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Intel is attacking Apple

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Childish behavior for Intel. As the new CEO in my first 100 days I would fire the people involved in this negative campaign. My blog that will be published on Monday 10am PST will give Pat Gelsinger some expert advice. For the sake of Intel and the semiconductor ecosystem I hope he listens.
 

Portland

Active member
Pat Gelsinger is a poor choice. He says one thing and Intel does something else. He either will do something crazy to get himself fired or be fired for quarterly struggles but he'll be gone in a year give or take.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Pat Gelsinger is a poor choice. He says one thing and Intel does something else. He either will do something crazy to get himself fired or be fired for quarterly struggles but he'll be gone in a year give or take.

For me the Intel outsourcing plan will determine if Pat stays around. If he keeps all chips inside Intel then he will fail. If he outsources some of the chips and holds the manufacturing team’s feet to the competitive fire then I think he has a chance.
BK lasted five, BS lasted 2, PG will get 3-5, my opinion.
 

lilo777

Member
For me the Intel outsourcing plan will determine if Pat stays around. If he keeps all chips inside Intel then he will fail. If he outsources some of the chips and holds the manufacturing team’s feet to the competitive fire then I think he has a chance.
BK lasted five, BS lasted 2, PG will get 3-5, my opinion.
I think Pat's strategy must be flexible. If Intel resolves their process issues there won't be much need for Intel to outsource. There will still be some need especially for chips where Intel can benefit from the variety of pre-designed IP available from the foundries. But there are many more variables in this equation. For example, Intel may try flooding TSMC with orders to starve AMD (which may work only in limited set of circumstances).
 

Portland

Active member
Bk and bob swan didn't have the extremist evangelical cancel culture baggage. Intel works in a fine tolerance environment and sales are down. Some of the competition is technologically ahead.

I thought the calls of Intel being dead were overblown but people who knew or knew of him said he would be a problem.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
For example, Intel may try flooding TSMC with orders to starve AMD (which may work only in limited set of circumstances).

It doesn't work that way. Apple, AMD, and Intel have advance wafer agreements guaranteeing capacity, which is why TSMC upped their CAPEX for 3nm. There is no way Intel can take capacity from other AMD or Apple. TSMC also has room built in for overages but there could be shortages at 3nm like we have today. Depends on how good the forecasters are and the market conditions.

If I had to bet at the beginning of the pandemic I would have said flat semiconductor consumption but here we are at 6% growth in 2020 and double digit growth possibilities in 2021. And that is why I'm not a forecaster.
 

lilo777

Member
It doesn't work that way. Apple, AMD, and Intel have advance wafer agreements guaranteeing capacity, which is why TSMC upped their CAPEX for 3nm. There is no way Intel can take capacity from other AMD or Apple. TSMC also has room built in for overages but there could be shortages at 3nm like we have today. Depends on how good the forecasters are and the market conditions.

If I had to bet at the beginning of the pandemic I would have said flat semiconductor consumption but here we are at 6% growth in 2020 and double digit growth possibilities in 2021. And that is why I'm not a forecaster.
I have no insight into this but here are three relevant points:
* To "starve" AMD, Intel does not need to take existing allocations from them, they just need to "eat up" new TSMC capacity​
* Here is a link to an article I already posted in another thread about TSMC considering reducing wafer allocation to existing customers (in favor of new customers) in order to increase profit margins. If anything, this indicates that thy are not going to treat all customers equally (I do not think they do it now either)​
* Did not we read in ASML quarterly report/conference call that they we switching orders from one customer to another? If this is about Intel sending EUV machines towards TSMC, they would probably be first in line for new TSMC capacity (because otherwise TSMC would not have this new capacity).​
Regardless of whether Intel can do it or not, they first and foremost need to fix their process and design to be successful.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
I have no insight into this but here are three relevant points:
* To "starve" AMD, Intel does not need to take existing allocations from them, they just need to "eat up" new TSMC capacity​
* Here is a link to an article I already posted in another thread about TSMC considering reducing wafer allocation to existing customers (in favor of new customers) in order to increase profit margins. If anything, this indicates that thy are not going to treat all customers equally (I do not think they do it now either)​
* Did not we read in ASML quarterly report/conference call that they we switching orders from one customer to another? If this is about Intel sending EUV machines towards TSMC, they would probably be first in line for new TSMC capacity (because otherwise TSMC would not have this new capacity).​
Regardless of whether Intel can do it or not, they first and foremost need to fix their process and design to be successful.

