You are currently viewing SemiWiki as a guest which gives you limited access to the site. To view blog comments and experience other SemiWiki features you must be a registered member. Registration is fast, simple, and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
The Chinese economy is in trouble with youth unemployment topping twenty percent. If China invades Taiwan they will lose a big piece of the European and North American markets as just a start. The damage to world commerce by a Chinese conflict that would involve Japan, Australia, South Korea, Philippines, South Korea and many others would be devastating to the export markets they rely on to keep their people employed and cause world wide economic devastation that would make Xi and China pariahs of the world. A quick, clean victory of China over Taiwan is a fool's dream and if attempted will create only losers. Xi and the world need a win/win scenario and war is the last refuge of the incompetent. Hopefully wisdom on all sides will prevail. If China does invade, all will lose and Xi will be one of the most reviled leaders in history. Invading Taiwan would be an insane act with no winners and only losers. Any thoughts, comments or additions solicited and welcome. SemiWiki is an ideal sounding board that I use for investment purposes.
There is understandable fear about what might happen to TSMC should China invade Taiwan, but the United States can ensure China does not inherit the company without physically destroying it.
As AI/ML advance thanks to TSM and the ecosystem that created them, the staggering costs of invading Taiwan to the world economy will only increase. Every day that passes makes invading Taiwan a larger and larger losing proposition. TSM has lower manufacturing costs than just about any other country and building fabs outside of Taiwan will only increase costs by a substantial margin. TSM is one of the best managed companies in the world as noted by even Warren Buffet. Fabs in the US will not match TSM for decades if ever in efficiency or costs. It is in the entire world's interest that Taiwan be left alone. Taiwan is only increasing the value of their "Silicon Shield" by the day. It is in the world's interest that Taiwan be left alone to concentrate on what it has mastered better than any country in the world, making bleeding edge semiconductors. I can only imagine were TSM technologies will be in a decade with advanced layering and chiplet technology. It will be interesting to see if there may be an optical computing chip in the future using photons instead of electrons. If TSM is working in this area, I feel it is a Skunk Works type project kept very, very isolated and with a very tight, trusted staff. It would be hard to imagine a company as advanced as TSM not looking into the future and planning accordingly. It's easy to see a combination of photons and electrons in the future with fab techniques not even dreamed of being looked at as we speak. The other aspect to consider is if China invades and severely damages the world economy their ability to maintain their exports, let alone increase them will be severely damaged threatening their very social structure. Any additions, thoughts and comments in this area appreciated.
it’s definitely not in Chinas economic interests to invade Taiwan and I doubt the invasion will succeed but it’s never been about costs or economics. Taiwan is an emotional issue for the mainland Chinese. They see Taiwan as the last piece required to finish the civil war. Absurd I know but this is how the CCP thinks. Younger Taiwanese increasingly see themselves as separate from mainlanders but the mainlanders are very militant about this trend not occurring. We must do everything possible to stuff Taiwan so full of weapons that any attempted invasion or blockade will be a massacre for the CCP.
