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The keys to TSMC's 100 Billion dollar cap-ex spend is their sales growth rate of 25% and net profit of 38% on projected sales this year of 54 billion. With Intel set to send their high-end chip business to TSM and their other customers increasing their orders significantly it isn't hard to see their sales growth rate move to 33%. This would more than double their sales in three years. Since TSM only builds to orders these figures are likely very conservative. Since no fab can match either TSM's technology and capital spending it's easy to these figures could be very conservative with sales rapidly approaching and exceeding 100 billion annually. This could easily support a hundred billion capital spend. If you look at all the figures TSM has mastered capital utilization almost better than any company on earth. TSM is a finely tuned technology and economic machine devoted to constantly maintaining technology and financial leads that achieved critical mass both technically and financially. I see TSM becoming a trillion-dollar market cap in the not to distant future.
I remember in January TSMC's CFO mentioned that due to their heavy capital investment, TSMC's Capital Intensity (Capex/Revenue) will hoover around 50% in the coming several years. Using this ratio to forecast TSMC's revenue will come out 3-year total of $200 billion revenue and 3-year average annual revenue around $70 billion.
It's an explosive growth, if we use TSMC's $45 billion revenue in 2020 as a baseline. TSMC always says that they build capacity based on customers' orders instead of speculation. So this $100 Capex indicated multiple large customers have committed to TSMC.
