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Intel released third quarter revenue and earnings

I was so shocked about Pat's roadmap the his crazy confidence and optimistic . So I went watching his previous interview in VMware.


Thanks, nice interview, "build back better" "The swoosh". His view of the pandemic was spot on. No way this guy sleeps 8 hours. My guess would be 6 hours max!
 
Intel is a CPU company in the era that chiplets are the big sellers. Can Intel make a chiplet with marvell, nvidia, and other corporations ip like tsmc for apple, qualcomm, alibaba, microsoft, google, amd, mediatek, amazon?

This isn't the perlmutter era when Intel had the process lead, architecture just had to work and the public demanded cpus. The world's change and Intel needs different leadership. It's really worse than it looks because Intel is proped up by mobileye, desktops, A pandemic, and habana. Those things will go the other way.
 
Intel margins will have to be lower when they start using TSMC for full chips. My bet is that Intel will outsource > 50% of their wafers to TSMC starting in 2024.

Why buy a CPU from tsmc when you can get a chiplet from amd or mediatek with the needed nvidia architecture.
 
smart money lol. Their (foundry) efforts are paid by subsidies, US gov & IT sec sector needs locally controlled manufacturing badly. For the rest, maybe outsourcing to TSMC & Co can prevent Intels demise for some time. Chiplets & SoCs are going to eat into further into their mobile/desktops (profits). x86 HPC is shifting/spreading to custom architectures and general purpose ARM, later Risc-V. Gelsingers ambitious roadmap...god bless his courage. If they want to pull it off they would need to execute better than TSCM in the last 2 decades. What are the odds? I dont believe the real (unsubsidized) costs and long term benefits can put them back to grow. And I am certain we will rather see accelerated shrinking of their business until they can come up with something really new, unique, technological far ahead their competition, own IP and in extreme high demand.
 
smart money lol. Their (foundry) efforts are paid by subsidies, US gov & IT sec sector needs locally controlled manufacturing badly. For the rest, maybe outsourcing to TSMC & Co can prevent Intels demise for some time. Chiplets & SoCs are going to eat into further into their mobile/desktops (profits). x86 HPC is shifting/spreading to custom architectures and general purpose ARM, later Risc-V. Gelsingers ambitious roadmap...god bless his courage. If they want to pull it off they would need to execute better than TSCM in the last 2 decades. What are the odds? I dont believe the real (unsubsidized) costs and long term benefits can put them back to grow. And I am certain we will rather see accelerated shrinking of their business until they can come up with something really new, unique, technological far ahead their competition, own IP and in extreme high demand.
I actually really want them to shrink. Intel will execute only under strong competition. We saw that when AMD went dormant for a few years the market stagnated heavily.
 
The subsidies will reduce Intel's cost in the short term. Probably 5 years. After that, Intel, customers, and investors will realize Intel's cost is a lot higher than TSMC.

Subsidies can hurt companies' long term competitiveness because companies will not find their real cost.
This happened many times in the history.
 
The earning presentation can be viewed here:


Intel's attributed the 5% YoY drop in the notebook segment to industry wide component shortage. At the same time Intel's desktop related sales jumped 20% YoY. But desktop computer platform shares a lot components and/or factories with notebooks'. How can one could sells 20% more and one dropped 5% due to component shortage? Let's see what the upcoming AMD earning report will say.
I don't know if this is a smoke screen to cover up problems, but laptops have all miniaturized and prorietary components. Think about the fans / cooling parts, power suppliers, motherboards etc., it is a very different component landscape than for desktops, which use very standardized and exchangeable parts. I would not be surprised if this shortage was true. I needed to buy a new laptop and almost hit the BUY button last week at Dell, when I saw that the lead time is 2 months!! My company's IT confirmed that my work replacement will also be about 6 months late, they are fulfilling orders from Q1 and Q2 of 2021 right now. I canceled the order and got something off the shelf from MSI at Best Buy. Not my first choice, but a close second and good enough considering that my old one died and I needed something now.
 
I don't know if this is a smoke screen to cover up problems, but laptops have all miniaturized and prorietary components. Think about the fans / cooling parts, power suppliers, motherboards etc., it is a very different component landscape than for desktops, which use very standardized and exchangeable parts. I would not be surprised if this shortage was true. I needed to buy a new laptop and almost hit the BUY button last week at Dell, when I saw that the lead time is 2 months!! My company's IT confirmed that my work replacement will also be about 6 months late, they are fulfilling orders from Q1 and Q2 of 2021 right now. I canceled the order and got something off the shelf from MSI at Best Buy. Not my first choice, but a close second and good enough considering that my old one died and I needed something now.

I'm not asking if laptops' components are indeed in short supply. My question is why supply chain issues didn't hit desktop PCs hard enough and still allow it to grow 20% in Q3 2021, compare to laptops' 5% drop in the same period of time? In addition to the "components shortage", there should have more reasons behind it.

We may get some ideas tomorrow when AMD release their Q3 2021 earnings.
 
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