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China’s semiconductor industry has been rocked by new US export controls as tensions grow between Washington and Beijing.
China’s semiconductor industry has been rocked by the mass resignation of American workers after new restrictions were announced by US President Joe Biden’s administration. The export controls, which the US said was needed to “protect US national security and foreign policy interests”, restrict the ability of China to “purchase and manufacture certain high-end chips used in military applications”. The restrictions ban the export of US semiconductor equipment that cannot be provided by any foreign competitor. There’s also a licence requirement for the export of American tools or components to China-based fabrication plants. And critically, any US citizen or entity is required to seek permission from the US Department of Commerce before providing support to Chinese plants.
I had thought we would continue with the status quo with China and semiconductors. It looks like that is not the case anymore. In fact, I would say that 2023 will be an even more exciting time in the semiconductor geopolitical history books, absolutely.
The US should worry more about its own competance. Semiconductor knowledge will continue to ramp world wide regardless of attempted emabargos. Stay on the curve or become incompetent.
If embargo applies to spare parts for semi equipment, that would soon cause many fabs to shut, unless they can make their own spare parts (unlikely). Also, lack of support from Field Process and Equipment engineers from US would be disasterous for newly installed (latest technology) fab equipment. Chaos on the fab floor.
The United States International Trade Commission is an independent, nonpartisan, quasi-judicial federal agency that fulfills a range of trade-related mandates. We provide high-quality, leading-edge analysis of international trade issues to the President and the Congress. The Commission is a...
Now we’ll see.
1) Is it possible to cut Applied, Lam, ASML and TEL completely out of the spare parts ecosystem?
2) How unique are the western parts, really?
3) Can Applied, Lam, ASML and TEL survive being cut out of the Chinese parts ecosystem?
4) Will this issue remain just a China thing
Predictions (need to check in on this in 12 months, maybe longer)
1) No, but not because of parts; software
2) Not very unique
3) Some can adapt, but I’m guessing TEL and ASML cannot. This is bad. The industry is in doubt unless all 4 can survive.
4) Easy one, no, like COVID this isn’t just a China thing. We are going to see a parts nuclear winter, that is global.
The United States International Trade Commission is an independent, nonpartisan, quasi-judicial federal agency that fulfills a range of trade-related mandates. We provide high-quality, leading-edge analysis of international trade issues to the President and the Congress. The Commission is a...
