TSM Ecosystem Critical to the US Economy as its products

[Arthur Hanson]

It is not just TSM that the US governments have invested in, but the mind set and ecosystem structure that TSM will bring with them. TSM has a superior ecosystem structure and mindset that the US desperately needs to stay in the game. Intel lost this when Andy Grove left and has never recovered from. Hopefully the mindset and ecosystem TSM brings to the US will benefit our entire high-tech ecosystem. This will be as important as the products TSM produces here, maybe even more so. I hope US business leaders take note. Any thoughts or comments on this appreciated.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

I agree completely, it is all about the ecosystem.

 

[delong.height]

It is not just TSM that the US governments have invested in, but the mind set and ecosystem structure that TSM will bring with them.

US invested in what? The funds that has been rewarded but not yet delivered, it's now the end of 2024. And soon Trump will be elected, he will freeze the fund shortly after he get elected because that's been done under Biden, and he's not getting any credit. Guess what, he's going to use that as bargain to ask even more to be relocated. If TSM doesn't want to, Trump is going to raise the taxes on them. So good luck to TSM.

You are overconfident that they bring the full ecosystem or R&D with them, because everything is done in Taiwan then there're cargo ship/flight that's being shipped from Taiwan because TSMC knows Intel has been kept an eye on their talent, so it's dubious that they bring more good engineers here.

And come on, don't think private companies should do any good to the government when the government issue a blank check but choose not to honor it on time, delay, delay and delay, it should be for the stakeholders, the company's shareholders, employees, and customers, whether it be TSMC or Intel or Samsung. US government hasn't done anything for TSMC yet asking for returns? That's not how things should work. Here is the thing, give out the fund to companies that has been rewarded, but not kept them and let these companies to wait for years and years. Intel has been asking for and lobby that money since the beginning of 2021, yet it's 2024, and things still haven't been delivered. Don't tell me that Intel is any national champion or anything because that's not how a champion should be treated, nor should TSMC.

And also Intel isn't any worse than TSMC, they have proved it, delivering 18A on time, with Panther lake showing OS boot. We don't know what the performance is going to be like because it's based on multiple factors. But this company has gone from not using EUV in any production plant to Intel 3 being in the fab now, with Intel 18A coming later the year, and many other flavors of Intel 12, Intel 3 T/P, 18A, 14A. They are doing it, and there will be bumps along the way. But no one can sit there and make laugh. It's US policy that has been broken since day 1. There's no industrial policy what's so ever that would ever encourage a company like TSMC to be founded!

 

[OneEng]

US invested in what? The funds that has been rewarded but not yet delivered, it's now the end of 2024. And soon Trump will be elected, he will freeze the fund shortly after he get elected because that's been done under Biden, and he's not getting any credit. Guess what, he's going to use that as bargain to ask even more to be relocated. If TSM doesn't want to, Trump is going to raise the taxes on them. So good luck to TSM.

You are overconfident that they bring the full ecosystem or R&D with them, because everything is done in Taiwan then there're cargo ship/flight that's being shipped from Taiwan because TSMC knows Intel has been kept an eye on their talent, so it's dubious that they bring more good engineers here.

And come on, don't think private companies should do any good to the government when the government issue a blank check but choose not to honor it on time, delay, delay and delay, it should be for the stakeholders, the company's shareholders, employees, and customers, whether it be TSMC or Intel or Samsung. US government hasn't done anything for TSMC yet asking for returns? That's not how things should work. Here is the thing, give out the fund to companies that has been rewarded, but not kept them and let these companies to wait for years and years. Intel has been asking for and lobby that money since the beginning of 2021, yet it's 2024, and things still haven't been delivered. Don't tell me that Intel is any national champion or anything because that's not how a champion should be treated, nor should TSMC.

And also Intel isn't any worse than TSMC, they have proved it, delivering 18A on time, with Panther lake showing OS boot. We don't know what the performance is going to be like because it's based on multiple factors. But this company has gone from not using EUV in any production plant to Intel 3 being in the fab now, with Intel 18A coming later the year, and many other flavors of Intel 12, Intel 3 T/P, 18A, 14A. They are doing it, and there will be bumps along the way. But no one can sit there and make laugh. It's US policy that has been broken since day 1. There's no industrial policy what's so ever that would ever encourage a company like TSMC to be founded!

IIRC, Intel 10 booted an OS quite some number of years before it was ready for prime time. I am not sure we can call 18A "delivered" yet.

