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First EUV light marks key milestone for production of Intel 4 in Europe

To be clear, metal 4 is also multi-patterned, correct?
Is spacing significantly larger starting on metal 5?
What is M0? Are they routable contact layers to diffusions and the gate?
 
To be clear, metal 4 is also multi-patterned, correct?
Is spacing significantly larger starting on metal 5?
What is M0? Are they routable contact layers to diffusions and the gate?
1672078404082.png

I don't know which layers moved to EUV. If I had to guess Fin patterning and M0-2, but I could be (and probably am) wrong. M0 are just the contacts. I may be misunderstanding what you mean by routable, but no they aren't routable. They are basically just vias that connect M1 to the devices.
 
Not necessarily. D1 has been using a large number of EUV tools for a while now. Just on a quick google map search D1 also appears to have more cleanroom space than Ireland (especially when one considers that Ireland also needs to continue making legacy processes). The former 7nm was so heavily delayed at this point that I would have to assume they have worked out many of the worst issues. Combine this with maintenance and many operations tasks being managed by ASML staff, and I am guessing that Intel is more like 2 years behind TSMC in EUV experience. For me it is hard to believe that across the like 3 years of delays and year of risk starts that Intel’s EUV competence is worse than TSMC in the 7nm era when one considers that N7+ was just one layer. Intel is further aided by intel 4/3 not making extensive use of EUV multi patterning.

The wider world will get a better picture during the second half of 2023 when we can see how many new laptops are using meteorlake. Of course we won’t know what the theoretical tool capabilities are at D1, but if Intel is really more than 4-5 years behind in EUV expertise then we would most definitely see it reflected in meteorlake stock.
"when one considers that N7+ was just one layer" TSMC 7+ is 5 EUV layers
 
Bonus round for you Dan:

1) Does a foundry need to have the same volume and customer breadth as TSMC to be considered a "success" or "viable competitor"? Or would you say that something like Samsung in the 14nm era was a "viable competitor", even if their customer pool was smaller than TSMC.

I don't think one process makes you a viable contender in the foundry business. It is a marathon not a sprint. No matter what you think IDM foundries will never have the level of collaboration that a pure-play foundry does. TSMC will never compete with customers but you never know with IDMs. One day they may not, another day they may, you cannot bet your whole business on that type of partnership. The whole concept of frenemies and co-opetition is a fools errand. TSMC will never trust Intel nor will Apple ever trust Samsung like Apple, AMD, and others trust TSMC.

So, in my eyes there are pure-play foundries (TSMC, UMC, SMIC, GF, etc....) and IDM foundries (Intel, Samsung), same zoo, different animals.

2) Is there any amount of success on the technological front that can lead to a sufficiently healthy ecosystem? Samsung is technically going to be the first to HNS, with TSMC likely being the last member of the big three to reach HVM. Assuming intel and Samsung put their money where there mouth is and don't choke and fall behind TSMC soon thereafter (not guaranteed but roll with me here), is it possible for one or both of these foundries to attract enough customers to be profitable? Or do you think that it doesn't matter how far behind TSMC is, they will always have the entirety of everybody (minus Qualcomm and trailing edge MediaTek/NVIDIA)'s business?

Profitable yes, but not with IDM or TSMC type of margins, more like UMC and GF.

3) While I highly doubt the following scenario is even possible; what if in 10 years we see an intel or a Samsung consistently have a lead that is similar to what intel experienced during the 2000s thru mid 2010s. Even in this fantasy land scenario I don't see TSMC losing all of their customers. But would the foundry that did do this see a massive surge in popularity? Looking back a few years even the mighty Apple put aside their blood feud/IP theft concerns with Samsung when N16 was late. While I doubt Apple would change sides for say 18A or 2GAE even if they did exactly what was advertised and came out well before N2. Would this be the case if the IDMs were on 10A or 1.0GAE while TSMC only had N1.4? What about people who don't get the same VIP treatment as Apple? In this hypothetical situation I doubt the IDMs would burry TSMC, but it is also hard to believe that the current market shares would stay unchanged.

Process isn't everything for foundries. Ecosystem is far more important and the ability to deliver what you promise. Customer silicon is they key benchmark here not the PPA nonsense that the media rehashes. Remember, this is not the first time Intel has been in the foundry business and the pervious times they had a process advantage.

Apple had no choice with 14nm, TSMC did not deliver the wafer capacity Apple required. It was a good lesson for all and definitely changed the face of the foundry business.

I guess I ask this because I wonder if there is even a point? Does better technology even matter? Does investing in a foundry ecosystem matter? Is the best course of action for these IDMs to make the best node for their product, and throw out their PDKs in case a Qualcomm wants to help amortize your costs by playing chicken with TSMC? Are SFS and IFS just wastes of time/distractions that could be better spent being fast followers or innovators for the things that matter to their own logic product stacks?

