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TSMC says demand for smartphones, PCs starting to slow

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Mark Liu TSMC 2022.jpg

HSINCHU, Taiwan -- Consumer electronics demand is showing signs of slowing amid geopolitical uncertainties and COVID-related lockdowns in China, the chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said on Wednesday.

The slowdown is emerging in areas "such as smartphones, PCs, and TVs, especially in China, the biggest consumer market," TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said.

A key Apple supplier, TSMC is the world's biggest contract chipmaker and a barometer of global electronics demand.

Liu also warned that the cost of components and materials are rising sharply, pushing up production costs for tech and chip companies.

"Such pressure could eventually be passed on to consumers," Liu said on the sidelines of an industry event where he was speaking in his capacity as chair of the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association.

Taiwan's semiconductor industry is the world's second-largest chip economy by revenue, behind only the U.S.

"Everyone in the industry is worried about rising costs across the overall supply chain... The semiconductor industry already and directly experienced that cost increase," Liu said, adding that the industry is also concerned about macroeconomic uncertainties this year.

TSMC, however, is not likely to change its growth target and capital expenditure this year, he said.

"Despite the slowdown in some areas, we still see robust demand in automotive applications and high-performance computing as well as internet of things-related devices," he said. "We still cannot meet our customers' demand with our current capacity. We will reorganize and prioritize orders for those areas that still see healthy demand."

TSMC, like other chipmakers, has been struggling to meet demand amid a global semiconductor shortage that emerged in late 2020.

The chairman's remarks come as global institutions have lowered their forecasts for economic growth this year. The International Monetary Fund is set to trim its global forecast for 2022 in April due to the Ukraine war and macroeconomic uncertainty in a number of countries. The IMF previously estimated 4.4% global growth for the year. China, the world's second-largest economy, set a growth target of 5.5% this year, the lowest in 30 years.

There are already signs of slowdown in consumer demand. Nikkei Asia reported on Monday that Apple has reduced orders for its recently released iPhone SE by up to 3 million units.

TSMC in January said it aims to grow by 25% or higher in U.S. dollar terms for revenue this year and spend a record $44 billion in capital expenditure for all 2022.

 
We are certainly in for an interesting year. Inflation, interest rates, and gas prices are rising just when we are getting back to work and will be forced to spend more money. Less discretionary money for sure means less money for cool electronics.

Cutting off Russia is more than a speed bump. GPU prices are already dropping, Russia is very big on crypto currency mining.

Customer wafer inventories are also high, companies have been hording, so I'm surprised to see that TSMC is holding fast on forecasts and CAPEX. My guess is that other markets will play clean up and fill capacity. TSMC N3 is going to be HUGE which will kick off next year. So all is well for TSMC but what about the others in the ecosystem?

Hopefully we can now end the chip shortage narrative....
 
Customer wafer inventories are also high, companies have been hording, so I'm surprised to see that TSMC is holding fast on forecasts and CAPEX. My guess is that other markets will play clean up and fill capacity.
from the article:
"Despite the slowdown in some areas, we still see robust demand in automotive applications and high-performance computing as well as internet of things-related devices," he said. "We still cannot meet our customers' demand with our current capacity. We will reorganize and prioritize orders for those areas that still see healthy demand."
...which is the sentence I zeroed in on when I read this. Or are you talking about the shortage in leading-edge node ICs?
 
The word in the semiconductor ecosystem is that demand is decreasing on all fronts. I chatted with Wally Rhines, Malcolm Penn and other industry insiders, podcasts will follow. Automotive has a big backlog but other market segments do not. In fact other markets have wafer inventory. Crypto mining is a very volatile market (Russia and China). Apple is cutting forecasts, other SoC companies are following suite with price cuts. We are definitely on the down side of the next rollercoaster hill. The question is: How big will the drop be? Malcolm says we will be back to single digit growth in 2023. I'm still hoping for double digit 10-15% but certainly not the 26% we had last year.

The 2021 Electronic Design report will be out next week and we have the SEMI CEO Outlook event coming up: https://store-us.semi.org/products/esd-alliance-2022-ceo-outlook we should know more than. We also have the first big live conference (DesignCon) next week so more information coming after that.

TSMC might also have a bubble coming in the form of Intel for N3E in 2023-2024. Does Intel stay on TSMC or do they switch back to internal fabs at 20 and 18A in 2025? Either way TSMC will have the biggest node in their history at N3 thanks to Intel, AMD, Apple, MediaTek, QCOM, and NVIDIA. Samsung 5nm, 4nm, 3nm is a swing and a yield miss.

Exciting times in the semiconductor industry, absolutely.
 
