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If China takes Taiwan, the World Loses

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
If China takes Taiwan the world loses and so does China. The chances of TSM remaining functional are close to zero and the world will suffer. The damage inflicted by any invasion would be catastrophic and leave TSM nonfunctional for years. Unless they took Taiwan at lightning speed and with minimal damage, the fabs would be rendered useless. Just a few 747 flights could take away much talent and enough key pieces of complex equipment to render the fabs useless for years. It would also quickly make China a world pariah. The economic damage to the world of this conflict would be literally immeasurable and no one would win. The problem is deterrents exist only in the mind of the beholder and just the fact that China is expending staggering resources on its military and preparing for an all-out invasion is telling. An invasion will be a lose, lose situation for all involved, and with advanced semis being the keys to progress in just about everything, this is the knowledge equivalent of a nuclear war. All sides must realize no one will win if this conflict occurs. Semis have become the key resource and tools for solving the numerous challenges mankind faces on almost every front from a vastly overpopulated world. I hope leaders on all sides can direct the world's resources to the real challenges before us before we have a dead planet in which everyone loses. Petty conflicts need to be put aside, and compared to the survival of the human race, this is a petty conflict for all sides to waste resources on. Semis are now the key to leveraging our knowledge to deal with the challenges to keep our planet livable.
 

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
You seem somewhat obsessed with this notion that China is going to invade and takeover Taiwan.
China has made absolutely no secret they want Taiwan reunified with China and has been taking many concrete and political actions to show it means business. I'm not obsessed, just observant and realistic. If I'm wrong, show me something to the contrary.
 

PBealo

New member
I believe that even a lightning victory would see the advanced fabs destroyed, if not as collateral damage by the Chinese, then directly by US/Japan/Korea. There is no way they would allow China access to advanced technology through the invasion route.

When the term "reunited" is used it should be realized that China invaded and took Formosa in 1644, later losing it to Japan. Prior to that it was a Dutch island and prior to that was governed locally by the Formosans themselves. So China really has no legitimate claim to the island.
 

dwisehart

New member
A good friend moved his family from Hong Kong to Taiwan in the past 18 months (his in-laws are Taiwanese but he, his wife, and children are US citizens). They moved specifically because of what the mainland government was doing to Hong Kong, especially in the schools where his wife was a college professor and his children are just about to start primary education. His view is that despite all of the saber rattling, so long as Taiwan does not push for independence, and mainland China saves face in all policy conflicts with Taiwan--such as over the vaccine--that it is unlikely for China to invade. They too enjoy the current impasse where Taiwan is nominally part of the mainland but China is not being punished or attacked by the rest of the world for its handling of Taiwan. He further says the mainland knows the Taiwanese would likely fight a gorilla war against any invasion, which largely destroy the local economy and slow international trade and tourism as it has in Hong Kong.
 

horace

New member
Whether China invade Taiwan or not does not depend on the benefits to the world nor the benefits to China. It only depends on one and only one thing, the benefits to President Xi. If invade Taiwan is the way for Xi to stay in power, then he will do it.
 
If China takes Taiwan the world loses and so does China. The chances of TSM remaining functional are close to zero and the world will suffer.

When–when–China reunites with Taiwan, it will do so non-violently, with Taiwanese assent comparable to Hong Kong's assent to its reassimilation.

If a show of force is required it will look like this:

Russia's Pacific and Asian Fleets will put to sea, its airforce will aggressively patrol its skies, and three army armored divisions will move to the Western front.

China will announce that Taiwan is now part of the PRC, but for now, the only change will be that all movement of goods and services in and out of Taiwan must pass through China's departments of Customs and Immigration.

To facilitate this, Taiwan's air and ocean limits are now China's and the Taiwan Strait is now domestic water.

The PLAN's 80 missile patrol boats will mark the new marine borders.

The PLAAF's fifth gen fighters, will provide air cover for them.

The PLA's missiles (far more powerful than America's) would ensure compliance.

Business as usual, in other words.

What's not to like?
 
