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China to become world's largest source of IC wafer capacity by 2026 - Knometa Research

interesting

A substantial portion of the IC wafer capacity in China is owned by foreign companies, Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC, UMC, Powerchip (through its Nexchip subsidiary), Texas Instruments, Alpha & Omega Semiconductor, and Diodes. While China was home to about 19% of the world's wafer capacity at the end of 2023, the share held by Chinese companies was only 11%.
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soAsian said:
knometa.com

China to become world's largest source of IC wafer capacity by 2026

Wafer capacity for IC production is expanding globally, but China is growing fastest and likely to become the world's largest source by 2026.
knometa.com knometa.com

It looks like China is leading in the older node. China is pretty good at mass produce once they master the art (tech) just like solar panels and EV car.
Click to expand...

China is largely playing the same game TSMC has played, except even more aggressively.

TSMC has lost its focus on the mainstream market share when it started competing with IDMs for the leading edge.

SMSC was building world largest 200mm fab when even laggards were moving to 300mm for good. It was not some kind of sophisticated strategy of low end roll up, but just exactly the same TSMC's "blot out the sun on the mainstream node with efficiency, and scale".

180nm-90nm are still quite alive, well and growing, despite the complete lack of any technical innovation.
 
Paul2 said:
China is largely playing the same game TSMC has played, except even more aggressively.

TSMC has lost its focus on the mainstream market share when it started competing with IDMs for the leading edge.

SMSC was building world largest 200mm fab when even laggards were moving to 300mm for good. It was not some kind of sophisticated strategy of low end roll up, but just exactly the same TSMC's "blot out the sun on the mainstream node with efficiency, and scale".

180nm-90nm are still quite alive, well and growing, despite the complete lack of any technical innovation.
Click to expand...
Interesting statement. Just wondering if the mature nodes TAM is less than 10% and keeps decreasing, all equipment vendors focus more on advanced nodes which count more than 70% of their revenue, will leading companies like tsmc or WFE leading companies spend more money on mature nodes? My opinion, there would be some specialty nodes are emerging but definitely not the major focus and will keep the old fab as cash cow after depreciation complete.
 
hskuo said:
Interesting statement. Just wondering if the mature nodes TAM is less than 10% and keeps decreasing, all equipment vendors focus more on advanced nodes which count more than 70% of their revenue, will leading companies like tsmc or WFE leading companies spend more money on mature nodes? My opinion, there would be some specialty nodes are emerging but definitely not the major focus and will keep the old fab as cash cow after depreciation complete.
Click to expand...

The volumes of ancient nodes was increasing, because nobody would make discretes, and trivial ICs on immersion steppers, but the total semi market been increasing faster than it, with the main driver being smartphones.

will leading companies like tsmc or WFE leading companies spend more money on mature nodes
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No. Their financial backers will not swallow that even if they understood the trick. And by their own words, they have fully focused on the leading edge. Third, there are no engineers, and technicians. And the final nail, there are no more new 200mm tools.
 
I would say we are many years away from when the cheapest 300mm will approach the most advanced 200mm project in cost at MOQ.
 
Paul2 said:
TSMC has lost its focus on the mainstream market share when it started competing with IDMs for the leading edge.
Click to expand...
Really? TSMC has focused on satisfying its customers and maximizing profit. Running low volume 20 year old 200 mm processes for slim margins is a lousy business you would only pursue if you had no other option. IMO.
 
milesgehm said:
Really? TSMC has focused on satisfying its customers and maximizing profit. Running low volume 20 year old 200 mm processes for slim margins is a lousy business you would only pursue if you had no other option. IMO.
Click to expand...

For the TSMC, the mainstream would be 65-28, where non-DP, and non-immersion nodes are. It's still a very huge market volumes-wise.

200mm is quite profitable, but: no equipment, no workers, the market will eventually cool down from the peak COVID craze 200mm wafer prices.
 
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