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China will get fabs running ASAP

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
China will get the fabs up and running as fast as possible for they realize without the chips, many, many products cannot be built and their economy will suffer greatly. The main reason this will happen as quickly as possible is that China has a command system that will not let politics and other obstacles get in the way, like in western countries, harsh, but a reality.
 
China will get the fabs up and running as fast as possible for they realize without the chips, many, many products cannot be built and their economy will suffer greatly. The main reason this will happen as quickly as possible is that China has a command system that will not let politics and other obstacles get in the way, like in western countries, harsh, but a reality.

What is your logic/source for China’s sudden urgency, and the economics of <=14nm, both worldwide and China, if you know.
 
What is your logic/source for China’s sudden urgency, and the economics of <=14nm, both worldwide and China, if you know.
Actions speak louder than words and TSM's order book speaks volumes. China is working hard to supply even low end chips that are key to a whole host of industries and products while threatening very blatantly to want to take over Taiwan for the high end chips. Actions speak louder than words and almost every industrial power is scrambling to acquire or build the chips needed at all levels to stay competitive.
 
China is scrambling to acquire or build the chips needed at all levels to stay competitive.

China’s plans to become the world’s leader in chip manufacturing by 2030 was initiated in 2014.

China has been highly focused on fabricating chips for nearly a decade, and more so, when the US sanctioned EUV tools from ASML, years ago. Further, the current chip shortage has been also well known since mid-2020.

A year ago, after spending CNY130B (USD 20B) China’s Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (HSMC) filed for bankruptcy. During the last year or so, many semiconductor projects in China have completely failed.

Clearly China is not going to make their 2030 target, if ever, and certainly not for trying very hard for many years.

My question was and still is, since you have intimated that there is “suddenly” some new urgency for China chip manufacturing that they didn’t have the last few years, do you have a source for such sudden urgency, or is it inferential?
 
Building a semiconductors fab is not like building a car manufacturer. A semi fab requires specialized equipment which is not made in China, requires certification of the technology process and constant maintenance of the equipment and masks, testing and LYA (Low Yield Analysis), etc. So, it is easy to say "build a semi fab" but it is not easy at all and that is why it takes a lots time and money to build one (besides finding the experienced people to run the fab).
 
China’s plans to become the world’s leader in chip manufacturing by 2030 was initiated in 2014.

China has been highly focused on fabricating chips for nearly a decade, and more so, when the US sanctioned EUV tools from ASML, years ago. Further, the current chip shortage has been also well known since mid-2020.

A year ago, after spending CNY130B (USD 20B) China’s Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (HSMC) filed for bankruptcy. During the last year or so, many semiconductor projects in China have completely failed.

Clearly China is not going to make their 2030 target, if ever, and certainly not for trying very hard for many years.

My question was and still is, since you have intimated that there is “suddenly” some new urgency for China chip manufacturing that they didn’t have the last few years, do you have a source for such sudden urgency, or is it inferential?
Japan Kiaxia are looking for partners to test their 5nm manufacturing method. Instead of going the ASML way, maybe they may have a cost effective way. I don,t think it is going to continue to make economic sense if the strangulation of technology are the price that humanity pays. Take for instance the cryogenic industries. Before the Chinese came into the picture, I have to throw out all my economic justification out of the window with American, European and Japanese equipment. But that all change when the Chinese start to produce these product domestically,, so I think if we ever want to serve the Asia and Africa continent,,, all politics are just mad-house parliment affair,, but the market can or cannot accept is not the parliment house in London or Washington that decide. The guys in Nairobi can afford to buy is decide by the $$. So when I look into EUV and DUV,, i have always ask..I am sure there is a better method.. If we can sputter complex alloys..and different matrix of material,, why we have to rely on UV ?
 
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My question was and still is, since you have intimated that there is “suddenly” some new urgency for China chip manufacturing that they didn’t have the last few years, do you have a source for such sudden urgency, or is it inferential?
Huawei was recently banned from receiving FCC approval for their products.[1] US investors were also banned from investing in their company.[2] Around this time, TSMC also cut off Huawei's chip supply.[3]

Therefore, Huawei, which apparently is important to the CCP, will need to employ leading edge processes for chip manufacturing from somewhere else, like China. Hence, the urgency.

This isn't the first time China has tried to invest heavily to dominate the markets. It's just like them to do this.
"There is a quote from Deng Xiaoping: 'The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.' But that was just the beginning." -- Hanns Günther Hilpert [4]

It's only a matter of time, unless something really big changes -- maybe like this: [5]

I don't claim that the CPP will be able to advance their technology any faster than before, but they certainly have the impetus to do so.




[1]: https://www.zdnet.com/article/us-pr...n-huawei-and-zte-from-receiving-fcc-licences/
[2]: https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/3/2...-american-investment-chinese-firms-huawei-zte
[3]: https://www.anandtech.com/print/15915/tsmc-confirms-halt-to-huawei-shipments-in-september
[4]: https://www.dw.com/en/how-chinas-mines-rule-the-market-of-critical-raw-materials/a-57148375
[5]: https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-u...duction-wean-off-chinese-imports_2999724.html
 
China’s plans to become the world’s leader in chip manufacturing by 2030 was initiated in 2014.

