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Trump's Undersecretary of Defense for Policy repeatedly said TSMC fabs should be destroyed if China invades Taiwan

BruceA said:
China would like to buy advanced GPU-Nope
China would like to buy advanced tools like EUV, nope
China would like to enlist TSMC to make advanced GPU, CPU or APC, nope

All those goodies for western democracies you communist stay in the dark ages.

How did we get here ?
Click to expand...
I assume you were being sarcastic?

If I have to put the future of the world into either western democracies or communist totalitarian dictatorships, I think I would rather it be the former.

Now, I am perfectly aware of how imperfect western democracies are, but at the end of the day, they are government by the people. Philosophically, I genuinely believe that "the people" as a group provide a much more sound and steady hand on the wheel than a dictator.

All this talk is likely just useless anyway. Trump isn't going to do anything to upset his very wealthy and powerful buddies ...... and nothing upsets this group more than a major economic downturn.

I think it much more likely for Trump to disassemble the oversight of the FED in the US and spawn a huge economic surge ...... which would of course be closely followed by a huge inflationary surge ..... again. Now, this is nearly as stupid (IMO) as destroying TSMC's fabs .... but I think it is much more likely.
 
BruceA said:
China would like to buy advanced GPU-Nope
China would like to buy advanced tools like EUV, nope
China would like to enlist TSMC to make advanced GPU, CPU or APC, nope

All those goodies for western democracies you communist stay in the dark ages.

How did we get here ?
Click to expand...

Ask Chairman Xi, he knows why.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Not impossible, laws change. It would however weaken the Taiwan Silicon Shield so I do not see it happening. All of TSMC leading edge R&D happens in Taiwan. If Taiwan disappeared today the fabs outside of Taiwan would be limited in life. This is the same reason why Intel R&D needs to continue. Semiconductor innovation depends on both Intel and TSMC.
Click to expand...

It's already weakened, with the public acknowledgement of the stance of "we are OK if microchip industry dies, for as long as PRC is not getting it" being considered not only credible, but even desirable. The calculus being "we gift you ROC, and you leave us alone for the time of my presidency", which is already sounds like Biden's catastrophic "we gift you 20% of Ukraine for a peace in our time" (https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-vladimir-putin-ukraine-territory-end-war-nzz-report-1778526)

"The silicon shield" only works for as long as the only credible political, and military force in the Western Bloc with real navy believes that it vitally needs microchips AND the opponent sees that, and thinks the same.

Now we have:

1. an ally who actually thinks that destruction of Taiwanese semi industry is something positive, as long as no one else gets microchips;
2. an enemy who sees that your "ally" is OK with going to iron age instead of having to fight, and who doesn't really cares about going to iron age himself either.

So we have a previously unimaginable situation of both USA and PRC thinking of the destruction of semiconductor industry as a beneficial outcome, because Xi, Biden, and Trump are all octagenarians who never used computers, and who had very sheltered lives without ever knowing how the world works.

The most adverse outcome may well be the one perfectly calculated, and deliberately pursued.

If you look at how the Axis 2.0 went to Ukraine, it's absolutely not an "accident" or a "miscalculation". The invasion was planned extremely extensively, hour-by-hour plans, and target lists for hundreds of units. That required years of preparation, and intelligence gathering. It's just the plan was both very well prepared, and very dumb at the same time.

The orange crowd may actually be thinking of trading Taiwan as a smart move for real.

Overestimating genius is bad, underestimating stupidity is lethal.
 
Last edited:
Paul2 said:
It's already weakened, with the public acknowledgement of the stance of "we are OK if microchip industry dies, for as long as PRC is not getting it" being considered not only credible, but even desirable. The calculus being "we gift you ROC, and you leave us alone for the time of my presidency", which is already sounds like Biden's catastrophic "we gift you 20% of Ukraine for a peace in our time" (https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-vladimir-putin-ukraine-territory-end-war-nzz-report-1778526)

"The silicon shield" only works for as long as the only credible political, and military force in the Western Bloc with real navy believes that it vitally needs microchips AND the opponent sees that, and thinks the same.

Now we have:

1. an ally who actually thinks that destruction of Taiwanese semi industry is something positive, as long as no one else gets microchips;
2. an enemy who sees that your "ally" is OK with going to iron age instead of having to fight, and who doesn't really cares about going to iron age himself either.

So we have a previously unimaginable situation of both USA and PRC thinking of the destruction of semiconductor industry as a beneficial outcome, because Xi, Biden, and Trump are all octagenarians who never used computers, and who had very sheltered lives without ever knowing how the world works.

The most adverse outcome may well be the one perfectly calculated, and deliberately pursued.

If you look at how the Axis 2.0 went to Ukraine, it's absolutely not an "accident" or a "miscalculation". The invasion was planned extremely extensively, hour-by-hour plans, and target lists for hundreds of units. That required years of preparation, and intelligence gathering. It's just the plan was both very well prepared, and very dumb at the same time.

The orange crowd may actually be thinking of trading Taiwan as a smart move for real.

Overestimating genius is bad, underestimating stupidity is lethal.
Click to expand...
Love it! Gave me a good laugh. Thanks. Lethal indeed.

I am of the belief the the orange leader will profit more by protecting Taiwan. It will be seen through the eyes of a transaction, not politics IMO. Want the green leader to back your idea, feed the green leader.

I can see a 4 year issue though.
 
Paul2 said:
My advise for Ukraine would be to quickly build thermonuclear weapons, and destroy Moscow. Should Russian early warning system then fire on USA automatically, well, let it be. Ukraine and Kazakhstan have tons of plutonium in storage.
Click to expand...
Honestly, upgrading the fight to a real war is already a bad idea. The suggestion of nuclear weapons is not only arrogant, but stupid. :)
 
Last edited:
Jert said:
Can't agree more with Mr. Groves.
"Losing the ability to scale will ultimately damage our capacity to innovate."

The way the mature nodes semi manufacturing is being ceded to China will be long term detrimental to the West (and especially the European 3 (Infineon, NXP, ST), which is already happening).
Click to expand...
Yeah European is already showing issues with Cars as well
 
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