The word in the semiconductor ecosystem is that demand is decreasing on all fronts. I chatted with Wally Rhines, Malcolm Penn and other industry insiders, podcasts will follow. Automotive has a big backlog but other market segments do not. In fact other markets have wafer inventory. Crypto mining is a very volatile market (Russia and China). Apple is cutting forecasts, other SoC companies are following suite with price cuts. We are definitely on the down side of the next rollercoaster hill. The question is: How big will the drop be? Malcolm says we will be back to single digit growth in 2023. I'm still hoping for double digit 10-15% but certainly not the 26% we had last year.

The 2021 Electronic Design report will be out next week and we have the SEMI CEO Outlook event coming up: https://store-us.semi.org/products/esd-alliance-2022-ceo-outlook we should know more than. We also have the first big live conference (DesignCon) next week so more information coming after that.

TSMC might also have a bubble coming in the form of Intel for N3E in 2023-2024. Does Intel stay on TSMC or do they switch back to internal fabs at 20 and 18A in 2025? Either way TSMC will have the biggest node in their history at N3 thanks to Intel, AMD, Apple, MediaTek, QCOM, and NVIDIA. Samsung 5nm, 4nm, 3nm is a swing and a yield miss.

Exciting times in the semiconductor industry, absolutely.

"TSMC might also have a bubble coming in the form of Intel for N3E in 2023-2024. Does Intel stay on TSMC or do they switch back to internal fabs at 20 and 18A in 2025?"

During the January 13, 2022 earnings conference call, TSMC CEO C. C. Wei replied a question about the possibility of Intel switching from outsourcing to insourcing:

"Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

Yes. Sorry. My second question is about one of your IDM customer, which has been a top 10 customer for TSMC, but now they are also re-entering the foundry market aggressively and wanting to compete head to head with TSMC. How does TSMC navigate this situation, given the market is also expecting this customer to be a bigger revenue contributor for TSMC in the HPC area over the next couple of years? Just wanted to understand how management thinks about this business relationship, given that for some of the other IDM customers who are foundry competitors, TSMC doesn't do much business with them.

Jeff Su - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Director of IR

Okay. Gokul, let me summarize your second question. Gokul's second question is in terms of a specific IDM customer of TSMC, but this customer is also entering foundry and also -- so his question is how do we navigate the relationship given that in the past, we do not really work with IDMs who compete with us?

C. C. Wei - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - CEO Okay.

Gokul, This is C.C. Wei. Let me emphasize that we always operate in a good faith and support all our customer opening and fairly. And the IDM customer has been the same. That's also that TSMC's good customer. We also understand that the IDM customer has their own plans for future insourcing, and we already have taken this into our capacity planning consideration. Did I answer your question?

Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

Is there any way for you to protect your longer-term growth when you deal with this kind of a customer? Just wanted to understand how it differs from your traditional fabless customers where I think that insourcing question is not really on the table?

C. C. Wei - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - CEO

Well, as I said, we have already taken into -- this into our capacity planning consideration. And our capacity planning is based on the long-term market demand profile, underpinned by the industry megatrend of 5G and HPC and the semiconductor content enrichment in many end devices. And we do not depend on any one single customer or product. Okay?

Jeff Su - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Director of IR

Okay, Gokul? Yes. Thank you, Gokul."
 
Last edited:
"TSMC might also have a bubble coming in the form of Intel for N3E in 2023-2024. Does Intel stay on TSMC or do they switch back to internal fabs at 20 and 18A in 2025?"

During the January 13, 2022 earnings conference call, TSMC CEO C. C. Wei replied a question about the possibility of Intel switching from outsourcing to insourcing:

"Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

Yes. Sorry. My second question is about one of your IDM customer, which has been a top 10 customer for TSMC, but now they are also re-entering the foundry market aggressively and wanting to compete head to head with TSMC. How does TSMC navigate this situation, given the market is also expecting this customer to be a bigger revenue contributor for TSMC in the HPC area over the next couple of years? Just wanted to understand how management thinks about this business relationship, given that for some of the other IDM customers who are foundry competitors, TSMC doesn't do much business with them.

Jeff Su - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Director of IR

Okay. Gokul, let me summarize your second question. Gokul's second question is in terms of a specific IDM customer of TSMC, but this customer is also entering foundry and also -- so his question is how do we navigate the relationship given that in the past, we do not really work with IDMs who compete with us?

C. C. Wei - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - CEO Okay.

Gokul, This is C.C. Wei. Let me emphasize that we always operate in a good faith and support all our customer opening and fairly. And the IDM customer has been the same. That's also that TSMC's good customer. We also understand that the IDM customer has their own plans for future insourcing, and we already have taken this into our capacity planning consideration. Did I answer your question?

Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

Is there any way for you to protect your longer-term growth when you deal with this kind of a customer? Just wanted to understand how it differs from your traditional fabless customers where I think that insourcing question is not really on the table?

