Quick summary of a long not paywalled article. He reviewed documents, visited chip plants and interviewed more than 60 people across the government and the tech industry but he did not talk to me. 
For years, U.S. officials have warned that America’s heavy reliance on Taiwan for advanced semiconductors poses a grave national and economic security risk. Taiwan, which produces roughly 90 percent of the world’s most advanced chips, sits at the center of escalating tensions with China, whose leaders have vowed to reclaim the island. In classified briefings to executives from companies such as Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm, national security officials cautioned that a Chinese blockade or invasion could cripple global chip supplies and devastate the U.S. tech sector.
Both the Joe Biden and Donald Trump administrations attempted to reduce this dependence. Biden championed subsidies through the CHIPS Act, allocating $50 billion to boost domestic manufacturing. Trump, by contrast, leaned heavily on tariffs, threatening steep penalties on semiconductor imports to pressure companies into reshoring production. Despite these efforts, many tech firms hesitated, deterred by higher U.S. production costs—often more than 25 percent above Taiwan’s—and concerns about lagging manufacturing technology compared with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the dominant global producer.
A 2022 confidential report commissioned by the Semiconductor Industry Association warned that cutting off Taiwan’s chip supply could trigger the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. economic output could fall 11 percent, with even steeper losses in China. The report underscored how deeply embedded Taiwanese chips are in everything from iPhones to artificial intelligence systems.
Federal officials intensified their campaign after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that geopolitical aggression can override economic self-interest. Intelligence leaders privately warned top executives, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, that China might be prepared to move on Taiwan by 2027. Yet industry action remained slow, as companies prioritized margins and competitive positioning.
Gradually, pressure produced movement. TSMC expanded its Arizona investments, eventually committing an additional $100 billion for new U.S. plants. Nvidia agreed to buy more American-made chips, while Intel—struggling financially—received federal backing, including an unusual equity stake arrangement with the government. Other firms, including Samsung and Tesla, also pledged U.S. manufacturing commitments.
Despite billions in new investments and ambitious targets to shift as much as 40 percent of Taiwan’s semiconductor capacity to the United States, progress remains incremental. Even chips produced in Arizona often require advanced packaging in Taiwan, illustrating how difficult it is to unwind decades of supply chain concentration. While Washington has made strides, Taiwan’s central role in the global semiconductor ecosystem—and the risks tied to it—remain largely intact.
For years, U.S. officials have warned that America’s heavy reliance on Taiwan for advanced semiconductors poses a grave national and economic security risk. Taiwan, which produces roughly 90 percent of the world’s most advanced chips, sits at the center of escalating tensions with China, whose leaders have vowed to reclaim the island. In classified briefings to executives from companies such as Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm, national security officials cautioned that a Chinese blockade or invasion could cripple global chip supplies and devastate the U.S. tech sector.
Both the Joe Biden and Donald Trump administrations attempted to reduce this dependence. Biden championed subsidies through the CHIPS Act, allocating $50 billion to boost domestic manufacturing. Trump, by contrast, leaned heavily on tariffs, threatening steep penalties on semiconductor imports to pressure companies into reshoring production. Despite these efforts, many tech firms hesitated, deterred by higher U.S. production costs—often more than 25 percent above Taiwan’s—and concerns about lagging manufacturing technology compared with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the dominant global producer.
A 2022 confidential report commissioned by the Semiconductor Industry Association warned that cutting off Taiwan’s chip supply could trigger the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. economic output could fall 11 percent, with even steeper losses in China. The report underscored how deeply embedded Taiwanese chips are in everything from iPhones to artificial intelligence systems.
Federal officials intensified their campaign after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that geopolitical aggression can override economic self-interest. Intelligence leaders privately warned top executives, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, that China might be prepared to move on Taiwan by 2027. Yet industry action remained slow, as companies prioritized margins and competitive positioning.
Gradually, pressure produced movement. TSMC expanded its Arizona investments, eventually committing an additional $100 billion for new U.S. plants. Nvidia agreed to buy more American-made chips, while Intel—struggling financially—received federal backing, including an unusual equity stake arrangement with the government. Other firms, including Samsung and Tesla, also pledged U.S. manufacturing commitments.
Despite billions in new investments and ambitious targets to shift as much as 40 percent of Taiwan’s semiconductor capacity to the United States, progress remains incremental. Even chips produced in Arizona often require advanced packaging in Taiwan, illustrating how difficult it is to unwind decades of supply chain concentration. While Washington has made strides, Taiwan’s central role in the global semiconductor ecosystem—and the risks tied to it—remain largely intact.