Bonus round for you Dan:
1) Does a foundry need to have the same volume and customer breadth as TSMC to be considered a "success" or "viable competitor"? Or would you say that something like Samsung in the 14nm era was a "viable competitor", even if their customer pool was smaller than TSMC.
I don't think one process makes you a viable contender in the foundry business. It is a marathon not a sprint. No matter what you think IDM foundries will never have the level of collaboration that a pure-play foundry does. TSMC will never compete with customers but you never know with IDMs. One day they may not, another day they may, you cannot bet your whole business on that type of partnership. The whole concept of frenemies and co-opetition is a fools errand. TSMC will never trust Intel nor will Apple ever trust Samsung like Apple, AMD, and others trust TSMC.
So, in my eyes there are pure-play foundries (TSMC, UMC, SMIC, GF, etc....) and IDM foundries (Intel, Samsung), same zoo, different animals.
2) Is there any amount of success on the technological front that can lead to a sufficiently healthy ecosystem? Samsung is technically going to be the first to HNS, with TSMC likely being the last member of the big three to reach HVM. Assuming intel and Samsung put their money where there mouth is and don't choke and fall behind TSMC soon thereafter (not guaranteed but roll with me here), is it possible for one or both of these foundries to attract enough customers to be profitable? Or do you think that it doesn't matter how far behind TSMC is, they will always have the entirety of everybody (minus Qualcomm and trailing edge MediaTek/NVIDIA)'s business?
Profitable yes, but not with IDM or TSMC type of margins, more like UMC and GF.
3) While I highly doubt the following scenario is even possible; what if in 10 years we see an intel or a Samsung consistently have a lead that is similar to what intel experienced during the 2000s thru mid 2010s. Even in this fantasy land scenario I don't see TSMC losing all of their customers. But would the foundry that did do this see a massive surge in popularity? Looking back a few years even the mighty Apple put aside their blood feud/IP theft concerns with Samsung when N16 was late. While I doubt Apple would change sides for say 18A or 2GAE even if they did exactly what was advertised and came out well before N2. Would this be the case if the IDMs were on 10A or 1.0GAE while TSMC only had N1.4? What about people who don't get the same VIP treatment as Apple? In this hypothetical situation I doubt the IDMs would burry TSMC, but it is also hard to believe that the current market shares would stay unchanged.
Process isn't everything for foundries. Ecosystem is far more important and the ability to deliver what you promise. Customer silicon is they key benchmark here not the PPA nonsense that the media rehashes. Remember, this is not the first time Intel has been in the foundry business and the pervious times they had a process advantage.
Apple had no choice with 14nm, TSMC did not deliver the wafer capacity Apple required. It was a good lesson for all and definitely changed the face of the foundry business.
I guess I ask this because I wonder if there is even a point? Does better technology even matter? Does investing in a foundry ecosystem matter? Is the best course of action for these IDMs to make the best node for their product, and throw out their PDKs in case a Qualcomm wants to help amortize your costs by playing chicken with TSMC? Are SFS and IFS just wastes of time/distractions that could be better spent being fast followers or innovators for the things that matter to their own logic product stacks?
Nobody likes monopolies which is why there will always be a NOT TSMC market. Just like AMD used to be the NOT Intel supplier. How long was AMD on life support? Now AMD has added BETTER THAN Intel market share. Lisa Su has been with AMD for 10+ years? IFS and SFS have the same opportunity but it will take time. Does Pat have 10 years in him? Samsung Foundry changes executives like socks so the clock keeps getting reset.
Just my opinion of course...