Google and Nvidia Consider Intel as Backup Chip Manufacturer - The Information

[my_wing]

I thought Elon Musk wanted to license Intel's 14A process technology and produce chips at SpaceX–Tesla's own Terafab. It would have no effect on Intel Foundry's capacity and utilization. Has something changed recently?

That he might hit a problem, because there isn't any ASML high NA euv machine available for him before 2030, He speak Dutch i.e Afrikaans, there is no communication gap between him and ASML.

 

[hist78]

That he might hit a problem, because there isn't any ASML high NA euv machine available for him before 2030, He speak Dutch i.e Afrikaans, there is no communication gap between him and ASML.

You underestimate Elon Musk. His vision for Terafab is to allow people to eat, drink, and possibly smoke next to the production line. In that sense, ASML's EUV tools are not only disqualified but also unnecessary.

 

[clarkchang]

All depends on Elon Musk, what Intel needs is not a real cash from customer, it needed a real commitment to 14A, let say if Elon Musk sign a commitment of 30 million chip then the capacity will be 30 million chip i.e around 300K waffle.

Another one that is not on the surface is how many Apple needs.

Intel Internally will budget for 480K waffle p.a., anything extra need commitment from Customer.

The next is 18A capacity allocation, therefore how many waffle and its allocation of Intel 3 in 2028:
Question and Answer that the CEO needed to make:
How he think the market of iGPU, can the new "Lakes" desktop CPU can be within 5% of AMD will be offer.
A - if that is the case, then they can use a "weak" GPU and start arrange iGPU on top desktop GPU to have "weak" iGPU, since those machine will have 6080 anyway.
B - If the desktop still can't be within 5% of AMD will be offer then pair it with a strong iGPU to go for mid-range market. Then Intel 3 is out of the picture goes for Arc 3 on 18A.

Then the next best thing is how Steam going to react:
Since in pure performance the current panther lake is ahead of what AMD is offering, can Intel get the Steam 2 or another offering like PSP xbox ... . If that is the case then they needed 18A capacity to be doing iGPU.

Then of course the 14A capacity is going to be upward of 500K waffle p.a. for Intel internal alone. Because if the desktop design is great again, that will impact the server market and that 500K is just to signal the Intel server market recovery. Although that is 3 years away, but they can get Dell for commitment since the server market is running so hot. Ask Dell to be committed helps Intel to get its cash flow forecasted, allocated better availability for those who will be committing now

If Apple and SpaceX is all fully committed, then Intel can easily go to the bank and get some cash flow, but if not then 500K, the most likely situation is 750K p.a.

For ASML EXE 5200 is listed as 175 per hour, but remember that GAA is 4 layers for 18A (assume that is 4 in 14A), I am not an insider but I think they needed 2-3 runs for each layer, that is already 8 runs, plus the top 3 line layer will be High NA EUV, that make it 10-12 run, then the maths, but I don't have that much time and as I don't have perfect data it is so difficult to estimate, so in short I think Intel needs 10 - 16 High NA EUV to make any sense to reach a reasonable level.

What if there will be no more than 10 HiNA EUV in Intel by end of 2028 even 2029. Will you change you forecast? That's the most fundamental question I have for recent Intel "positive" news. All the "huge" demand from newspapar can't match HiNA EUV shipment.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

What if there will be no more than 10 HiNA EUV in Intel by end of 2028 even 2029. Will you change you forecast? That's the most fundamental question I have for recent Intel "positive" news. All the "huge" demand from newspapar can't match HiNA EUV shipment.

Do we know when Intel will use HNA-EUV? From what I have heard it is not 14A for foundry customers.

 

[clarkchang]

Do we know when Intel will use HNA-EUV? From what I have heard it is not 14A for foundry customers.

14A is potentail node for Intel in HNA, but definitely not tsmc A14 (at least not first generation A14). Even Intel won't use HNA in 14A, Intel still don't have sufficient low-NA EUV capacity for "huge" demand in newspaper now. Let's keep monitoring

 

[my_wing]

14A is potentail node for Intel in HNA, but definitely not tsmc A14 (at least not first generation A14). Even Intel won't use HNA in 14A, Intel still don't have sufficient low-NA EUV capacity for "huge" demand in newspaper now. Let's keep monitoring

No they will, if the mask size can fit, because High NA EUV mask can produce a chip that is in max 1/2 size of Low NA EUV. So if the Mask size can fit then it is High NA EUV, we are not 100% sure i.e. stitching

What if there will be no more than 10 HiNA EUV in Intel by end of 2028 even 2029. Will you change you forecast? That's the most fundamental question I have for recent Intel "positive" news. All the "huge" demand from newspapar can't match HiNA EUV shipment.

