is there anything wrong with what Peter said?
Supply Chains No More: Semiconductors (is peter accurate?)
- Thread starter soAsian
- Start date
is there anything wrong with what Peter said?
I didn't see anything there that seemed incorrect.
Manufacturing semiconductors is one of the most complex, difficult things we do. The supply chain is long, complicated, and fragile. Covid was a big disruption both on the supply and demand side, so it'll take time to repair the damage. But I also think, like with most things, we will overshoot and build more capacity than needed and will come out on the other side of this with a semiconductor glut in 2-3 years if not sooner.
Manufacturing semiconductors is one of the most complex, difficult things we do. The supply chain is long, complicated, and fragile. Covid was a big disruption both on the supply and demand side, so it'll take time to repair the damage. But I also think, like with most things, we will overshoot and build more capacity than needed and will come out on the other side of this with a semiconductor glut in 2-3 years if not sooner.
He is not wrong but take a look at his credentials:
Zero semiconductor education or experience. I'll pass.
I have said from the beginning that the semiconductor manufacturing shortage is a false narrative. COVID was a black swan event that cut fab utilization in 2019 and 2020 which were are now making up in 2021 and maybe 2022 but certainly not beyond that.
The supply chain issues are real but they are actually helping fabs catch up even quicker since other products are the bottleneck for the systems companies. Also look at housing costs and double digit inflation. At some point in time the COVID fueled consumer buying frenzy has to stop?
Let's see what TSMC says on the Q4 2021 call but my expectation is that it will be business as usual in 2022 with a fab over capacity possibility in 2024/2025.
Zero semiconductor education or experience. I'll pass.
I have said from the beginning that the semiconductor manufacturing shortage is a false narrative. COVID was a black swan event that cut fab utilization in 2019 and 2020 which were are now making up in 2021 and maybe 2022 but certainly not beyond that.
The supply chain issues are real but they are actually helping fabs catch up even quicker since other products are the bottleneck for the systems companies. Also look at housing costs and double digit inflation. At some point in time the COVID fueled consumer buying frenzy has to stop?
Let's see what TSMC says on the Q4 2021 call but my expectation is that it will be business as usual in 2022 with a fab over capacity possibility in 2024/2025.
tooLongInEDA
Moderator
It is astonishing just how many people are oblivious to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor business and - when informed - will insist "this time it's different".