...a sourcing manager visited 2 companies, first a Taiwanese company in China. What will it cost? Taiwan company response: Here is the cost of material, here is the yield, here is capex, here is out price. China company response: How about $10 less than what you are paying? Yes, China's assault on capitalism is to use monopolistic power to crush economically the competition, peacefully, because the more that China can control the more it will control--killing people and sweeping their remnants under the rugs of reform camps. So somehow, the discussion here is somehow a fantasy of that great victory when, instead of mourning the loss of a free democracy, instead the sole value of Taiwan is seen as its store of EUV steppers. God-free Robbers dream of this--not because Taiwan itself is necessary, not that another 25 million people on a small island means any gain to China. Only because it is an ego-fantasy of domination, and even worse--a fantasy of retribution against the rest of the world that paid for each bullet every time we bought an iPhone.
And this fantasy is evil, and the evil is real. And the fantasy is only patiently waiting for the moment where the actions can be swept away like the slaughter at Tian An Men and the rest of the world dare not stare at the slaughter. Any belief that somehow moving semiconductor production to Arizona changes the morality in this is just as wrong. The CCP will only admit to Tian-An Men they day they simply don't care anymore, not because of regret.
 

slin

New member
...a sourcing manager visited 2 companies, first a Taiwanese company in China. What will it cost? Taiwan company response: Here is the cost of material, here is the yield, here is capex, here is out price. China company response: How about $10 less than what you are paying? Yes, China's assault on capitalism is to use monopolistic power to crush economically the competition, peacefully, because the more that China can control the more it will control--killing people and sweeping their remnants under the rugs of reform camps. So somehow, the discussion here is somehow a fantasy of that great victory when, instead of mourning the loss of a free democracy, instead the sole value of Taiwan is seen as its store of EUV steppers. God-free Robbers dream of this--not because Taiwan itself is necessary, not that another 25 million people on a small island means any gain to China. Only because it is an ego-fantasy of domination, and even worse--a fantasy of retribution against the rest of the world that paid for each bullet every time we bought an iPhone.
And this fantasy is evil, and the evil is real. And the fantasy is only patiently waiting for the moment where the actions can be swept away like the slaughter at Tian An Men and the rest of the world dare not stare at the slaughter. Any belief that somehow moving semiconductor production to Arizona changes the morality in this is just as wrong. The CCP will only admit to Tian-An Men they day they simply don't care anymore, not because of regret.
That's exactly how Huawei beat out Ericsson and Nokia in the installation of 5G networks around the world. The price they bid on those contracts were ridiculous low for other fair market competitors to beat - but they get you back on backdoor trojans and spywares. I heard some african and european countries who went with chinese telecom equipments ended up noticing that ccp somehow always knows their next moves...
 
...a sourcing manager visited 2 companies, first a Taiwanese company in China. What will it cost? Taiwan company response: Here is the cost of material, here is the yield, here is capex, here is out price. China company response: How about $10 less than what you are paying? Yes, China's assault on capitalism is to use monopolistic power to crush economically the competition, peacefully, because the more that China can control the more it will control--killing people and sweeping their remnants under the rugs of reform camps. So somehow, the discussion here is somehow a fantasy of that great victory when, instead of mourning the loss of a free democracy, instead the sole value of Taiwan is seen as its store of EUV steppers. God-free Robbers dream of this--not because Taiwan itself is necessary, not that another 25 million people on a small island means any gain to China. Only because it is an ego-fantasy of domination, and even worse--a fantasy of retribution against the rest of the world that paid for each bullet every time we bought an iPhone.
And this fantasy is evil, and the evil is real. And the fantasy is only patiently waiting for the moment where the actions can be swept away like the slaughter at Tian An Men and the rest of the world dare not stare at the slaughter. Any belief that somehow moving semiconductor production to Arizona changes the morality in this is just as wrong. The CCP will only admit to Tian-An Men they day they simply don't care anymore, not because of regret.
The sourcing manager story is fictional. If there's one thing that China's stats tell us is that they're too smart to quote blind.
That's exactly how Huawei beat out Ericsson and Nokia in the installation of 5G networks around the world. The price they bid on those contracts were ridiculous low for other fair market competitors to beat - but they get you back on backdoor trojans and spywares. I heard some african and european countries who went with chinese telecom equipments ended up noticing that ccp somehow always knows their next moves...
So the secret of Huawei's immense profitability is selling products for less than they cost? Don't be silly.
 

slin

New member
The sourcing manager story is fictional. If there's one thing that China's stats tell us is that they're too smart to quote blind.

So the secret of Huawei's immense profitability is selling products for less than they cost? Don't be silly.
Why is it silly? Huawei is founded by former chinese military and heavily backed by the Government and China's state bank and have a strong connection. They have a vast domestic market and telecom equipment isn't the only thing they sell - they used to sell more smartphones than Apple. At the same time they were accused of several intellectual property thefts, so it's not hard to be profitable when you STEAL. Also their chief financial officer is facing extradition to the U.S. China spies on their own people it's not a surprise for them to be snooping on foreign govt entities with their equipments.
 
