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Feedback welcome for our latest paper on the China 2025 IC plan


New member
There's been some interest, including in this forum, in the China investment plans in the IC industry. My colleague and I (at the U.S. International Trade Commission) recently published a working paper on this topic, which can be found at the link below:

We use the market share assumptions found in the Made In China 2025 Green Paper on Technological Innovation in Key Areas (2017) to project future production and consumption, market growth, market share trends in each country/region. We find that if the Green Paper’s assumptions hold, the competitiveness of the IC industries in the U.S., EU and Japan will decrease significantly. We conclude however that the Green Paper uses highly questionable assumptions and highly optimistic growth projections, making these shifts in production and consumption unlikely to be realized as forecast.

We'd be interested in your feedback/criticism/reaction.


New member
Good catch - something for us to fix. The blue is line is China's IC market size and the red is the rest of the world.

For figure 3 (which also seems to be missing the labels), blue bar is IC consumption is China and red is IC production in China.



Figure 10 is also problematic. One can't tell whether the blue bar represents China or RoW.
Then why is China or RoW zeroed in Fig10?

Arthur Hanson

Active member
The larger question will be IP protection and licensing for all sides on an international scale. Also jurisdiction and fairness of any court will be critical in these cases. How the Honk Kong issue is handled will relate directly to how the Chinese government is viewed by the rest of the world and how they honor or don't honor the agreements they signed in an open and transparent negotiation.