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Intel 18A yields at 20-30%?

S

siliconbruh999

Well-known member
The first Panther Lake engineering samples, made with Intel/IFS’s 18A, are currently being tested by major PC ODM/EMS makers. My early 2025 industry survey showed 18A yields below 20-30%, so there’s still a lot of room to step up—which doesn’t bode well for Intel’s goal of hitting mass production in 2H25. On top of the tech challenges, IFS faces a big obstacle in winning outside orders due to its org setup, supply chain mgt, and culture. That’s where TSMC totally stands out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1894054674384523347
 
Curious how he can do survey on the yields. Thought Intel would send the functional chips to each clients with a few grades like U9, U7, and U5. Does he use the number of U9 chips divided by the total number of chips intel clients get? If that is the case, 20-30% yield is actually superb.

I know I am dumb, but someone please teach me on this.
 
chillfire said:
Curious how he can do survey on the yields. Thought Intel would send the functional chips to each clients with a few grades like U9, U7, and U5. Does he use the number of U9 chips divided by the total number of chips intel clients get? If that is the case, 20-30% yield is actually superb.

I know I am dumb, but someone please teach me on this.
Click to expand...
He doesn't tell anything just says yield is this % and that's it the other half of the story makes sense though.
 
the yield numbers could be anything. SRAM, Non-redundant SRAM, Panther lake.... with and without known circuit fixes. Intel should worry about them, Other people should not. Could also be % of working PC test vehicles with Panther lake.... who knows. Its still ES so all bet are off.
 
chillfire said:
Curious how he can do survey on the yields. Thought Intel would send the functional chips to each clients with a few grades like U9, U7, and U5. Does he use the number of U9 chips divided by the total number of chips intel clients get? If that is the case, 20-30% yield is actually superb.

I know I am dumb, but someone please teach me on this.
Click to expand...

Ming-Chi Kuo and his yield survey are full of manure. 18A yields are on track to what they told us last December. From what I have heard there will be external customer 18A tape-outs in 2H 2025 and I have not heard one complaint about yield. In my opinion packaging is much more likely the cause of delays. Multi die packaging is HARD (thermal issues) and we really have just begun. Just ask Nvidia.

I'm not sure why everyone is getting their clicks by bashing Intel but it is an absolute abuse of media. The whole media landscape seems to have lost their way. I really expect better from tech pubs.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Ming-Chi Kuo and his yield survey are full of manure. 18A yields are on track to what they told us last December. From what I have heard there will be external customer 18A tape-outs in 2H 2025 and I have not heard one complaint about yield. In my opinion packaging is much more likely the cause of delays. Multi die packaging is HARD (thermal issues) and we really have just begun. Just ask Nvidia.

I'm not sure why everyone is getting their clicks by bashing Intel but it is an absolute abuse of media. The whole media landscape seems to have lost their way. I really expect better from tech pubs.
Click to expand...

X is not a media or at least not a traditional media. It's a jungle full of amazing junk.
 
So let's see if 18A yields were 10% in December and are 25% (average) in February, then by EOY when they launch they will be at near 100% assuming that rate of improvement. I know yield rate improvement is non-linear but if we are going to look at spurious numbers to begin with why not go all in and take this to the extreme. :)
 
Artificer60 said:
So let's see if 18A yields were 10% in December and are 25% (average) in February, then by EOY when they launch they will be at near 100% assuming that rate of improvement. I know yield rate improvement is non-linear but if we are going to look at spurious numbers to begin with why not go all in and take this to the extreme. :)
Click to expand...
100% yield on a reticle size die 🤣
 
hskuo said:
It is extreme rare to have yield 100% for whole lot even in small die. Unfortunately I do not have the luck to see it in my whole career. Pretty sad.
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Did you mean a lot or a wafer? Perfect wafers in my experience aren't too rare on a 4+ year old process. For a whole 25w lot, yeah that is pretty hard. I bet it isn't too hard to find a passive interposer lot that is perfect though. They are comically simple and perfect wafers are almost an expectation (especially when we are talking 8x reticle stitched dies).
 
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nghanayem said:
Did you mean a lot or a wafer? Perfect wafers in my experience aren't too rare on a 4+ year old process. For a whole 25w lot, yeah that is pretty hard. I bet it isn't too hard to find a passive interposer lot that is perfect though. They are comically simple and perfect wafers are almost an expectation (especially when we are talking 8x reticle stitched dies).
Click to expand...
I had worked in Fab manufacturing for near 30 years. Interposer is quite simple/few layer processes and yes could be quite possible to have 100% yield for few but not many "lots". But the baseline yield could be greater than 95% in this large die size.
 
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