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Is NVIDIA Feeling the Heat? Supply Chain Reveals March CPO Switch Launch, with Key Focus on Silicon Photonics

XYang2023

Well-known member
Source:

Machine translation:
Is NVIDIA Feeling the Heat? Supply Chain Reveals March CPO Switch Launch, with Key Focus on Silicon Photonics


The GB200 NVL72 server cabinet design is highly complex, with issues such as heat dissipation and signal interference pushing the transition from electrical to optical solutions to become inevitable. Mass production is expected to begin in August.


NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, known for his influential decisions, has kept his schedule tightly under wraps. It is rumored that during NVIDIA’s year-end banquet on January 17, employees were instructed to maintain strict confidentiality, refraining from disclosing the event location and denying media access. However, the supply chain has revealed that NVIDIA plans to launch a new CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) switch product during the March GPU Technology Conference (GTC), with mass production slated for August. Suppliers, including TSMC and Universal Microwave Technology (UMT), are actively preparing for this launch.


However, some equipment manufacturers are skeptical about whether the launch timeline can be met due to capacity limitations of the German supplier Ficontec, which currently provides critical equipment.


Huang’s schedule remains highly secretive. Public appearances include attending the inauguration of the new ASE Kaohsiung facility on January 16, followed by NVIDIA Taiwan’s year-end banquet on January 17. The secrecy around this trip has fueled speculation that it may be related to the U.S. government’s recent sanctions targeting China, prompting NVIDIA to maintain a low profile.


Supply chain sources suggest Huang’s public appearances aim to signal smooth production processes. However, the GB200 series shipment status is reportedly less optimistic. The GB200 NVL72 cabinet’s complex design poses significant challenges in heat dissipation due to the high power consumption of high-performance computing. While individual cabinet issues are mostly resolved, interconnecting multiple cabinets remains a significant hurdle.


The intricate setup involves numerous copper cables and harnesses, amplifying issues with heat dissipation and signal interference. This reinforces the need for optical solutions in the future. According to reports, NVIDIA plans to unveil its CPO switch at this year’s GTC conference, with TSMC producing the switch’s ASIC chips.


The supply chain believes that if trial production proceeds smoothly, NVIDIA could begin mass production in August. The CPO switch is expected to enable 115.2T signal transmission. TSMC has already prepared a 1.6T optical engine for clients, with 3.2T products under testing. However, achieving the required transmission speed for the CPO switch requires coupling 36 optical engines, a challenging task.


Industry insiders point out that semiconductor manufacturing involves nanoscale optical coupling. While single coupling yields exceed 90%, repeating the process 36 times amplifies the risk of failure. Any failures during the process can lead to the scrapping of CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) assemblies, resulting in significant losses.


The supply chain speculates that NVIDIA is under pressure due to capacity concerns. With 80,000 copper wires needed for cabinet interconnections, issues are emerging one after another. Optical communication appears to be the best solution at this stage. Meanwhile, it is reported that AWS is accelerating the adoption of its in-house chips, Trainium and Inferentia, to compete in the ASIC market, potentially challenging the dominance of general-purpose GPUs.
 
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