China Surges Past Americas and Japan in IC Capacity

[Daniel Nenni]

It is interesting to note that almost half of China semiconductor capacity is of foreign origin. Hopefully that will keep us safe from an all out world war over semiconductors. Kind of like Starbucks and American food franchises. What would the world do if those supply chains were broken?

China Surges Past Americas and Japan in IC Capacity

Back in 2012, China ranked fifth among seven regions worldwide in IC wafer capacity but surged past the Americas and Japan in 2018 and 2019 to claim the number three position. That’s a big deal given that ICs account for the largest share of wafer capacity, excluding discrete, opto, MEMS and...

blog.semi.org

Back in 2012, China ranked fifth among seven regions worldwide in IC wafer capacity but surged past the Americas and Japan in 2018 and 2019 to claim the number three position (figure 1). That’s a big deal given that ICs account for the largest share of wafer capacity excluding discrete, opto, MEMS and sensors.

China’s IC wafer capacity growth accelerated to tune of 14% in 2019 and 21% in 2020 and is expected to grow at least 17% this year, as we report in the latest update of the World Fab Forecast, published December 3rd by SEMI. Of all regions, Taiwan boasts the second strongest growth rate over the same period at 3% to 4%.

 

[thensui]

The trend will only accelerate imho. From the mentioned international companies INTEL switches away mostly from owing production. Logic and in particular their memory capacity impact is about to vanish. TSMC has the node advantage and stays relevant. UMC I am not sure. Either way both are closely connected to China. Some may dare to call them Chinese companies Samsung has still scale advantages in memories, and maybe a good 3-5nm node. Hynix I see in trouble. China is working 24/7 on their semi independence. As cutting edge node importance declines (and architectural/packaging advances take over to push semiconductor products forward) their indigenous wafer capacities will only increase. I predict the US is going to suffer tremendously mid, long term. There may be a way to stay sort of relevant if a way is found to compete and cooperate with China. Certainly not if Biden continues ultra protective policies Trump&Co have started. my $0.02

 

[peter]

I wonder what the graphs would look like if we took utilization or revenue/profits into account, I'd imagine China's proportion would be quite a bit lower.

 

[Paul2]

The trend will only accelerate imho. From the mentioned international companies INTEL switches away mostly from owing production. Logic and in particular their memory capacity impact is about to vanish. TSMC has the node advantage and stays relevant. UMC I am not sure. Either way both are closely connected to China. Some may dare to call them Chinese companies Samsung has still scale advantages in memories, and maybe a good 3-5nm node. Hynix I see in trouble. China is working 24/7 on their semi independence. As cutting edge node importance declines (and architectural/packaging advances take over to push semiconductor products forward) their indigenous wafer capacities will only increase. I predict the US is going to suffer tremendously mid, long term. There may be a way to stay sort of relevant if a way is found to compete and cooperate with China. Certainly not if Biden continues ultra protective policies Trump&Co have started. my $0.02

China has world's biggest semi market, bigger than the rest of the world combined, and a strong repellent against foreign investors.

I would say it is remarkable for how long it wasn't in the game, rather than it becoming a player now.

Given their track record, they can one day show a vulgar middle finger gesture to another China across the straight, or Koreans, and have their industry instantly gobble 20-30% of the global semiconductor market.

This is what was done to Google, the moment their own alternative was ready, and the domestic advertising market became commercially substantial, they give Google a kick, and Tencent+Baidu instantly gain the whole of Chinese Internet ads market. Tens of billions in free profit overnight.