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IDC Survey Finds the Majority of Senior Business Executives Expect a Recession

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
September 23, 2022 08:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time
NEEDHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A new International Data Corporation (IDC) survey of senior business executives from around the world found that 59% believe there will be a recession in the coming year. Moreover, nearly 30% of those who believe a recession will occur also believe that we are currently in a recession with another 26% expecting a recession to begin in the second half of 2022.

A new IDC survey of senior business executives from around the world found that 59% believe there will be a recession in the coming year.
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"Given the many factors contributing to slower growth – persistent inflation, rising interest rates, ongoing supply chain issues, a potential energy crisis in Europe, and the conflict in Ukraine – it's not surprising that the majority of executives believe a recession is imminent," said Tony Olvet, group vice president, Worldwide C-Suite and Canadian Future Enterprise Research at IDC. "CEOs in particular need to guide their organizations through periods of economic slowdown without losing sight of long-term growth objectives, and for the vast majority of CEOs that requires a digital-first strategy."

While the majority of executives in each of the geographic regions surveyed felt that a recession is likely in the next 12 months, the strongest response came from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) where nearly three quarters of C-suite respondents expect a recession in the coming year. However, a similar share of EMEA executives believe the recession won't begin until the first half of 2023. In comparison, nearly half of North American respondents believe we are already in a recession while 44% of Asia/Pacific respondents believe the recession will begin in the second half of 2022.

In terms of duration, two thirds of the respondents overall believe the recession will last one year or longer. While a large majority of executives in both EMEA and Asia/Pacific believe this will be the case, nearly 60% of North America executives believe the recession may last just two or three quarters.

Despite their expectations of a recession, more than one third of the survey respondents overall predicted that they will increase their IT budgets during this time. EMEA respondents had the most bullish outlook for IT budgets with nearly two thirds expecting budget increases compared to about a quarter of respondents in North America and Asia/Pacific.

"In today’s macroeconomic environment, there are indicators of slow growth and sentiments from business executives that express concern for a potential recession. No one can confidently predict the future, but everyone can learn from the past," added Teodora Siman, research manager, C-Suite Tech Agenda at IDC. "As recently as 2020, we saw organizations that invested in technology and digital business models emerge from the pandemic ahead of their competitors. Investing in technology before an economic downturn can help uncover inefficiencies in processes and increase business agility, preparing an organization to handle new risks in the market."
The IDC report, IDC's Worldwide C-Suite Survey 2022 Recession Sentiments (Doc #US48566222), summarizes the results of IDC's 2022 C-Suite Survey. The analysis is done on questions regarding a potential recession and is based on the full international set of data including 858 respondents (311 from North America, 300 EMEA, and 247 Asia/Pacific). This report specifically examines the C-Suite recession sentiments on the likelihood, timing, duration, and impact to IT budgets.

About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.

Contacts​

Michael Shirer
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press@idc.com
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Wow, only 59% believe a recession is coming?

2023 will definitely be a challenging year but I don't think the semiconductor industry will be hit as hard as some say and I think it will be short lived. As much as I like Malcom Penn (Future Horizons) his latest comments are problematic for me. My guess is that the semiconductor industry will be back to single digit growth in 2023 like many years before.

Military/Defense spending will surge given the conflict in Ukraine and that surge may last for years due to the fear, uncertainty and doubt that is being spread around the world. Like everything else, the semiconductor content in defense budgets is increasing dramatically.

PC and phone sales may be down but we are just now seeing the AI surge start. AI will take the semiconductor industry driver seat just like PCs and smartphones did before starting with the datacenters then moving to every edge Imaginable.

COVID is the big swing for me. Hopefully we can normalize it. If not the recession could stretch through 2023, just my opinion of course.

Semiconductor MArket Forecast 2022.jpg
 
Last edited:

hist78

Well-known member
Wow, only 59% believe a recession is coming?

2023 will definitely be a challenging year but I don't think the semiconductor industry will be hit as hard as some say and I think it will be short lived. As much as I like Malcom Penn (Future Horizons) his latest comments are problematic for me. My guess is that the semiconductor industry will be back to single digit growth in 2023 like many years before.

Military/Defense spending will surge given the conflict in Ukraine and that surge may last for years due to the fear, uncertainty and doubt that is being spread around the world. Like everything else, the semiconductor content in defense budgets is increasing dramatically.

PC and phone sales may be down but we are just now seeing the AI surge start. AI will take the semiconductor industry driver seat just like PCs and smartphones did before starting with the datacenters then moving to every edge. Imaginable.

COVID is the big swing for me. Hopefully we can normalize it in 2023. If not the recession could stretch through 2023, just my opinion of course.

View attachment 911

According to IDC, this particular report collected responses from 858 participants around the world. I have doubts about the effectiveness from this relatively small sample size and the industry distribution. Furthermore, I don't understand why IDC decided to skip South and Central America but included Africa in the survey while Central and South America have bigger GDP than Africa.

"This IDC Survey highlights the results of IDC's 2022 C-Suite Survey. This analysis is done on questions regarding a potential recession and is based on the full international set of data including 858 respondents. This document includes 311 respondents from North America, 300 EMEA, and 247 Asia/Pacific. This document examines the C-Suite recession sentiments on the likelihood, timing, duration, and impact to IT budgets. Technology vendors can use this information to build an effective strategy while navigating the storms of disruption."
 
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