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Is Nvidia in trouble

B

Brassmonke

New member
Couple question for the community:
#1
I'm sure many of you saw that the Biden Administration confirmed their expansion of export restrictions. https://www.reuters.com/technology/...chips-expand-curbs-more-countries-2023-10-17/
Given that NVDA worked around the initial rollout of the regulation by limiting interconnect of chips sent to China will the new performance based test stymie further shipments? If they only received the updated parameters of the restriction via letter in August it seems that a hardware based solution is off the table.

#2 Was it beneficial to NVDA to produce the H800 because of limited packaging capacity at TSMC?

#3 25% of data center revenue is at risk. Compound that with two customers representing 17% and 22% of Q2 2024 revenue and it seems as if there are potential threats to a sustainable revenue stream. Assuming the two big customers likely MSFT, AMZN,TSLA,AVGO, META. What is the total buildout anticipated for A100/H100 needed at the various megacaps and will the massive buying spree slow as their enterprise spend returns to normal in the coming year (i.e. not able to simply pivot 90% of enterprise spend towards AI APU/TPU)?

I suppose I'm reminded somewhat of the windfall that Pfizer or Moderna experienced followed by a slowly eroding Forward PE as earnings dry up to to demand shortfall and was curious what the big brains of the forum think.
 
China will probably buy more NVIDIA L40S. Less profitable for NVidia but more quantity may benefit TSMC.
 
#2 Was it beneficial to NVDA to produce the H800 because of limited packaging capacity at TSMC?

The funny thing is that ever since the pandemic TSMC customer forecasts have been horrible. Packaging should not be a limit since building out a packaging facility is much easier than building a fab and you can also second and even third source it if you plan ahead. Clearly we are still in the bad forecasting zone.

The vibe I have gotten from the ecosystem is that the semiconductor recovery has started and TSMC will give a positive outlook. On the other side companies have started laying off people so it is a mixed message. Hopefully 2024 begins on a very positive note as Q4 2023 does not look great.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Clearly we are still in the bad forecasting zone.
Click to expand...
Interposer based packaging is not trivial. Easier than leading edge fabs, true, but still a significant amount of work and much of the work is only recently out of the labs.

The reason it is poorly forecasted is due to the phase change in capability which companies waited to see if it worked, including those who developed it, only to discover that it worked so well that they needed it to be competitive and yes it was yielding despite earlier problems. So, product plans changed swiftly. Adding to the complexity the methods of bonding and packaging are still changing which complicates investment in tooling. Nvidia seems to have placed an early bet almost as large as TSMC infrastructure planned. We will see how well AMD have planned. Intel of course are ramping up their own capacity and technology.

For all the advanced work to transition to chiplets over the next 2 years, as seems to be happening, is actually amazingly fast and the strain on capacity would have been hard to avoid in a tech that just a few years ago had a reputation for low yield and lack of EDA or interface IP (these also are still ramping).
 
Brassmonke said:
Couple question for the community:
#1
I'm sure many of you saw that the Biden Administration confirmed their expansion of export restrictions. https://www.reuters.com/technology/...chips-expand-curbs-more-countries-2023-10-17/
Given that NVDA worked around the initial rollout of the regulation by limiting interconnect of chips sent to China will the new performance based test stymie further shipments? If they only received the updated parameters of the restriction via letter in August it seems that a hardware based solution is off the table.

#2 Was it beneficial to NVDA to produce the H800 because of limited packaging capacity at TSMC?

#3 25% of data center revenue is at risk. Compound that with two customers representing 17% and 22% of Q2 2024 revenue and it seems as if there are potential threats to a sustainable revenue stream. Assuming the two big customers likely MSFT, AMZN,TSLA,AVGO, META. What is the total buildout anticipated for A100/H100 needed at the various megacaps and will the massive buying spree slow as their enterprise spend returns to normal in the coming year (i.e. not able to simply pivot 90% of enterprise spend towards AI APU/TPU)?

I suppose I'm reminded somewhat of the windfall that Pfizer or Moderna experienced followed by a slowly eroding Forward PE as earnings dry up to to demand shortfall and was curious what the big brains of the forum think.
Click to expand...

"Assuming the two big customers likely MSFT, AMZN,TSLA,AVGO, META. "

Can you explain a little bit about why AVGO (Broadcom) is possibly one the top two customers of Nvidia?

"I'm sure many of you saw that the Biden Administration confirmed their expansion of export restrictions. https://www.reuters.com/technology/...chips-expand-curbs-more-countries-2023-10-17/
Given that NVDA worked around the initial rollout of the regulation by limiting interconnect of chips sent to China will the new performance based test stymie further shipments? If they only received the updated parameters of the restriction via letter in August it seems that a hardware based solution is off the table."

As far as I know, Nvidia, AMD, Intel or any major US tech companies have their own communication channels to learn or discuss the government's direction of sanctions ahead of any public announcement. They may complain about the new sanctions but often they expressed no "surprise" at all. Nvidia might have been working on something in anticipating the new sanctions for a while.
 
Last edited:
hist78 said:
"Assuming the two big customers likely MSFT, AMZN,TSLA,AVGO, META. "

Can you explain a little bit about why AVGO (Broadcom) is possibly one the top two customers of Nvidia?
Click to expand...
They mentioned VMware and by extension Broadcom so often on the last conference call that it just slipped out. To answer your question, I take it back, I do not think they are top two.
 
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