Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

[MKWVentures]

They need to ramp down Intel 7 and increase Intel 3/18A output if IFS needs to show to be profitable now is a perfect time to ramp Intel 3 cause of the demand but they are still not ramping it. Intel 7 is a poorly designed node from cost perspective

100% agree

the shortage gives them the leverage to push people off of 7 (there are people on 10 too). they we can see if they can make 18A cost effective with higher volume.

FYI: one way to track this. In future we will know that there is success when Intel states that GM improved due to increased 18A loadings and less loading on Intel 7. Previously, the opposite was stated (18A lowers margins, Intel 7 increases margins). Intel always does a "GM walk" in the 10Q so this should be clear.

 

[my_wing]

Based on what I have seen with the first big wave of 2nm design starts: TSMC will have 90%+ and the remaining 10% will be split between Samsung, Intel Foundry, and Rapidus, similar to what happened at 3nm. I am not counting the Intel internal products or the Samsung internal products.

TSMC was first with the N2 PDK and by first I mean the first solid working PDK, not a press release PDK. TSMC also had the N3 ecosystem fully support N2. The TSMC N3 ecosystem was the largest I have seen and that went straight to TSMC N2. No other foundry has anything even close to what TSMC N2 has and this includes packaging.

The next big battle will be at 1.4nm which should be settled in 1H 2027. Thus far there is a lot of activity with Intel 14A, that is what Lip-Bu is out selling. Samsung is busy with 2nm yield but last I heard is making good progress. The Samsung SAFE event is today (I was not invited ) but from what I have been told the Samsung 1.4 process has been delayed due to 2nm yield learning.

The question is: How big will the 1.4 NOT TSMC market be?

I think it will double or triple from 10% due to supply chain diversification issues if and only if the Intel 14A PDK is successfully launched in Q1 2027. If there are delays or problems (like what happened with Intel 18A) TSMC will again have 90%+ market share. Just my opinion of course.

I think TSMC is just a paper tiger, look good on paper, in practices their specs is not as good as Intel.

For Example in 2nm class node:
TSMC have little or no BSPD (only A16), 3 layers GAA, pmos FINEFT, ....
Just like this, how you can say that Intel is going to be behind TSMC N2 in tech.

For TSMC to be into 14A/A14 class node with the following tech forecast is (not pure marketing and PR):
Photoresist - MOR (TEL & TSMC) vs Dry (LAM & Intel - possible)
Exposure - Quad Patterning Vs Applied Materials Sculpta + High NA EUV

The recent CNBC / Bloomberg visit to Intel's Fab they mentioned they totally block out a machine (as their secret sauce) I wondering are they Sculpta and/or Lam Dry Photoresist

To lay a node foundation, you needed certain improvement in underlaying tech, for Intel, their more active, will the Dry Vs MOR photoresist evolve to be the next Nikon Vs ASML this time is TEL Vs LAM, I am not sure.
From my previous comments I made, I think SK Hynix is very well management, their public statement to jump to Dry Photoresist put in a lot of weight. On the other hand, I think CC Wei is at the Bob Swarm level, totally off.

How big the 1.4nm market for TSMC be?
0% since A14 is just going to be a rebranded N2Class tech, while Intel 14A with additional tech roadmap is a true 1.4nm class.

In my point of view 1.4nm class will be a equipment upgrade race while 1.0nm is a CFET race.
1.4nm is the refine GAA and BSPD race and 1.0 the transistor change it sharp again to CFET.
1.4nm is to enable a better GAA, whether Nano sheet, nano wire .... is the GAA shape enhancement node, while some true change will be on 1.0nm class to CFET