Biden should invest in TSM, not Intel

[lilo777]

This is definitely not true, you may have misconceptions on how democratic system running in Taiwan.

Are you saying that it's running better than it used to in Hong Kong? I have no idea about the specific details. I am just drawing conclusions based on the historical precedents. As I understand we have one people with two political systems. Well, political systems evolve and change - sometimes very quickly. Let's not forget that Taiwan was a rather brutal dictatorship not so long ago. At the time, the dictatorship did not want to unite with equally or more brutal regime on the main land. Both systems evolved since then but I doubt they can erase common history that goes back thousands of years.

In any case, the assumption that Taiwan will never reunite with China is not somethhing US should rely on in making strategic decisions.

 

[lilo777]

No thanks. I'd rather a big chunk of it go to universities for targeted research, or DARPA-style / X-Prize-style efforts to solve key problems without placing any restrictions on who is most likely able to solve them. Because nobody knows who is most likely to solve them; maybe it's some small startup.

And what are the US "goals" in the semiconductor industry? Goals for what? Building fabs? Building fab equipment? Improving packaging technology? Redesigning key circuit elements to take up less silicon area by improving compatibility with smaller process geometries? Improving EDA tools? Creating economic incentives for supply chain resilience?

I believe the goal is self reliance. Whether it is feasible in the long run is not clear. Eventually US may not be able to afford it but right now we are inching towards a cold war with China. This will probably be shaping up government decision making for many years to come.

 

[Portland]

I would split off a few of intel's fabs and form a pure play company. Subsidies will be necessary as well as the right leadership. Having a pure play company that can rival tsmc in the us is important enough to bend the rules.

Workers want routines and don't like change. Tsmc has a foundry routine and it works. Intel's idm routine still makes money but is being decimated by the competition. The idm and foundry thing isn't working.

 

[scottyouminlin@gmail.com]

Are you saying that it's running better than it used to in Hong Kong? I have no idea about the specific details. I am just drawing conclusions based on the historical precedents. As I understand we have one people with two political systems. Well, political systems evolve and change - sometimes very quickly. Let's not forget that Taiwan was a rather brutal dictatorship not so long ago. At the time, the dictatorship did not want to unite with equally or more brutal regime on the main land. Both systems evolved since then but I doubt they can erase common history that goes back thousands of years.

In any case, the assumption that Taiwan will never reunite with China is not somethhing US should rely on in making strategic decisions.

Making judgements by ideology, not fact, is dangerous. It took less than 40 years to build up the hi-tech, semi, machinery, etc industries, and also the democratic system, in Taiwan. How come it had not been happened in China in the same period? Just like USA, Taiwan is an independent country with its own constitution, law, government and military forces. Whatever China Communist party's messages, it is an invasion, rather than so called 'reunite'.

Please note TSMC itself does not rely on US government's subsidence in developing the advanced process technology and the ecosystem. So as Taiwan.

 

[lilo777]

Making judgements by ideology, not fact, is dangerous. It took less than 40 years to build up the hi-tech, semi, machinery, etc industries, and also the democratic system, in Taiwan. How come it had not been happened in China in the same period? Just like USA, Taiwan is an independent country with its own constitution, law, government and military forces. Whatever China Communist party's messages, it is an invasion, rather than so called 'reunite'.

Please note TSMC itself does not rely on US government's subsidence in developing the advanced process technology and the ecosystem. So as Taiwan.

No, Taiwan is not an independent country like US. It is not recognized as such by anybody (but a few small countries paid by Taiwan). In fact, I believe modern Taiwan has never declared independence. The only instance when Taiwan did declare independence was in 1895 (from Wikipeda): In 1895, subsequent to the Treaty of Shimonoseki, officials in Taiwan declared independence in the hope of returning the island to Qing rule. That was independence from Japan though.

US do not support Taiwan independence either: But the administration does not support Taiwan independence and understands the sensitivities involved, Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell said Tuesday. I believe that the consensus is that the moment Taiwan formally declares independence, China will attack as they are not going to tolerate this.

Discussing the merits of the social systems in Taiwan and the main land is clearly beyond the scope of this blog. That's not something I would do anyway for I have insufficient knowledge about the situation. Nor do I think US Government cares about this as much as they claim. US were fully supporting a brutal dictatorship in Taiwan which maintained martial law on the island for 38 years (1949 to 1987). It's all geopolitics. All I am saying is that given the complicated status of Taiwan one should not expect US Government to treat it as, say, Netherlands. This has nothing to do with TSMC achievements which are obvious to everyone. In fact, it is those achievements combined with the complicated Taiwan status that make US Government worried. If it was Netherlands (or, say, GB) it is quite possible that the government would tolerate US lagging behind for longer.

 

[dhsu]

We have been over this many times. Do we really need to go over it again and againg? I believe you mentioned before that you own TSMC shares. And now you want US Government do the same? As I said before, US Government does not invest for profits (they have a money press for this), they invest for security and prosperity of its people. Investing in Taiwan does not fit their charter.

Arthur may own TSM shares (I have no idea), but ...

https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.ph...-of-biggest-chipmaking-rival.15189/post-49754

 

[lilo777]

Arthur may own TSM shares (I have no idea), but ...

https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.ph...-of-biggest-chipmaking-rival.15189/post-49754

And? I am not creating a thread after thread arguing that the government should invest in Intel. In fact I am nor arguing for that at all. I am just pointing out that the idea of US government investing in TSMC is unrealistic. Even if I were personally to benefit from the CHIPS act this would be a very marginal benefit at best for I am just an employee not an investor. The number of FABs Intel builds is not going to increase my income.
Do I have some bias? Possible. I expect everyone to have some degree of bias based on personal experiences. This does not mean we can't have a meaningful discussion.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

If the US had been more careful with capital allocation and spent far, far less on failed military actions and useless drug wars(alcohol(C2H5OH is among the worst for it's a nonspecific solvent that attacks everything). The same goes for China. Those who master collaboration and cooperation are the real heroes of mankind, not those who elevate conflict to military actions of all types. Publications like SemiWiki are a step in the right direction and we need more efforts to bring unity to face the severe challenges the world faces. Armed and commercial conflict will only make us all lose.