China has been highly focused on fabricating chips for nearly a decade, and more so, when the US sanctioned EUV tools from ASML, years ago. Further, the current chip shortage has been also well known since mid-2020.

A year ago, after spending CNY130B (USD 20B) China’s Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (HSMC) filed for bankruptcy. During the last year or so, many semiconductor projects in China have completely failed.

Clearly China is not going to make their 2030 target, if ever, and certainly not for trying very hard for many years.

My question was and still is, since you have intimated that there is “suddenly” some new urgency for China chip manufacturing that they didn’t have the last few years, do you have a source for such sudden urgency, or is it inferential?
Xi is an absolute dictator and has demanded it and put China's massive resources behind it. If they have to beg, borrow or steal technology to do it, they will. This has been proven time and time again. I wish the US and China could learn to cooperate and collaborate to take advantage of both their strong points, but this would take good leaders with wisdom on both sides and this is very sadly lacking. I hope tech leaders on both sides could solve the problem and I believe they could if the politicians could find it in their minds to get out of the way and unleash the massive power coming with AI/ML that will be the greatest revolution for its power to leverage resources on a scale not even imagined.
 
"There is a quote from Deng Xiaoping: 'The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.' But that was just the beginning." -- Hanns Günther Hilpert [4]

[4]: https://www.dw.com/en/how-chinas-mines-rule-the-market-of-critical-raw-materials/a-57148375
As far as I know the only really useful thing from your cited article is "Smelting, for example, is also primarily done in China." "'Rare' earths" aren't really all that rare as the map shows, what's rare is the ability and willingness to refine them from their ores, which has been described probably pretty accurately as "boiling them in acid 1,000 times." So as usual Green friction makes it uneconomical to refine them in the West, although at this moment I'm more worried about how they and anti-Russia policies have made manufacturing nitrogen fertilizer uneconomical in Europe.
Xi is an absolute dictator and has demanded it and put China's massive resources behind it. If they have to beg, borrow or steal technology to do it, they will.
That sort of thing has not enabled the PRC to make military jet engines as good as Russia's, let alone the rest of the West's.

All of Xi's power in the CCP is not going to make the PRC quickly able to manufacture everything it imports or wants to import from the rest of the world for chip making. EUV in particular sounds extremely doubtful, although for internal purposes larger nodes should be fine, especially since I expect Xi will untangle the mess he's made of electrical production fairly soon. That's an example of much simpler technology where being an "absolute dictator" created a crisis.
 
As far as I know the only really useful thing from your cited article is <snip>
I wasn't trying to link an article that tickled anyone's fancy. I linked it because it's an original source for the quote I used to make a point. Please don't belittle people for citing original sources. They can be painstaking to track down, but if we don't do it than misinformation spreads due to human error.
 
Japan Kiaxia are looking for partners to test their 5nm manufacturing method. Instead of going the ASML way, maybe they may have a cost effective way. I don,t think it is going to continue to make economic sense if the strangulation of technology are the price that humanity pays. Take for instance the cryogenic industries. Before the Chinese came into the picture, I have to throw out all my economic justification out of the window with American, European and Japanese equipment. But that all change when the Chinese start to produce these product domestically,, so I think if we ever want to serve the Asia and Africa continent,,, all politics are just mad-house parliment affair,, but the market can or cannot accept is not the parliment house in London or Washington that decide. The guys in Nairobi can afford to buy is decide by the $$. So when I look into EUV and DUV,, i have always ask..I am sure there is a better method.. If we can sputter complex alloys..and different matrix of material,, why we have to rely on UV ?

Why would 3D NAND manufacture need 5nm node process?It doesn't make any sense
 
Is it possible that China can leapfrog Western innovation by focusing on silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology?
I think using SOI technology it would be possible to manufacture chips with cutting-edge performance metrics on relatively mature nodes, thus avoiding having to go to <7nm, where EUV and other high-tech equipment from the West is needed.
What do you think?
 
Is it possible that China can leapfrog Western innovation by focusing on silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology?
I think using SOI technology it would be possible to manufacture chips with cutting-edge performance metrics on relatively mature nodes, thus avoiding having to go to <7nm, where EUV and other high-tech equipment from the West is needed.
What do you think?
China is already far behind on this technology, both in tooling and IP, that are heavily legally protected by copyright and patent laws. When an empire restricts free thinking, the penalties to themselves are large and compounding. Many times a command economy fails by not allowing outside the box or innovative thinking that is now more than ever driving the world economy forward. Free thinking fares best in a free society. If you restrict free thinking and actions, by definition an individual or power is limiting their own potential.
 
China is already far behind on this technology, both in tooling and IP, that are heavily legally protected by copyright and patent laws. When an empire restricts free thinking, the penalties to themselves are large and compounding. Many times a command economy fails by not allowing outside the box or innovative thinking that is now more than ever driving the world economy forward. Free thinking fares best in a free society. If you restrict free thinking and actions, by definition an individual or power is limiting their own potential.
So what are you worried about then ? I tend to agree that less free nations condemn themselves to slower innovation - innovation demands free thinkers who are not bounded by ideology and trying to produce the pre-approved "solutions".

And if Xi is an "absolute dictactor" (your words) why should we be working with him ? The historical precedents are not good here.

Perhaps the only thing the West is missing right now is self-confidence ? That and getting distracted by things that don't matter.
 
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