Machine translated:
Morgan Stanley Securities noted that, due to a slowdown in Microsoft's capital expenditure growth and its comments suggesting that improvements in model efficiency are unfavorable for the supply chain, it has sharply revised down its shipment forecast for Nvidia’s GB200 NVL 72 this year—from 30,000–35,000 containers to 20,000–25,000 containers. In a pessimistic scenario, shipments could even drop below 20,000 containers, with the overall impact on the supply chain estimated at USD 30–35 billion, adding potential volatility to Taiwan stocks during the upcoming Lunar New Year period.
Although Meta’s capital expenditure for 2025 remains relatively robust, Microsoft’s capital expenditure plans are not considered a positive factor for the supply chain. Morgan Stanley has observed that since the third quarter of 2024, investors’ expectations for the GB200 supply chain have been rising. However, as uncertainties in capital expenditure emerge and quarterly growth remains limited, the year-on-year growth rate of cloud capital expenditure could slow to single-digit percentages by the fourth quarter of 2025.
In light of the downward revision in GB200 shipments, Morgan Stanley recommends that, for stocks where Nvidia’s capital expenditure growth exceeds 50% and whose business operations are more heavily weighted toward the GB200 (e.g., Xin Hwa and Jing Yuan Electronics), the risk-reward profile becomes less attractive. In contrast, companies that are less dependent on Nvidia’s capital spending (e.g., Shixin-KY) are relatively more defensive.
Despite the downward revision of the 2025 shipment forecast for the GB200 NVL 72, Morgan Stanley also pointed out that network communications and power remain the main bottlenecks for the GB200—and resolving these issues will take time.
Morgan Stanley Securities noted that, due to a slowdown in Microsoft's capital expenditure growth and its comments suggesting that improvements in model efficiency are unfavorable for the supply chain, it has sharply revised down its shipment forecast for Nvidia’s GB200 NVL 72 this year—from 30,000–35,000 containers to 20,000–25,000 containers. In a pessimistic scenario, shipments could even drop below 20,000 containers, with the overall impact on the supply chain estimated at USD 30–35 billion, adding potential volatility to Taiwan stocks during the upcoming Lunar New Year period.
Although Meta’s capital expenditure for 2025 remains relatively robust, Microsoft’s capital expenditure plans are not considered a positive factor for the supply chain. Morgan Stanley has observed that since the third quarter of 2024, investors’ expectations for the GB200 supply chain have been rising. However, as uncertainties in capital expenditure emerge and quarterly growth remains limited, the year-on-year growth rate of cloud capital expenditure could slow to single-digit percentages by the fourth quarter of 2025.
In light of the downward revision in GB200 shipments, Morgan Stanley recommends that, for stocks where Nvidia’s capital expenditure growth exceeds 50% and whose business operations are more heavily weighted toward the GB200 (e.g., Xin Hwa and Jing Yuan Electronics), the risk-reward profile becomes less attractive. In contrast, companies that are less dependent on Nvidia’s capital spending (e.g., Shixin-KY) are relatively more defensive.
Despite the downward revision of the 2025 shipment forecast for the GB200 NVL 72, Morgan Stanley also pointed out that network communications and power remain the main bottlenecks for the GB200—and resolving these issues will take time.