C. C. Wei - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - CEO

Well, as I said, we have already taken into -- this into our capacity planning consideration. And our capacity planning is based on the long-term market demand profile, underpinned by the industry megatrend of 5G and HPC and the semiconductor content enrichment in many end devices. And we do not depend on any one single customer or product. Okay?

Jeff Su - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Director of IR

Okay, Gokul? Yes. Thank you, Gokul."
I think TSMC is counting on AMD to eat most of the leftover capacity when Intel decides to leave TSMC. So the demand will stay high for TSMC nodes no matter what Intel decides to do.
 
Is it fair to say that while some of the leading edge demand is "softening" (But still quite strong historically), this "softening" doesn't apply to older nodes at this point? I think I saw another article recently where TSMC said demand for chips was still exploding..
 
Rumor: Right now Intel and TSMC are discussing 2025 (binding) contract. TSMC asked for a big prepayment.

So if Intel want to leave TSMC and do it by themselves in 2026, Intel need to decide in 2023 next year.
How confident is Intel for the future 20A 18A yield? Intel probably have no idea right now.

It's a very difficult and risky decision for Intel.
 
Is it fair to say that while some of the leading edge demand is "softening" (But still quite strong historically), this "softening" doesn't apply to older nodes at this point? I think I saw another article recently where TSMC said demand for chips was still exploding..

Yeah, I think that's a fair assessment.
 
I think TSMC is counting on AMD to eat most of the leftover capacity when Intel decides to leave TSMC. So the demand will stay high for TSMC nodes no matter what Intel decides to do.
In addition to AMD, Mediatek, Qualcomm, and Nvidia all have the potential to split the N3 capacity left by Intel if Intel decides to switch back to inhouse manufacturing.
 
Rumor: Right now Intel and TSMC are discussing 2025 (binding) contract. TSMC asked for a big prepayment.

So if Intel want to leave TSMC and do it by themselves in 2026, Intel need to decide in 2023 next year.
How confident is Intel for the future 20A 18A yield? Intel probably have no idea right now.

It's a very difficult and risky decision for Intel.
It's more than the yield. Intel's capacity, EUV tools availability, financial consequences, and pride all need to be considered in advance.
 
It's more than the yield. Intel's capacity, EUV tools availability, financial consequences, and pride all need to be considered in advance.

TSMC can plan capacity expertly, the bubble I was referencing is revenue if Intel goes back internal. Personally I don't think they can due to what you mentioned above. For the big capacity customers, they must sign a deal with TSMC 2-3 years prior to HVM to ensure capacity. TSMC fabs really are build to order. Pat Gelsinger would have to make a very big gamble by not signing up for TSMC N2. The question is how big will Pat go? How confident is Pat on the Intel 20 and 18A HVM? Not to mention the additional pressure of big foundry customers (QCOM/NVDA).

We still do not know how well Intel will do on N3E against AMD. This is the first time Intel and AMD have been on the same process at the same time. AMD certainly has the advantage since they have been working closely with TSMC since N7 but Intel has serious design muscle.

Exciting times, absolutely.
 
TSMC can plan capacity expertly, the bubble I was referencing is revenue if Intel goes back internal. Personally I don't think they can due to what you mentioned above. For the big capacity customers, they must sign a deal with TSMC 2-3 years prior to HVM to ensure capacity. TSMC fabs really are build to order. Pat Gelsinger would have to make a very big gamble by not signing up for TSMC N2. The question is how big will Pat go? How confident is Pat on the Intel 20 and 18A HVM? Not to mention the additional pressure of big foundry customers (QCOM/NVDA).

We still do not know how well Intel will do on N3E against AMD. This is the first time Intel and AMD have been on the same process at the same time. AMD certainly has the advantage since they have been working closely with TSMC since N7 but Intel has serious design muscle.

Exciting times, absolutely.
Well AMD also has Xilinx now. But Intel has been hiring lot of engineers lately so surely their competetiveness will go up.
 
Well AMD also has Xilinx now. But Intel has been hiring lot of engineers lately so surely their competetiveness will go up.
Perhaps. But not necessarily. Depends whether their management and design processes are up and running efficiently for TSMC design and fabs. Brooks' First Law may apply here ("adding more resources to a late project only makes it later"). As with the Russian army in Ukraine, adding quantity may not make much difference if the basic quality isn't there and there isn't time to fix the quality issues.
 
Perhaps. But not necessarily. Depends whether their management and design processes are up and running efficiently for TSMC design and fabs. Brooks' First Law may apply here ("adding more resources to a late project only makes it later"). As with the Russian army in Ukraine, adding quantity may not make much difference if the basic quality isn't there and there isn't time to fix the quality issues.
I agree. The quality over quantity is really important. But I still think Intel's competetiveness will increase in the upcoming years. But I still think that AMD and Nvidia are on the trajectory to basically become equals or perhaps even bigger companies than Intel will be in few years.
 
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