Panther lake delay?

[XYang2023]

he said $15 billion annual external sales by 2030 and if we include internal and increased ASP that should be like easily $40 billion annual revenue if they don't fumble

15 billion external revenues would be well passing breaking-even target set for 2027. The long term operating margin target for Intel Corporate is 40%.

 

[TICin852]

We can see from Intel's last quarterly conference call that their foundry losses have been improving -
they're the least amount of losses since late 2023 - check slide 8 below. If there can be a Windows
11 refresh like several analysts are predicting, Intel could be making additional traction toward their
goal of breakeven in foundry in late 2027.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a830248e18d75609a32024343d20294f/intel/db/861/9103/pdf/Q4+2024+Earnings+Deck+INTC.com.pdf

Subtract the 1.1 billion in grants from the CHIPS act and you get -3.4 billion, they have not improved that much. Plus, we should also subtract at least 1.1 billion from their Q1 numbers as they received another grant in January this year. As for how the current administration handles the grants - we'll see. IFS might not look so rosy in Q2 if they stop receiving all these grants.

 

[XYang2023]

Subtract the 1.1 billion in grants from the CHIPS act and you get -3.4 billion, they have not improved that much. Plus, we should also subtract at least 1.1 billion from their Q1 numbers as they received another grant in January this year. As for how the current administration handles the grants - we'll see. IFS might not look so rosy in Q2 if they stop receiving all these grants.

They also delayed the Ohio project.

 

[Fred Chen]

Break-even in Foundry is due to shifting away from Intel 7 - not an if.

https://au.investing.com/news/transcripts/intel-at-morgan-stanley-conference-strategic-focus-on-foundry-and-ai-93CH-3717172

"""
Can you just remind us of the walkthrough to breakeven in foundry? And how much of that is reliant upon external foundry wins?

John Pitzer, Intel: Yes. To answer the last part of your question first, not very much. I mean, we talked about sort of a target of giving Intel foundry to op profit breakeven by the end of twenty twenty seven. That’s mostly on the back of Intel products and actually mostly on the transition from moving our mix from Intel seven wafers to Intel 18A. As we’ve talked about in the past, as we make that transition, you will see ASP per wafer go up three times faster than cost per wafer.

And it’s really what’s driving us to a breakeven op profit point as we exit 2027.
"""

Really expensive 18A wafers, wonder how much?

 

[ChrisGar]

15 billion external revenues would be well passing breaking-even target set for 2027. The long term operating margin target for Intel Corporate is 40%.

How will Intel do the accounting for Intel Products vs. Intel Foundry ? Will they split the margins between the two ?

 

[DougDD]

The repeal of the Chis Act is unlikely - so this should continue to help INTC's cash flows:

March 5, 2025

Congressional Republicans 'don’t see a huge appetite' for Trump's push to repeal the CHIPS Act

Three aides to Senate Republicans made clear the party has neither the stomach nor the time to engage in a repeal of the bipartisan legislation at this time.

www.nbcnews.com

Subtract the 1.1 billion in grants from the CHIPS act and you get -3.4 billion, they have not improved that much. Plus, we should also subtract at least 1.1 billion from their Q1 numbers as they received another grant in January this year. As for how the current administration handles the grants - we'll see. IFS might not look so rosy in Q2 if they stop receiving all these grants.h

 

[XYang2023]

How will Intel do the accounting for Intel Products vs. Intel Foundry ? Will they split the margins between the two ?

Yes, they will split P&L then merge back at corporate level. They explained it in the conference call.

 

[XYang2023]

Really expensive 18A wafers, wonder how much?

Very expensive TSMC charges too. I think it will be more so given 165B US investments. TSM gross margins are estimated to go down by 4-9%.