TSMC appears to have a very methodical and conservative approach to process validation. This provides confidence from its foundry customers that their products will be produced effectively, and on-time.

I have a feeling that it is going to take Intel a few years to develop such a discipline as they currently appear to be in the "shoot the moon" phase of development. For me, it is kinda like the SpaceX rocket. Everyone cheers when one works, but I can't help but remember the previous 5 blowing up on national TV. Not sure I would want to buy a ticket for that ride. My concern for Intel is that chip companies may feel the same way about 18A.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

US invested in what? The funds that has been rewarded but not yet delivered, it's now the end of 2024. And soon Trump will be elected, he will freeze the fund shortly after he get elected because that's been done under Biden, and he's not getting any credit. Guess what, he's going to use that as bargain to ask even more to be relocated. If TSM doesn't want to, Trump is going to raise the taxes on them. So good luck to TSM.

You are overconfident that they bring the full ecosystem or R&D with them, because everything is done in Taiwan then there're cargo ship/flight that's being shipped from Taiwan because TSMC knows Intel has been kept an eye on their talent, so it's dubious that they bring more good engineers here.

And come on, don't think private companies should do any good to the government when the government issue a blank check but choose not to honor it on time, delay, delay and delay, it should be for the stakeholders, the company's shareholders, employees, and customers, whether it be TSMC or Intel or Samsung. US government hasn't done anything for TSMC yet asking for returns? That's not how things should work. Here is the thing, give out the fund to companies that has been rewarded, but not kept them and let these companies to wait for years and years. Intel has been asking for and lobby that money since the beginning of 2021, yet it's 2024, and things still haven't been delivered. Don't tell me that Intel is any national champion or anything because that's not how a champion should be treated, nor should TSMC.

And also Intel isn't any worse than TSMC, they have proved it, delivering 18A on time, with Panther lake showing OS boot. We don't know what the performance is going to be like because it's based on multiple factors. But this company has gone from not using EUV in any production plant to Intel 3 being in the fab now, with Intel 18A coming later the year, and many other flavors of Intel 12, Intel 3 T/P, 18A, 14A. They are doing it, and there will be bumps along the way. But no one can sit there and make laugh. It's US policy that has been broken since day 1. There's no industrial policy what's so ever that would ever encourage a company like TSMC to be founded!

The AZ state government has invested heavily in semiconductors including TSMC. Texas is also investing heavily in the semiconductor ecosystem with Samsung and others. The federal government will invest as well. I live in California, a very Democratic state, so I don't see how Trump will win but anything is possible. I am making no bets this year and will be voting for None of the Above.

Intel 18A has not been delivered yet which is another reason why you can't compare Intel to TSMC. Booting an OS is not delivering in the foundry business. Shipping millions of SoCs is delivering. As I said before, TSMC N3 dominated like never before and TSMC N2 looks to be the same. Hopefully Intel Design will use 18A and that can be leveraged for future foundry business. If Intel design keeps using TSMC I see no leverage.

As compared to Samsung, Intel is killing it. As compared to TSMC, Intel Foundry is still a work in progress. It is important to keep expectations in check. TSMC sets realistic customer expectations then exceeds them. That is what Intel Foundry and Samsung Foundry needs to do moving forward.

 

[delong.height]

IIRC, Intel 10 booted an OS quite some number of years before it was ready for prime time. I am not sure we can call 18A "delivered" yet.

Intel 18A has not been delivered yet which is another reason why you can't compare Intel to TSMC. Booting an OS is not delivering in the foundry business. Shipping millions of SoCs is delivering.

What you said is correct. But Intel's investor need confirmation more than anything. It's booting, that's a good sign. It has customer, a positive sign. It goes in production, that's very good.

For Intel, everything has to be different because the past management had been very dishonest and incapable, which is why as an Intel investor myself, I want to see every detail to be announced. They have to be fully transparent.

For TSMC, it is a standard. But that standard doesn't apply to Intel, at least not for now because people need that confirmation. TSMC wins the position they are in today. So every word they say are trustworthy. But Intel aren't

 

[Arthur Hanson]

With AI becoming more dominant in everything and its use expanding dramatically, countries that don't have access to AI chips on a large scale will shortly be left behind. The leaders will have had more time to master the use of AI than the followers and the gap will widen at an exponential rate leading to economic disruption not only for the host country, but their competition in almost everything.