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Future Horizons Annual Semiconductor Industry Update (Video Link)

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
The video link has now been published. The presentation is under an hour, with Q&A it goes beyond that. Malcolm and I are friends and while we don't always agree I value his research. The approach he takes is very different than most but quite valuable. He tracks the four horsemen of the apocalypse: Economy, Unit Shipments, ASPs, and Fab Capacity. Malcolm is also very honest about his predictions which I truly appreciate. Other analysts get one out of ten right and the one is all you hear about. :ROFLMAO:

Last year Malcolm's forecast was 16% growth for the semiconductor industry which matched what TSMC was saying so we were in agreement. We were a bit low, actual semiconductor revenue growth will be closer to 20%. What we missed was the AI ASPs which were through the roof.

According to Malcolm in 2025 the semiconductor industry will see a decline to 15%, still respectable growth. The problem is unit sales is in decline and that is a very bad sign. The overall economy and geopolitics could also be a factor in a further decline.

I just recorded a podcast with Wally Rhines discussing EDA growth last year which is also on the decline. The Q3 2024 numbers were single digit (8.8%) growth which is closer to normal for the EDA industry. For the last few quarters the EDA industry has grown double digits which is crazy good. Asia Pacific did not do well which is a bad sign. China decreased 4.4%, all in EDA tools rather than IP. Japan was minus 3.5%. But Korea was the big drag on EDA revenue growth this time with an overall decrease of 30.5%. India at 63.5% growth and Taiwan at 20.1% growth helped to offset the weakness in China and Korea. Go Taiwan and India!

Here is the Malcom video, definitely worth the watch:

 
So it's not only me seeing it. The cost of computing performance, I think, has went up for the first time in decades with the new generation chips. They have started to grow in price across the board.
 
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