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AMD stock crashes as Wall Street reacts to 'weak' outlook
A 9% drop is a crash?
"We are in the very early stages of the AI era," Su said. "This will require significant increases in computer performance. AMD is in a strong position for this opportunity."
Not to jump on the anti AMD bandwagon here but I think domain specific (bespoke) silicon made by Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and the other hyperscalers is a serious threat to AMD and Intel for AI. There are a lot of AI chips in the works that will do ChatGPT and deepfake nonsense much faster and more efficiently than general purpose CPUs and GPUs.
Whatever you call it 9% is very significant after earnings. What's Montague?
It's not just AI that makes these chips dangerous, it's also cloud providers are moving more to ARM based solutions. AMD has no response at all, Intel's is Sierra Forest, and based on when it's going to release, it's probably not going to do much to change the move to ARM. Possibly their follow-up will, but Sierra Forest gives them a footprint in new usage scenarios, particularly those where ARM is most competitive, but it likely won't something that is superlative vis-a-vis their competition. But, it's a start.
The cloud has made the move to different instruction sets a lot easier for users. The move is largely dealt with by the cloud provider, and a lot is insulated from the user. It's a different playing field. x86 doesn't have a "bye" anymore, but then, they didn't in the 1990s either, and prevailed. They may again, but clearly this is a battle that needs to be fought, and the outcome is uncertain.
AMD stock crashes as Wall Street reacts to 'weak' outlook
A 9% drop is a crash?
"We are in the very early stages of the AI era," Su said. "This will require significant increases in computer performance. AMD is in a strong position for this opportunity."
Not to jump on the anti AMD bandwagon here but I think domain specific (bespoke) silicon made by Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and the other hyperscalers is a serious threat to AMD and Intel for AI. There are a lot of AI chips in the works that will do ChatGPT and deepfake nonsense much faster and more efficiently than general purpose CPUs and GPUs.
Is it possible AI / ChatGPT type services will actually drive both ARM and x86/general purpose CPU/GPU growth?
The ARM and other specialized chips will carry the neural networks and whatever tech these AI systems are using.
However, ML is still largely GPU (see Tesla Dojo) and more ML is probably needed to support AI / AGI. AI / AGI will also end up needing access to vast amounts of information residing on “legacy” applications - meaning possibly they’ll need to add more general purpose CPU for the support systems.
Is it possible AI / ChatGPT type services will actually drive both ARM and x86/general purpose CPU/GPU growth?
The ARM and other specialized chips will carry the neural networks and whatever tech these AI systems are using. However, ML is still largely GPU (see Tesla Dojo) and more ML is probably needed to support AI / AGI. AI / AGI will also end up needing access to vast amounts of information residing on “legacy” applications - meaning possibly they’ll need to add more general purpose CPU for the support systems.
From what I have heard 386 based CPUs can be used for housekeeping/support while bespoke silicon will be used for AI processing. It goes back to what Apple and other systems companies have done. In order to stay competitive silicon must be tailored to the software. Can you imagine what Apple would be if they used off the shelf SoCs? The cloud market is just as competitive so Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc... have no choice but for forgo off the shelf chips in favor of custom silicon. It is also a badge of honor taking control of your silicon destiny. Wall Street respects that, absolutely.
The funny thing is, it really went crazy about 25 minutes ago, and then headed back down a bit. Just stock market craziness I think. Intel is up about 4%, but has been steady. Not sure why, but I did see a report Intel insiders are buying more shares, and that sometimes helps.
But, you know as well as I do, sometimes the market does things, just to do things. Once people see it going up, they jump on the bandwagon, until they don't, and it then goes down again. As far as I can tell, there's nothing company-related that caused the choppiness. Just the stock market having some fun.
I hate to say it, I've been involved with that in the past. Bored, and looking for something to spice up my day. It doesn't always end well though .
Edit: Thanks for the post, just shorted some at $90.26. Wish me luck.
Edit: Just covered at $89.26. If you're ever in CT, I'll take you out for some pizza. Quick $500.
Well, I just did, and made a quick $1 a share. But, if I had before the earnings, I would have covered yesterday anyway. I don't really like shorting, so I generally don't like to keep the position too long, especially when an easy and quick profit is there.
From what I have heard 386 based CPUs can be used for housekeeping/support while bespoke silicon will be used for AI processing. It goes back to what Apple and other systems companies have done. In order to stay competitive silicon must be tailored to the software. Can you imagine what Apple would be if they used off the shelf SoCs? The cloud market is just as competitive so Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc... have no choice but for forgo off the shelf chips in favor of custom silicon. It is also a badge of honor taking control of your silicon destiny. Wall Street respects that, absolutely.
I'd argue it's a pervasive advantage among many scenarios. If Intel can create IP building blocks that are small enough to allow extensive customization, and big enough to save a lot of development resources, it's got a big advantage over everyone else. Also given they have the fastest single-threaded processors (outside of mainframes), I'd say they have pretty good IP. Let's see how the execution is, because what looks good on paper, doesn't always translate well to reality.
I'm not sure what a 386 based CPU is though. Something that runs 386 protected mode? Does it imply it's not a pipelined processor, so is super small and cheap to make?
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