any conflict is not how you begin it but whether you know how to end it.“
 

hist78

Well-known member
Here's another article on the same speech with a little more history. The last line is the best:


Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said Sunday that even though China continues to covet Taiwan, he doesn’t expect China to launch an invasion of the island.

“I don't expect an all-out attack on Taiwan in, say, a 10-year period, which is as far as I can see,” Kissinger said on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS.”
Discussing President Joe Biden’s virtual summit last week with President Xi Jinping, Kissinger noted that the situation surrounding Taiwan is one that hadn’t changed much since he and President Richard Nixon established a connection with China in the early 1970s.

“I believe that the ultimate joining of Taiwan and China, the ultimate creation of one China, is the objective of Chinese policy,” Kissinger told Zakaria, “as it has been since the creation of the current regime and that it probably would be in any Chinese government since Taiwan has been considered a historic part of China that was taken away by Japan, by force. That was exactly the situation Nixon and I faced when we first began contact with China.“

Kissinger said Biden was hamstrung entering the virtual summit by domestic political constraints — “Everyone wants to be a China hawk” — but said he saw evidence that Biden was attempting to steer the U.S.-China relationship in a more productive direction.

“I think Biden began to move in a direction of a different tone. That does not mean it is yielding to China; it is to try to find a level in which we can talk about those things that are known to be common,” said Kissinger, who, at age 98, is the co-author of a new book, “The Age of AI: And Our Human Future.”

Nixon surprised the world by visiting China in early 1972, the first American president to do so since Mao Zedong had established a Communist government there in 1949. Nixon’s visit was preceded by secret visits by Kissinger, then-Nixon’s national security adviser, in 1971. "We have come to the People's Republic of China with an open mind and an open heart," Kissinger told Zhou Enlai, China's prime minister, in their meeting July 9, 1971.

A half-century later, Kissinger said the relationship remains complicated, particularly given China’s military strength.

“When I first went to China, it was a poor and weak and very assertive country,” he said. “Now it is a fairly rich, quite strong and still fairly assertive country. But our challenge then and our challenge now is to find the relationship in which we can compete without driving the situation into a holocaust. And that is a big challenge for both leaders.”

Kissinger added: “The challenge in any conflict is not how you begin it but whether you know how to end it.“

Again, Kissinger is losing his basic ability to comprehend the world.

To tell CCP that your foremost principal is to avoid a war is a reckless and dangerous move. Throughout the history, CCP takes such suggestion as an indication of weakness. Determination and force, economic and military, is the only two things CCP recognized.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Again, Kissinger is losing his basic ability to comprehend the world.

To tell CCP that your foremost principal is to avoid a war is a reckless and dangerous move. Throughout the history, CCP takes such suggestion as an indication of weakness. Determination and force, economic and military, is the only two things CCP recognized.

Well' he's 98 years old and I wonder about the book mentioned, I just ordered it on Amazon. Eric Schmidt (SUN/Google) and Daniel Huttenlocher (MIT Computing Dean) are co authors so it should be interesting.

 
Sign of our times than an old goblin with an 8 figure bodycount is probably still way more competent than anyone else in our foreign policy apparatus. At least after causing a bunch of bloodshed he had some capacity to pull out, unlike today where US military/foreign policy is just a nihilist minor league for private defense contracting.
 
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