Why is it silly? Huawei is founded by former chinese military and heavily backed by the Government and China's state bank and have a strong connection. They have a vast domestic market and telecom equipment isn't the only thing they sell - they used to sell more smartphones than Apple. At the same time they were accused of several intellectual property thefts, so it's not hard to be profitable when you STEAL. Also their chief financial officer is facing extradition to the U.S. China spies on their own people it's not a surprise for them to be snooping on foreign govt entities with their equipments.
All American corporations have strong ties to the US military. All Chinese men are 'former military', since they do national service. Huawei's founder was in the PLA's fabrics development R&D center. They have never stolen anyone's IP. Their CFO was kidnapped and will either be released or proven innocent. The US spies on its own people much, much more than the Chinese government spies on its people–because Americans distrust their government far more than the Chinese people distrust theirs. That's why the US has imprisoned 10x more people Per Capita than China.
 

Barnsley

New member
All American corporations have strong ties to the US military. All Chinese men are 'former military', since they do national service. Huawei's founder was in the PLA's fabrics development R&D center. They have never stolen anyone's IP. Their CFO was kidnapped and will either be released or proven innocent. The US spies on its own people much, much more than the Chinese government spies on its people–because Americans distrust their government far more than the Chinese people distrust theirs. That's why the US has imprisoned 10x more people Per Capita than China.
Are you the Godfree Roberts , this is pretty cool.
I had heard the name but in the world of the Internet who knows who is who online.

I must say your webcrawler that searches for China related topics is pretty impressive to bring you here as I cant imagine what you are putting into a search engine to end up on this site
 

Jert

Member
I guess Godfree wasnt here to give any analysis on the impact on Semiconductors.

Definitely he wasn't. I hope the forum admin recognizes that and kick him out.

If China does try to seize Taiwan, let's say tomorrow, that would mean the end of supply of logic 5/3nm and vast majority of the 7nm currently being made for various devices. That would mean globally the most advanced node resets to 7nm, because Samsung, Intel (somewhat) and GF (potentially) can supply 7nm, albeit there will be a time delay in building capacities and additional development needed (especially for GF). Memory sector not much impacted. So, I guess that would not be the end of the world for tech, just significant setback by a few years until everyone outside of Taiwan catches up, as long as the equipment and materials sectors stay intact such as ASML.
 

count

Active member
All American corporations have strong ties to the US military. All Chinese men are 'former military', since they do national service. Huawei's founder was in the PLA's fabrics development R&D center. They have never stolen anyone's IP. Their CFO was kidnapped and will either be released or proven innocent. The US spies on its own people much, much more than the Chinese government spies on its people–because Americans distrust their government far more than the Chinese people distrust theirs. That's why the US has imprisoned 10x more people Per Capita than China.
Regardless of what you think of Huawei, the CFO wasn't kidnapped. The company sold goods to Iran in violation of western sanctions, the CFO signed off on it while living in a western country, which was a felony in her country of residence. If I go to China and commit a crime against the Chinese government, I could expect the same treatment.
 

slin

New member
All American corporations have strong ties to the US military. All Chinese men are 'former military', since they do national service. Huawei's founder was in the PLA's fabrics development R&D center. They have never stolen anyone's IP. Their CFO was kidnapped and will either be released or proven innocent. The US spies on its own people much, much more than the Chinese government spies on its people–because Americans distrust their government far more than the Chinese people distrust theirs. That's why the US has imprisoned 10x more people Per Capita than China.
Typical response from a commie. When they are accused of something, they hit back every point with disinformation. Just like when U.S. accused China of spreading Wuhan virus (aka Corona Virus), they claimed an american military personnel brought the virus to China. "They have never stolen anyone's IP" - haha you're so funny.
 
Typical response from a commie. When they are accused of something, they hit back every point with disinformation. Just like when U.S. accused China of spreading Wuhan virus (aka Corona Virus), they claimed an american military personnel brought the virus to China. "They have never stolen anyone's IP" - haha you're so funny.
CDC figures show that Covid-19 must have been in the US longbefore it was in China, agreeing with findings in Italy, Spain, and France. Tests of archived Red Cross blood samples taken in the US from December 13, 2019, revealed high levels of antibodies nationwide for the Covid-19 virus.

The samples were taken more than two weeks before the December 31 official confirmation of the outbreak in Wuhan and a month earlier than the first confirmed case of Covid-19 in the US on January 19.

"Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations to identify SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies: December 2019-January 2020”. Sridhar V Basavaraju, MD, et al. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
 
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