Nobody likes monopolies which is why there will always be a NOT TSMC market. Just like AMD used to be the NOT Intel supplier. How long was AMD on life support? Now AMD has added BETTER THAN Intel market share. Lisa Su has been with AMD for 10+ years? IFS and SFS have the same opportunity but it will take time. Does Pat have 10 years in him? Samsung Foundry changes executives like socks so the clock keeps getting reset.

Just my opinion of course...
 
Now AMD has added BETTER THAN Intel market share.
I assume you meant AMD has a higher market capitalization than Intel, which it did for a while. As of this posting that's not the case, but since AMD's is $104B and Intel's $107B, Intel's is still pathetic compared to their revenue advantage.

In market share the two companies aren't even close. In x86 CPUs it's about 70/30 in favor of Intel.
 
Thanks for answering that long string of questions Dan. When it comes to the wider fabless ecosystem you are the man. With all of the articles about people's add-ins for TSMC design flows I was curious if all of the work SFS and IFS were putting in to catch up to TSMC was for naught (at least for the foundry side). Obviously the pure-play model is a nice selling point. Where I was unsure is if getting a strong enough IP/design ecosystem was even possible, or if we would see a similar issue to Microsoft trying to cut into the mobile phone OS market (nobody bothering to support it resulting in nobody using it). Technical prowess, cadence, and PDKs are purely within Samsung and Intel's power to improve. Ecosystem less so. Based on your answers it seems that the IDM foundries can be reasonably successful if they can catch up on the things that are in their control. In the process of improving those items the ecosystem will slowly build around them, and with that they can overtime grow into being healthy competitors (although obviously never bigger than TSMC).

When you say customer silicon is the most important benchmark, could you elaborate? Apple is very clearly the best at squeezing every drop out of every mm of TSMC silicon. Does that mean that if a 28nm A series SOC beats a 22nm atom SOC that TSMC has the better process? Or do you more so mean that theoretical PPA is meaningless compared to what is easily achievable with the process and PDKs (ie it doesn't matter if in theory intel 14nm smokes N16, only intel is capable of designing a chip with those dumpster fire PDKs). I don't know if I'd agree with the first option since they aren't really like for like comparisons, but the second option makes complete sense to me.
 
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I assume you meant AMD has a higher market capitalization than Intel, which it did for a while. As of this posting that's not the case, but since AMD's is $104B and Intel's $107B, Intel's is still pathetic compared to their revenue advantage.

In market share the two companies aren't even close. In x86 CPUs it's about 70/30 in favor of Intel.
No, better silicon. What was AMD’s market share 10 years ago? Single digits? That was the NOT Intel market share. Now AMD has “our silicon is better” market share.
 
When you say customer silicon is the most important benchmark, could you elaborate? Apple is very clearly the best at squeezing every drop out of every mm of TSMC silicon. Does that mean that if a 28nm A series SOC beats a 22nm atom SOC that TSMC has the better process? Or do you more so mean that theoretical PPA is meaningless compared to what is easily achievable with the process and PDKs (ie it doesn't matter if in theory intel 14nm smokes N16, only intel is capable of designing a chip with those dumpster fire PDKs). I don't know if I'd agree with the first option since they aren't really like for like comparisons, but the second option makes complete sense to me.

Big customers do a lot of chips so they know how the process reacts to their designs thus the PPA marketing claims are largely ignored. Process is important but design is key and that is why PDKs are critical. TSMC has the best PDKs because of experience. 30+ years making thousands of PDKs for thousands of customers. When TSMC says the trusted foundry the PDKs are a big part of that trust.

New chip design companies are in a different position of course. They do not have a silicon track record but their newly hired chip employees do and you can bet that experience is mostly with TSMC. New chip design companies (fabless systems companies for example) also depend more heavily on the ecosystem and that brings them to TSMC. So PPA numbers will not be the first thought of these new customers. The prevailing thought will be "first time working silicon so I can keep my job".
 
Interesting discussion, lots of threads: Wither Samsung, pure-play vs. IDM foundry, first spin trust, whether Samsung even has an ecosystem.

With Samsung, there are plans to build a lot of fabs in the US for Foundry, on spec (ie no firm customers). So that’s a risk, but part of the plan to truly go toe-to-toe with TSMC, matching leading-edge capa for capa. No one has ever challenged TSMC like this before, and because of that, I think TSMC clearly has the advantage, but it’s an old advantage.

It’s been pointed out that the dot com bubble produced a glut of fiber capa that lasted for a decade after Worldcom disappeared amid scandal. The company disappeared but the fiber was still lit, and helped launch Facebook and Google and so on with cheap internet service. Samsung (or Intel) could end up like Worldcom, over-building capa that kills them, but spreads cheap silicon capa to the masses.

My guess is if Samsung’s challenging TSMC fails, those fabs being built will have plan B (memory) or plan C (new applications). And some executives will be fired. But it won’t end Samsung. Intel, on the other hand, has bigger challenges, and their new fabs pretty much have to succeed to live. That could be some good motivation or a hopeless hail Mary.
 
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