Geopolitical "expert", Peter Zeihan, and the semiconductor industry

[soAsian]

Good Evening from Taipei,

TSMC’s first Arizona chips are now in production, and Apple is ready to be the first cab off the rank with mobile processors made using the foundry’s 5nm process.

Apple’s A16 SoC, which first debuted two years ago in the iPhone 14 Pro, is currently being manufactured at Phase 1 of TSMC’s Fab 21 in Arizona in small, but significant, numbers, my sources tell me. Volume will ramp up considerably when the second stage of the Phase 1 fab is completed and production is underway, putting the Arizona project on track to hit its target for production in the first-half of 2025.

Apple Mobile Processors Are Now Made in the USA. By TSMC

[Exclusive] The iPhone maker is ready to be the first client of TSMC's new Arizona fab. Finally, the iPhone will boast a processor that's Made in America

timculpan.substack.com

This video suggests that Taiwan is delaying the construction of TSMC's Arizona plant. Yet, an article by Tim Culpan reports that Apple has placed orders for TSMC in the US.

 

[hist78]

Good Evening from Taipei,

TSMC’s first Arizona chips are now in production, and Apple is ready to be the first cab off the rank with mobile processors made using the foundry’s 5nm process.

Apple’s A16 SoC, which first debuted two years ago in the iPhone 14 Pro, is currently being manufactured at Phase 1 of TSMC’s Fab 21 in Arizona in small, but significant, numbers, my sources tell me. Volume will ramp up considerably when the second stage of the Phase 1 fab is completed and production is underway, putting the Arizona project on track to hit its target for production in the first-half of 2025.

Apple Mobile Processors Are Now Made in the USA. By TSMC

[Exclusive] The iPhone maker is ready to be the first client of TSMC's new Arizona fab. Finally, the iPhone will boast a processor that's Made in America

timculpan.substack.com

This video suggests that Taiwan is delaying the construction of TSMC's Arizona plant. Yet, an article by Tim Culpan reports that Apple has placed orders for TSMC in the US.

Has this guy been staying in the mountains too long, so he doesn’t get news updates often? Several things he mentioned are incorrect, yet funny.

 

[MKWVentures]

I have seen his video before.... not well informed IMO

good info from @soAsian , thanks

Anything can change but I am expecting TSMC AZ plant to be successful and be a major site in the US.

 

[tooLongInEDA]

Has this guy been staying in the mountains too long, so he doesn’t get news updates often? Several things he mentioned are incorrect, yet funny.

He's inconsistent in his output. The main problem is that he states everything as though it's a certainty. He doesn't deal in probabilities or any of the fuzziness and uncertainty of real life. I find his view of the UK rather strange. Sometimes useful (geopolitics, oil, long term trends), but no real understanding or insight into technology or semis (quite frankly he's lost in Dunning-Krugerland on semis).

 

[hist78]

He's inconsistent in his output. The main problem is that he states everything as though it's a certainty. He doesn't deal in probabilities or any of the fuzziness and uncertainty of real life. I find his view of the UK rather strange. Sometimes useful (geopolitics, oil, long term trends), but no real understanding or insight into technology or semis (quite frankly he's lost in Dunning-Krugerland on semis).

He doesn't pay attention to the current status of Intel Ohio and TSMC Arizona. He doesn't understand that for TSMC Arizona fab, the $10+ billion already spent, 2000 employees hired or relocated, and their families are serious business, not a dog and pony show.

 

[Paul2]

The part about "1000 inputs" is true, and tells he knows how to use google.com.

For example, ultrapure, semicon grade isopropyl, available from 2 companies worldwide. One in Japan, one in Taiwan.

How do you make ultrapure isopropyl? You need hyperpure potassium hydroxide, and the story repeats like that a dozen times.

 

[Xebec]

The part about "1000 inputs" is true, and tells he knows how to use google.com.

For example, ultrapure, semicon grade isopropyl, available from 2 companies worldwide. One in Japan, one in Taiwan.

How do you make ultrapure isopropyl? You need hyperpure potassium hydroxide, and the story repeats like that a dozen times.

I think even though he got a lot of things wrong, just informing the public/his viewers on how complex the semiconductor chain is (i.e. it’s really dependent on safe global trade) is a good message, given US politics are signaling “we will become self sufficient soon”.

 

[tooLongInEDA]

I think even though he got a lot of things wrong, just informing the public/his viewers on how complex the semiconductor chain is (i.e. it’s really dependent on safe global trade) is a good message, given US politics are signaling “we will become self sufficient soon”.

No one will be self sufficient now. Not the US. Not China. The supply chains and technologies are just too complex to completely rebuild from scratch. But people keep claiming this is possible.