ASML is production rate is around 12 p.a. High NA Machine is not assembly in Europe, but whether the location of the installer, in Intel case that is USA. Take a gain of salt from ASML, and let say there is 8 machine that ASML produce per year, and half of them is allocated to Intel, that is around the level that 4 per year, so that by 2028 Intel with the initial 2025 allocation (2 added) should have at least 10 if not even more by Q4 2027. So I don't need to change my forecast, when I did a bit of research even using AI only, Google AI shows me that 12 p.a. 50-60% to Intel ongoing, my forecast is rough but is still sounded.

In the main time, the research machine and whether they slowly install should address the required for initial tape out, using the shape of Clearwater Forest and/or Panther Lake, they might be using that to do an initial testing tape out already. This is the advantage of internal fab, they can do an High NA EUV run and still get a working chip and sell it as it is, no one know / care that the chip was made using High NA or not, they can ramp the new machine quickly and master the stitching process.

14A is potentail node for Intel in HNA, but definitely not tsmc A14 (at least not first generation A14). Even Intel won't use HNA in 14A, Intel still don't have sufficient low-NA EUV capacity for "huge" demand in newspaper now. Let's keep monitoring

My forecast on TSMC timeline is around 2035, so this is that bad, is just like a Boeing / Airbus, you needed to pay to get a slot, even you think that slot is very expensive, at the end, TSMC is running B747/A340 but your competitor is running B787/B777/A350, the economic will not work out. Even if A14 is on Low NA, if I am CC Wei, I will now buy a slot, since even I pay now for the slot, it will only be available in 2032 at best

 

[clarkchang]

No they will, if the mask size can fit, because High NA EUV mask can produce a chip that is in max 1/2 size of Low NA EUV. So if the Mask size can fit then it is High NA EUV, we are not 100% sure i.e. stitching


ASML is production rate is around 12 p.a. High NA Machine is not assembly in Europe, but whether the location of the installer, in Intel case that is USA. Take a gain of salt from ASML, and let say there is 8 machine that ASML produce per year, and half of them is allocated to Intel, that is around the level that 4 per year, so that by 2028 Intel with the initial 2025 allocation (2 added) should have at least 10 if not even more by Q4 2027. So I don't need to change my forecast, when I did a bit of research even using AI only, Google AI shows me that 12 p.a. 50-60% to Intel ongoing, my forecast is rough but is still sounded.

In the main time, the research machine and whether they slowly install should address the required for initial tape out, using the shape of Clearwater Forest and/or Panther Lake, they might be using that to do an initial testing tape out already. This is the advantage of internal fab, they can do an High NA EUV run and still get a working chip and sell it as it is, no one know / care that the chip was made using High NA or not, they can ramp the new machine quickly and master the stitching process.


My forecast on TSMC timeline is around 2035, so this is that bad, is just like a Boeing / Airbus, you needed to pay to get a slot, even you think that slot is very expensive, at the end, TSMC is running B747/A340 but your competitor is running B787/B777/A350, the economic will not work out. Even if A14 is on Low NA, if I am CC Wei, I will now buy a slot, since even I pay now for the slot, it will only be available in 2032 at best

I fell you overestimate Intel's business and way-underestimate tsmc. My personal forecast is that Intel will have only 6 HNA by end of 2028, which can contribute ~15k wspm or even 10k only (1 or 2 HNA stay in R&D, 3 or 4 used for HVM). tsmc will start HNA HVM in A10 and A14-Gen2 in late 2029. The reason tsmc doesn't use HNA earlier is the same reason as they sticked with immersion machine in N7 --> EUV machine was not matured and qual-pattern was still manageable.
There are two HNA in tsmc today, which is maybe fewer than Intel, but don't think it means tsmc will never use HNA EUV until 2035.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Dr. Chan currently serves as a member of the Board of Advisors at Intel Corporation since 2022.

I know Chi Foon from Synopsys. He really knows his wine! Lip-Bu also joined the Intel board in 2022 so there is a connection.