I already shared my insight. I don't know what else to say. I did look at the Optocrypto website you referenced. That is not a credible source of semiconductor information, not even close.
 

lilo777

Member
I already shared my insight. I don't know what else to say. I did look at the Optocrypto website you referenced. That is not a credible source of semiconductor information, not even close.
I don’t have much to say either:). It's just a speculation on my part anyways. Let's wait and see if Pat can right the ship. Obviously, Intel has plenty of challenges but then who does not? As a technical person myself, I just find it refreshing to see a capable engineer as Intel CEO. I believe it's better for Intel this way but it may not be enough.
 

herbs88

New member
I don’t have much to say either:). It's just a speculation on my part anyways. Let's wait and see if Pat can right the ship. Obviously, Intel has plenty of challenges but then who does not? As a technical person myself, I just find it refreshing to see a capable engineer as Intel CEO. I believe it's better for Intel this way but it may not be enough.
I don’t understand why you chose to believe this optocrypto website over people who worked with TSMC. From my experience, TSMC prioritizes existing customers for a number of reasons, including the key thing in pure-play foundry business - trust from your customers.
 

lilo777

Member
I don’t understand why you chose to believe this optocrypto website over people who worked with TSMC. From my experience, TSMC prioritizes existing customers for a number of reasons, including the key thing in pure-play foundry business - trust from your customers.
I do not invest in any of these stocks so I do not need to trust to the source (which in this case is some East Asia based journalist Dan Nysted). I just thought this might be of interest to people here. Trust from the customers is becoming less important for TSMC as their process lead increases. They just cut sales allowances for their major clients which, reportedly, is something they never did before. Absence of competition might push TSMC to try squeeze their customers (capitalism in action).
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
I don’t understand why you chose to believe this optocrypto website over people who worked with TSMC. From my experience, TSMC prioritizes existing customers for a number of reasons, including the key thing in pure-play foundry business - trust from your customers.

Having worked with TSMC for almost 30 years I agree with you 100%. TSMC is very customer focused and keeps a level playing field. Sometimes is backfires on them. When Xilinx came to TSMC at 28nm they got equal access with long time customer Altera and Xilinx beat Altera to every node after that. Altera got pissed off and went to Intel. The rest is history.

A similar thing happened with QCOM when Apple went to TSMC. QCOM was TSMC customer #1 then Apple got most favored nation status over due to their exclusivity.

I'm wondering if AMD is going to have a similar problem. Not only will Intel have equal access they could have higher volumes and better pricing. If I was AMD I would be somewhat concerned having Intel on the same TSMC node.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Trust from the customers is becoming less important for TSMC as their process lead increases. They just cut sales allowances for their major clients which, reportedly, is something they never did before. Absence of competition might push TSMC to try squeeze their customers (capitalism in action).

Absolutely false.
 

Portland

Active member
Intel's 11 gen laptop semis are still elite but haven't made it to desktops yet? Some fabs can and some can't is my guess.

So much of Intel's incredible market share was due to the physical superiority of their semis node size, etch, .... . Now that it's largely gone Intel's market share will be more realistic.

Intel had a decline in sales as competitors apple, amd, mediatek increased. It's already happening.

To be honest I may buy an Intel 11 gen laptop but amd is so much more affordable.
 

jmlobert

New member
Childish behavior for Intel. As the new CEO in my first 100 days I would fire the people involved in this negative campaign. My blog that will be published on Monday 10am PST will give Pat Gelsinger some expert advice. For the sake of Intel and the semiconductor ecosystem I hope he listens.
He will probably have to fire himself. I would assume that a marketing campaign like this will go by the CEO... At Apple it would!
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
He will probably have to fire himself. I would assume that a marketing campaign like this will go by the CEO... At Apple it would!

I'm just wondering what the goal is. To get the Apple business back? Not gonna happen. Is Intel really worried about Macs versus PCs? Highly unlikely. This is just a sour grapes ad campaign in my opinion. Putting makeup on a bruised ego. Intel botched the Apple modem business and the CPU business. Produce the best silicon and you won't have to worry about losing customers.

Or is Intel trying to warn other customers what happens when you leave Intel? Seriously, what is the end game here?
 

lilo777

Member
I'm just wondering what the goal is. To get the Apple business back? Not gonna happen. Is Intel really worried about Macs versus PCs? Highly unlikely. This is just a sour grapes ad campaign in my opinion. Putting makeup on a bruised ego. Intel botched the Apple modem business and the CPU business. Produce the best silicon and you won't have to worry about losing customers.

Or is Intel trying to warn other customers what happens when you leave Intel? Seriously, what is the end game here?
Intel is not marketing the CPUs directly to consumers much (which makes sense since very few people buy them). On the other hand, Intel business/sales depend on the health of PC ecosystem. So, Intel is probably promoting PC ecosystem to end users. This campaign is reminiscent of the Apple's own Mac vs. PC campaign which was much nastier than what Intel is doing now and lasted a few years. All companies do it: Apple did it, Microsoft is doing it (Surface commercials), Samsung is doing it (a lot). Intel's ads are the least offensive of them all.
 
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