Google and Nvidia Consider Intel as Backup Chip Manufacturer - The Information

[my_wing]

I thought Elon Musk wanted to license Intel's 14A process technology and produce chips at SpaceX–Tesla's own Terafab. It would have no effect on Intel Foundry's capacity and utilization. Has something changed recently?

That he might hit a problem, because there isn't any ASML high NA euv machine available for him before 2030, He speak Dutch i.e Afrikaans, there is no communication gap between him and ASML.

 

[hist78]

That he might hit a problem, because there isn't any ASML high NA euv machine available for him before 2030, He speak Dutch i.e Afrikaans, there is no communication gap between him and ASML.

You underestimate Elon Musk. His vision for Terafab is to allow people to eat, drink, and possibly smoke next to the production line. In that sense, ASML's EUV tools are not only disqualified but also unnecessary.

 

[clarkchang]

All depends on Elon Musk, what Intel needs is not a real cash from customer, it needed a real commitment to 14A, let say if Elon Musk sign a commitment of 30 million chip then the capacity will be 30 million chip i.e around 300K waffle.

Another one that is not on the surface is how many Apple needs.

Intel Internally will budget for 480K waffle p.a., anything extra need commitment from Customer.

The next is 18A capacity allocation, therefore how many waffle and its allocation of Intel 3 in 2028:
Question and Answer that the CEO needed to make:
How he think the market of iGPU, can the new "Lakes" desktop CPU can be within 5% of AMD will be offer.
A - if that is the case, then they can use a "weak" GPU and start arrange iGPU on top desktop GPU to have "weak" iGPU, since those machine will have 6080 anyway.
B - If the desktop still can't be within 5% of AMD will be offer then pair it with a strong iGPU to go for mid-range market. Then Intel 3 is out of the picture goes for Arc 3 on 18A.

Then the next best thing is how Steam going to react:
Since in pure performance the current panther lake is ahead of what AMD is offering, can Intel get the Steam 2 or another offering like PSP xbox ... . If that is the case then they needed 18A capacity to be doing iGPU.

Then of course the 14A capacity is going to be upward of 500K waffle p.a. for Intel internal alone. Because if the desktop design is great again, that will impact the server market and that 500K is just to signal the Intel server market recovery. Although that is 3 years away, but they can get Dell for commitment since the server market is running so hot. Ask Dell to be committed helps Intel to get its cash flow forecasted, allocated better availability for those who will be committing now

If Apple and SpaceX is all fully committed, then Intel can easily go to the bank and get some cash flow, but if not then 500K, the most likely situation is 750K p.a.

For ASML EXE 5200 is listed as 175 per hour, but remember that GAA is 4 layers for 18A (assume that is 4 in 14A), I am not an insider but I think they needed 2-3 runs for each layer, that is already 8 runs, plus the top 3 line layer will be High NA EUV, that make it 10-12 run, then the maths, but I don't have that much time and as I don't have perfect data it is so difficult to estimate, so in short I think Intel needs 10 - 16 High NA EUV to make any sense to reach a reasonable level.

What if there will be no more than 10 HiNA EUV in Intel by end of 2028 even 2029. Will you change you forecast? That's the most fundamental question I have for recent Intel "positive" news. All the "huge" demand from newspapar can't match HiNA EUV shipment.