China, Become Taiwan's best customer

[Arthur Hanson]

It is far more economic and diplomatic for China to become Taiwan's best customer than try a military take over. China is far closer to Taiwan shipping-wise than their other customers and a military/diplomatic/business conflict would be horribly expensive in time, money, and reputation. Bringing China's manufacturing talents and Taiwan's tech talents together would be a winner, while conflict would have almost no upside and a huge downside. Becoming Taiwan's largest customer has staggeringly more upside than the conflict that would have a huge downside and damage spread worldwide. Become a customer like Apple, which has operations in China, and China could be the big winner. If China waits, this opportunity could disappear as high-end fabs are entering construction outside of China. The choice is simply between a strategy with almost no downside and one with an almost infinite downside. China could prosper greatly by recognizing Taiwan and becoming not only their largest customer but a major investment in many companies that are market leaders in Taiwan. Economically, politically and speed of progress this would be by far not only China's best investment business-wise, but the chance to gain worldwide respect as a valuable business partner of wisdom and maturity. The choice is China's and China's alone and the world is watching.

Taiwan should become the Switzerland of semiconductor fabrication, which even Hitler decided not to invade on his general's advice.

comments and additions solicited and welcome.

 

[kingmouf]

My understanding is that China *was* rapidly becoming one of Taiwan's (more specifically TSMC and the rest) customers until the US decided to cut this off. Huawei until banned was one of the largest customers of TSMC and rapidly growing and it was followed by a number of other companies.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

My understanding is that China *was* rapidly becoming one of Taiwan's (more specifically TSMC and the rest) customers until the US decided to cut this off. Huawei until banned was one of the largest customers of TSMC and rapidly growing and it was followed by a number of other companies.

We really need to keep politics out of the semiconductor industry. Chips are now like oil or any other life sustaining resource. We can no longer live without them. Cutting off the supply of chips to a country should be considered an act of war and only done as a very last resort. If China had open access to technology like the rest of the world I serious doubt there would be the political aggression we see today. I see no hope of any country being semiconductor independent anytime soon so we should really play nice, just my opinion of course.

 

[Barnsley]

We really need to keep politics out of the semiconductor industry. Chips are now like oil or any other life sustaining resource. We can no longer live without them. Cutting off the supply of chips to a country should be considered an act of war and only done as a very last resort. If China had open access to technology like the rest of the world I serious doubt there would be the political aggression we see today. I see no hope of any country being semiconductor independent anytime soon so we should really play nice, just my opinion of course.

One would think that that would be a sensible policy going forwards , however the lack of trust between all parties would seem to put paid to any such thoughts.

Now that they are just getting back in the war game action , where is Russia in the world of semicon , do they contribute much as I never hear them mentioned. As they seemingly only make weapons that look like they need a lot of electronics , I would have thought they would be right at the leading edge.

 

[lilo777]

One would think that that would be a sensible policy going forwards , however the lack of trust between all parties would seem to put paid to any such thoughts.

Now that they are just getting back in the war game action , where is Russia in the world of semicon , do they contribute much as I never hear them mentioned. As they seemingly only make weapons that look like they need a lot of electronics , I would have thought they would be right at the leading edge.

Russia (and USSR before it) has had a fully independent semiconductor industry (including manufacturing of the semi manufacturing equipment). It was never very advanced but it existed. That's not the case anymore. They still have some FABs but those are very outdated. They do have expertise in chip design, chip architecture, OS and compiler design etc. They design chips using proprietary architecture as well as RISC V. They use Taiwan for manufacturing. I have no first hand knowledge about the chips they use to make weapons but I suspect those chips don't necessarily have to be on the leading edge. It has been reported that they are experiencing some problems with building satellites because they started relying on imported electronics and right now certain types of electronics are embargoed for them.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

We really need to keep politics out of the semiconductor industry. Chips are now like oil or any other life sustaining resource. We can no longer live without them. Cutting off the supply of chips to a country should be considered an act of war and only done as a very last resort. If China had open access to technology like the rest of the world I serious doubt there would be the political aggression we see today. I see no hope of any country being semiconductor independent anytime soon so we should really play nice, just my opinion of course.

I agree politics should be kept out of the semi-world for the good of all, but Russia, China, and North Korea among others have made cybercrime and cyberwar priorities and must be taken into account. Semis have changed everything and opened whole new horizons. Knowledge without responsibility is a highly dangerous combination and semis have become key in creating and using it.

 

[Zaim]

Semiconductor and chip manufacturing technology is becoming the most critical capability in the world. Those who have the leading technology in chip making (7 nm , and now it is going to be 3 nm soon), and those who make this possible (the EUV capability that can draw 3nm chip on silicon , ASML in the Netherlands) would be the most critical assets in the world. Look at Huwaei, when the US cut the supply of the leading technology chips to this company and the company couldn't have any choice but have to decide to stop its very successful smart phone design and manufacturing business (they were just becoming the leader in the smart phone business) and sold it. This shows that if you have no access to the leading edge chips you are dead. So this access is very vital. The best chip in the world is manufactured by TSMC using the EUV machines made by ASML. Therefore, those who want to be a competitor in the sectors like smart phone, HPC, automotive, IoT should have access to the products made by the two companies. Therefore, the political game should be played based on these companies.

 

[kvas]

We really need to keep politics out of the semiconductor industry. Chips are now like oil or any other life sustaining resource. We can no longer live without them. Cutting off the supply of chips to a country should be considered an act of war and only done as a very last resort. If China had open access to technology like the rest of the world I serious doubt there would be the political aggression we see today. I see no hope of any country being semiconductor independent anytime soon so we should really play nice, just my opinion of course.

I very much agree with you about "we need" in the sense that it would be very good to do it. But semiconductors are an important source of power and access to their manufacturing (or control of it) is a serious bargaining chip in the geopolitical game so I'm not optimistic about semiconductors and geopolitics going their separate ways any time soon :/