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China will NOT invade Taiwan

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
China will not invade Taiwan for the repercussions would be beyond belief. Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, and most of Europe would impose sanctions and maybe even military action against China. India and Russia might see an opportunity for a power grab. No one would like the most advanced fabs in the world to be taken offline for at least months if not permanently if military action is taken. If a Chinese military action took place, the chance of replacing any equipment or materials would be very hard if not impossible. to keep the fabs running. China would literally make an enemy of most of the world as the lack of high-end chips mangled the world economy. The economic damage from a military conflict would be beyond belief if the Silicon Shield was severely damaged. Therefore we may only assume the Chinese feel they can bluff Taiwan into capitulation. I feel this is not an option for more than anyone the Taiwanese know the Chinese word is nothing as indicated by abrogating the treaty with Britain over Hong Kong and the denial of any due process after their take over of Hong Kong. Any military action would severely damage both sides to such an extent the whole world would be thrown into a depression. The fact that semi-fabs are very fragile and require constant input from around the world shows the Chinese are just posturing, hoping the Taiwanese will accept a peaceful takeover which the Taiwanese with their Silicon Shield would have no motivation to accept with nothing to gain and much to lose. Any thoughts or additions are welcome and solicited.

Also, this calls into question any need for subsidies to build additional fabs that could flood the market. It looks like posturing on all sides with multi-billion-dollar stakes. Maybe China should just buy TSM stock instead, a much better investment. The more I look at this, I see the greatest poker game in history taking place with lots of chips. Forgive my humor.
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